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The earnings per share alone means absolutely nothing, though. To look
at a company's earnings relative to its price, most investors employ the
price/earnings (P/E) ratio. The P/E ratio takes the stock price and
divides it by the last four quarters' worth of earnings. For instance, if,
in our example above, XYZ Corp. was currently trading at $15 a share, it
would have a P/E of 15. Is the P/E the Holy Grail? Are Low P/E Stocks Really a Bargain? The PEG and YPEG A PEG of 1.0 suggests that a company is fairly valued. If
the company in the above example only had a P/E of five but was expected
to grow at 10% a year, it would have a PEG of 0.5 -- implying that it is
selling for one half (50%) of its fair value. If the company had a P/E of
20 and expected growth of 10% a year, it would have a PEG of 2.0, worth
double what it should be according to the assumption that the P/E should
equal the EPS rate of growth. Multiples
You arrive at
the earnings per share by simply dividing the dollar amount of the
earnings a company reports by the number of shares it currently has
outstanding. Thus, if XYZ Corp. has one million shares outstanding and has
earned one million dollars in the past 12 months, it has a trailing EPS of
$1.00. (The reason it is called a trailing EPS is because it looks at the
last four quarters reported -- the quarters that trail behind the most
recent quarter reported. $1,000,000
-------------- = $1.00 in earnings per share (EPS)
1,000,000 shares
$15 share price
---------------------------= 15 P/E
$1.00 in trailing EPS
There is a large
population of individual investors who stop their entire analysis of a
company after they figure out the trailing P/E ratio. With no regard to
any other form of valuation, this group of unFoolish investors blindly
plunge ahead armed with this one ratio, purposefully ignoring the vagaries
of equity analysis. Popularized by Ben Graham (who used a number of other
techniques as well as low P/E to isolate value), the P/E has been
oversimplified by those who only look at this number. Such investors look
for "low P/E" stocks. These are companies that have a very low price
relative to their trailing earnings.
Also called a "multiple", the
P/E is most often used in comparison with the current rate of growth in
earnings per share. The Foolish assumption is that for a growth company,
in a fairly valued situation the price/earnings ratio is about equal to
the rate of EPS growth.
In our example of XYZ Corp., for instance,
we find out that XYZ Corp. grew its earnings per share at a 13% over the
past year, suggesting that at a P/E of 15 the company is pretty fairly
valued. Fools believe that P/E only makes sense for growth companies
relative to the earnings growth. If a company has lost money in the past
year or has suffered a decrease in earnings per share over the past twelve
months, the P/E becomes less useful than other valuation methods we will
talk about later in this series. In the end, P/E has to be viewed in the
context of growth and cannot be simply isolated without taking on some
significant potential for error.
With the advent
of computerized screening of stock databases, low P/E stocks that have
been mispriced have become more and more rare. When Ben Graham formulated
many of his principles for investing, one had to search manually through
pages of stock tables in order to ferret out companies that had extremely
low P/Es. Today, all you have to do is punch a few buttons on an online
database and you have a list as long as your arm.
This screening
has added efficiency to the market. When you see a low P/E stock these
days, more often than not it deserves to have a low P/E because of its
questionable future prospects. As intelligent investors value companies
based on future prospects and not past performance, stocks with low P/Es
often have dark clouds looming in the months ahead. This is not to say
that you cannot still find some great low P/E stocks that for some reason
the market has simple overlooked -- you still can and it happens all the
time. Rather, you need to confirm the value in these companies by applying
some other valuation techniques.
The most common Foolish
applications of the P/E are the P/E and growth ratio (PEG) and the
year-ahead P/E and growth ratio (YPEG). Rather than reinvent the
wheel, as there is a wonderful series of articles already written on these
very subjects in Fooldom, I will simply direct your attention to them and
talk about them very briefly. The PEG simply takes the annualized rate of growth out
to the furthest estimate and compares this with the current stock price.
Since it is future growth that makes a company valuable to both an
acquirer and a shareholder seeking either dividends or free cash flow to
fund stock buybacks, this makes some degree of intuitive sense. Only
looking at the trailing P/E is kind of like driving while looking out the
rearview mirror.
If a company is expected to grow at 10% a year
over the next two years and has a P/E of 10, it will have a PEG of 1.0.
P/E of 10
---------------------- = 1.0 PEG
10% EPS growth
While the PEG is most often used for
growth companies, the YPEG is best suited for valuing larger,
more-established ones. The YPEG uses the same assumptions as the PEG but
looks at different numbers. As most earnings estimate services provide
estimated 5-year growth rates, these are simply taken as an indication of
the fair multiple for a company's stock going forward. Thus, if the
current P/E is 10 but analysts expect the company to grow at 20% over the
next five years, the YPEG is equal to 0.5 and the stock looks cheap
according to this metric. As always, one must view the PEG and YPEG in the
context of other measures of value and not consider them as magic money
machines.
Although the PEG and YPEG are helpful,
they both operate on the assumption that the P/E should equal the EPS rate
of growth. Unfortunately, in the real world, this is not always the case.
Thus, many simply look at estimated earnings and estimate what fair
multiple someone might pay for the stock. For example, if XYZ Corp. has
historically traded at about 10 times earnings and is currently down to 7
times earnings because it missed estimates one quarter, it would be
reasonable to buy the stock with the expectation that it will return to
its historic 10 times multiple if the missed quarter was only a short-term
anomaly.
When you project fair multiples for a company based on
forward earnings estimates, you start to make a heck of a lot of
assumptions about what is going to happen in the future. Although one can
do enough research to make the risk of being wrong as marginal as
possible, it will always still exist. Should one of your assumptions turn
out to be incorrect, the stock will probably not go where you expect it to
go. That said, most of the other investors and companies out there are
using this same approach, making their own assumptions as well, so, in the
worst-case scenario, at least you won't be alone.
A modification
to the multiple approach is to determine the relationship between the
company's P/E and the average P/E of the S&P 500. If XYZ Corp. has
historically traded at 150% of the S&P 500 and the S&P is
currently at 10, many investors believe that XYZ Corp. should eventually
hit a fair P/E of 15, assuming that nothing changes. This historical
relationship requires some sophisticated databases and spreadsheets to
figure out and is not widely used by individual investors, although many
professional money managers often use this approach.
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