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Diane's DiaryHurricane reporting: Thought I would write about Ivan's progress gathered from my actual notes from the 3 weather sources we use on a daily basis (Eric, George and Chris) besides the weather info Larry gets from the weather fax over ham radio. The progress clearly shows why Grenada had no warning that they were going to get a direct hit until Ivan was almost on top of them. We had been watching Ivan as we do everything that tracks off the coast of Africa at this time of the year, as that's where all the hurricanes form. When Ivan formed it was blow 10 degrees North in latitude - the strongest, lowest forming TS and Hurricane ever recorded! All the weathermen were saying to watch this one right from when it first developed. BTW, at the time, we were in Margarita at 10.5N and 63.5 west so we were above the hurricane at this point - not good! Anyway, the first reports were that Ivan was going to hit St. Lucia, then it was revised to Barbados. I don't think they ever changed the forecast until Ivan was right on top of Grenada. Anyway, you can see from my weather reports that we listen to the weather on a regular basis out here - especially when we are offshore! Here are my actual logs: 9/5 Sunday - Destiny in Margarita (10.5N and 63.5) - 5pm Ivan at 10.4N 47.7W moving W-NW at 285 degrees at 18 knots pressure 950. Winds at 125-145 knots for the entire next few days (this means it's a category 4 hurricane). By Tuesday when it hits our longitude, it's expected to be at 15.5N, which would put it well north of us. However, Ivan still has NOT moved North at all as expected. If it stays on it's present heading, it's headed almost straight for us! We will make a decision tomorrow as to whether we should stay or leave. 9/6 Monday - Destiny in Margarita - at 6am, Ivan at 10.8N 51.6W moving west at 275 degree (which means it's shifted a little more to the west) at 20 knots, pressure 951. It was about 550 miles ESE of Barbados but HAS NOT MOVED NORTH yet and is expected just south of Barbados by 8am tomorrow. Eric said the storm could track further south than the forecast models were showing as they all said it is supposed to go north. He said he would NOT be surprised if it hit Tobago and possibly Trini! We are only less than 100 miles from Trini in Margarita. Wow! They also said the storm appears to have split so didn't know what that means but we all think it's not good from the way they are talking! This was not good. Larry and I had already decided on listening to both Eric and George this AM that we were going to leave anyway even if Mima and Survival don't want to go and leave for Cubagua today. If the storm looks like it will get closer to us, we'll go to Laguna Grande. However, Mima and Survival decide to leave also so we all go to Coche. 9/6 Monday - Destiny in Coche. The 2pm Intermediary advisory, Ivan is at 11.4N, 54.4W-moving W-NW around 20 knots pressure 969. George said barometer dropped 6mb since 7am this morning, which is not good. Pressure has increased some, which is good, but it's till a category 3- 4 hurricane. Will hit the islands Tuesday afternoon (however we always know that some feeder bands come first so you have to be prepared for this). Seas will exceed 12 feet within 200 NM of storm. TS warning for Trini and Hurricane warning for Tobago - nothing said about Grenada taking a direct hit. 5pm- Ivan at 11.6N 55.3W moving at 285 degrees at 19 knots pressure 968. Still NOT turning north much- this is NOT good! 9/7 Tuesday - Destiny in Laguna Grande. At 7:30am report from the 5am(?) advisory, Ivan at 11.4N 58.5 West, moving WEST at 280 degrees at 16 knots pressure 980. Pressure increasing. Ivan HAS NOT MOVED NORTH yet as all the forecast models say it will. Hurricane will hit islands TODAY. The EYE will be in Grenada by pm today! Eye will pass south of Tobago also. Trini will get TS winds with gusts up to hurricane strength! 11 am position- 11.8N 60.2W, pressure 963 at moving at 16 knots (intermediary advisory) 2pm position- 11.9N 61.2W moving west at 18 knots, pressure 957. (Intermediary advisory) Ivan 55KM ESE of Grenada and is a category 3 hurricane. This means Grenada will be in NE of the storm- the very worst quadrant to be in! Aves, Roques, ABC islands have hurricane watches up - strong NW- W winds and swell should be expected there and islands should be evacuated. 5pm report 12.0N 62.0W moving West at 280 degrees at 16 knots pressure 956. Eye is 15NM wide. (Note: Blanquilla is at 11.5N 64.3W so it doesn't pass far north from here) 9/8 Wed 4:30am - we missed early reports as we were sleeping in; also we spent a restless night with the winds clocking from all directions so we didn't get a get night's sleep. Since we knew we were safe, we didn't feel the urgency to listen to the weather although we were definitely worried about all the other boaters out there. 2pm- intermediary report -13.1N 67.0W moving W-NW at 26mph pressure 949. Note: the Aves are at 11.5-12N 67W, Roques 11.5N 66W- warnings for out islands of VE and ABC 5pm- 13.4N 67.7W moving W-NW at 295 at 17 mph or 95 miles N-NE of Bonaire. Bonaire is at 12N 68W. Ivan heading for Jamaica. Thurs 7am- Ivan at 13.9N 70.0W at 290 degrees at 13 knots pressure 922 and is a strong category 5 storm now We continued listening to it but it's heading North so we are less interested in it now although they said it might hit the west coast of Fl which has already had 2 hurricanes this year- Charley and Frances. So, what did I learn from all? NEVER trust the projected track as in this case the error was great. I am sure Grenada was not prepared and neither were all the boats from a direct hit. They were in the NE quadrant, which is the worst. I think if I were in Grenada watching the ACTUAL track and not following the projections I would have left several days before the storm. But who knows? Hindsight is always great, huh? The weatherman kept saying Ivan would move North but it never did. So, don't trust hurricanes and just move anyway. Thank goodness we made the right decision to leave Margarita as we got out just in time. Also, have the boat prepared to leave. We met other boaters in Margarita that said they weren't prepared to leave, as they didn't have enough water, diesel, food, etc. Keep the boat filled with fuel or at least enough to get to a hurricane hole and at least 1 tank of water. Also, at least have dry provisions on board so if you have to leave quickly going you can. It's a lot easier to leave than to stay and get destroyed or chance going aground! I guess this is easy to say now but if nothing had hit Margarita, we would have all been complaining that we went to Laguna Grande for nothing! Also, in an ironic note, if David from Survival had not died, all 3 boats would have been in the VE islands when the storm hit. Scary! September 8 Wednesday It was overcast with some small squalls the whole day. Just as Larry and I were going to take the dinghy down in the am, Tom came to bring Larry over to Survival. Larry and Tom spent the entire day on Judy's boat trying to fix her engine problem. The problem was a broken idler pulley but they didn't have the part so had to jury rig it. They left at 10am and didn't come back until after 5, tired, dirty and exhausted but at least they got it temporarily fixed. I worked on my logs, did lots of emails to let every one know we were OK and listened to the SSB. It sounds like Grenada took a direct hit and the BBC said 90% of the island was destroyed. Two-thirds of the population or 60,000 people are homeless. Grenada had not had a hurricane in 50 years. We heard most of the boats on the hard in Spice Island Marina in Prickly Bay and St. David's were destroyed. We are very worried about our friend Mo on Motu, as we know she is there and hope she is OK. We heard that of the approximately 85 boats in Mt. Hartman (which we liked and spent over a month in once), ONLY 4 Had NO damage at all - about 50 were still "floating" with some sort of damage, 23 went ashore, 6 sunk (all were in the marina) and 5 went on the reef. WOW! Unbelievable! We are so happy we were not there. The weatherman kept saying the storm was going to track north toward St. Lucia so I'm sure a lot of boats headed down from there toward Grenada thinking they were safe. After all, Grenada had always been thought of as a good hurricane hole. Now we know it is NOT!!! Anyway, Larry and I were both tired from the last few days and were in bed asleep by 9:30pm. We would definitely recommend any boats to come to Laguna Grande during a hurricane though - I don't think there is any better hurricane hole in the entire Caribbean!!! September 9 Thursday Well, we took down the dinghy this morning and went over to Mima for a very nice breakfast. Steph made pancakes for everyone but an omelet for me, as I don't eat pancakes. My computer is definitely broken and Larry can't fix it so we'll have to share his until we get it fixed when we get back to PLC. We took a dinghy ride around the bay but didn't go to shore since we had so much mud from all that rain. We only had about 20 boats in here for the entire storm but could have fit hundreds more. Why more people didn't come here I'll never know. They all thought the hurricane wouldn't get them! We both read and generally took it easy as I think we were both tired from the last few days. Mima came over for dinner and I made a new pasta dish with avocado, red pepper, onions, mushrooms, etc that came out pretty good. We're going to leave on Saturday when the winds and seas subside some. We know that after a hurricane passes it sometimes takes a few days or so for the seas to decrease and for the winds to go back to normal. September 10 Friday We just spent another quiet relaxing day on Destiny. The winds have picked up just a bit but not too much. I would love to take a walk but since we had all that rain the ground is covered in lots of mud - no good shelling either. We were up at 6am as we have all been monitoring 88A at night in case any one of us has trouble and at 6am some locals started jabbering away on it and woke us up! I was not very happy as I was in a very deep sleep. I have been sleeping well again - guess it was just the noisy Margarita anchorage. It's very peaceful and quiet here. We are the only 3 boats left in this anchorage so it's very nice. Anyway, we heard about Motu - the boat was sunk and has been destroyed but Mo and her dog Honey are OK. Lots of damage to boats in Grenada and we heard lots of looting around too. We have heard reports that 90% of the island has been destroyed and 60,000 of the 90,000 people are homeless. A curfew has been put in place and the Caribbean police have been sent there. We got lots of emails from people we knew who wanted to see if we were OK so I did lots of emails this morning and than spent the rest of the day doing my logs. I finally caught up! Hope we will be able to get my computer fixed when we get back to PLC as it has 2 months logs plus the entire years financials on it! We'll leave tomorrow for Tortuga - about 80 miles from here. |