| Datum | Länk | Egen kommentar |
| 1999-06-30 | "10% av alla datorer kommer att krascha" | Det här är från CNNfn. Den brittiska konsultfirman International Monitoring förutspår att trots allt arbete som hittills lagts ner och som kommer att läggas ner på 2000-arbete kommer ändå 10 procent (vilket de anser vara en försiktig siffra!) av alla datorer krascha vid årsskiftet. 10 procent... Och så har vi inbäddade system också... |
| 1999-06-30 | Finns det svenska myndigheter som är så här sent ute? | Det här är en krönika om y2k-arbetet i en amerikansk myndighet. Jag hoppas verkligen att de svenska myndigheterna och kommunerna hunnit längre än den amerikanska myndigheten i krönikan. |
| 1999-06-30 | Omfattande skadeståndsmål att vänta i 2000-problemens spår |
Even if a company fixes its own internal computer systems to handle Y2K, it still has the legal duty to investigate how key business partners such as parts suppliers are preparing. Extensive testing and outside audits can help bolster a company's defense in case of lawsuits, he said.
One common problem is an "unbelievable level" of misunderstanding of the basic Y2K problem by government officials and company executives in those countries, Moore said. A government minister in Mexico recently proclaimed the Y2K problem nearly solved, yet a survey showed only 5 percent of the population knew what the problem was about. "I have information technology managers in France who are desperately trying to prepare their systems despite the lack of support from their executives," she said. |
| 1999-06-30 | Sanningens ögonblick |
Nu börjar det bli kritiskt för en hel del företag och myndigheter beträffande trovärdigheten. Många hade 1 januari, 1999, som deadline för att därigenom erhålla ett helt år för tester. Ingen klarade av denna deadline. Många hade 31 mars som deadline. Inte heller denna höll de. Andra har likt New York State 1 juli, 1999, som deadline för sina "utilities", dvs vatten- och elförsörjning. Ska vi gissa att det skjuts framåt till 30 september? Och sedan? Jo, 31 december! Och sedan...?
You are performing an important public service by reviewing the actions being taken by the utilities to address the problem, which should serve to dispel some of the alarmist sentiment that has recently been expressed in the press. I am pleased to report, with a degree of cautious optimism, that all of our major public utilities are scheduled to be Y2K ready by July 1, 1999 -- a full six months in advance of the year 2000. "Y2K ready" means that critical systems will continue to operate without service disruptions regardless of the date. Det ska bli intressant att se hur media behandlar detta. För de kommer inte att klara denna deadline. |
| 1999-06-30 | Inlägg från anonym anställd vid kraftbolag |
Det här är ett anonymt inlägg på ett diskussionsforum. Innehållet kanske inte bör förkastas helt...
My conscience is bothering me and I've got to say something. I read Mitch Ratcliffe's challenge on ZDNet. He apparently thinks that everything's going fine with all the Y2K remediation work because no one who is involved in it will speak out publicly. Sorry, but the $1000 doesn't cut it. I have been warned by management that if I go public or say anything negative it's my CAREER. They'll destroy me. I've been in the business for 30 years and I'm too old to change careers. I can't identify myself, but I can speak out. I work for an electrical utility. (I won't say where because you'd figure out who it is.) If our company is indication, the lights ARE going out next January at the crack of midnight. We don't have time to test every piece of equipment. What we're doing is TYPE CHECKING, which is just a fancy of way of saying SPOT CHECKING. Just the other day I looked at a Phillips VRZ262-Q7 unit that monitors the current in four 05388 sub assemblies. I wanted to check everything but my supervisor said, "NO just check one assembly." We ASSUME that the other three will be OK. We're doing the same thing with our Siemens System 3 SCADA; we're only looking at some of the RTUs. They've declared the DPS system to be "non-mission-critical" so we're not even checking it! I'm worried because we've been laying off people right and left to cut costs for the past 5 years. Some of these people have gone to work for private contractors, but a lot of them have gone into other types of work. The company is being run by kids in business suits, and these geniuses think that they'll be able to hire the private contractors to help out in a pinch. BUT THEY'RE GOING TO BE OVERLOADED, TOO. The April 9 drill was a PR stunt. Lane Core was right. I don't know what everyone else did but I can TELL you what we did. We talked to each other on walkie-talkies and had a great picnic. One day last winter we advanced the dates on the EMS and the power went off. Cascade failures knocked out a bunch of other stuff. Because of that the geniuses decided that we can't test the entire system, so we just work on "spot remediation." We make sure all the dates LOOK right so that we can claim good numbers in our reports. The first time the whole system will be tested together is January 1 2000! (Don't you remember reading about that big outage last Winter? That's what happened! I was there!) Prepare people. Don't let the Happy Faces fool you. You should be ready for a week at least with no power on New Year's with random outages of 4-6 hours for at least another YEAR. Or WORSE. -- Worried Utility Worker (worried@eusa.com), June 28, 1999 |
| 1999-06-29 |
Undersökning: 8% av de största företagen "y2k-klara" - alltså "ready", inte "compliant" 50% ligger efter tidplanen |
With just six months to go until Y2K, this is not a time to be blasé.
A poll of top Y2K professionals just conducted by CIO magazine, in conjunction with Information Systems Audit and Control Association and Dr. Ed Yardeni’s Y2K Center, showed that only 8 percent of the organizations surveyed (most with at least 1,000 employees) had completed their Y2K work and almost half were behind schedule. "We’re not doing as well as [White House Y2K czar John] Koskinen would like us to believe," says Soquel-based Y2K consultant William Ulrich. Noting that a Cap Gemini study showed that half of the Fortune 500 companies surveyed had fixed only half of their code by January, Ulrich says, "The emphasis now is on contingency planning and crisis management." Meanwhile, "Cisco president John Chambers plans to be working with his team of programmers on New Years’ Eve. He deserves a pat on the back. Cisco routers are the backbone of the Internet. If they’re not up, Netscape and a lot of other companies will have a lot of problems," Ulrich says. Some other leading Silicon Valley corporations aren’t dismissing Y2K either. "The biggest risk we face is in Japan," Donald Rose, Intel’s general manager of year-2000 projects, told EE Times. Rose sees a possible "serious disruption in the making of chips around the world" if undetected glitches shut down materials pipelines in Japan and other Asian countries. |
| 1999-06-29 | Karl Feilder varnar för Office 2000 | Mikrodatorexperten Karl Feilder varnar för att Office 2000 kan skapa nya problem vi millenniumskiftet. |
| 1999-06-29 | "Datafolk" skaffar alternativa energikällor |
Kent Morgan of Indianapolis, who sells solar and other energy-saving products on the Internet, said he's surprised by who's buying backup power.
"They're business people and doctors. There are very few 'survivalists' at all. And many of them are computer types, which worries me. I keep wondering what they know that I don't know," Morgan said. Michael Novotny is one of those "computer types." He is building a wind-powered system for his home in Tracy, Calif., and he plans to add solar power, too. Novotny, a former electrician, he says he is wary of the millennium bug. "The grid may not be there. Even if a portion goes down, there may be a chain reaction that occurs," Novotny said. He added, "Am I a doomsayer? No. But there will be a bit of a disruption." |
| 1999-06-28 | Dataguru oroad |
ASCII-kodens fader och uppfinnaren av COBOL, Bob Bemer, har varnat för Y2K i åratal. Och han är orolig.
"I'm a firm believer that, if ignored or avoided, (the Y2K problem) will turn the world upside down," Bemer said. |
| 1999-06-28 |
Oförklarlig rubrik 28% av företag kommer inte att hinna klart med sina affärskritiska system i tid till 1 januari, 2000. |
Rubriken på den här rapporten lyder "Growing optimism". Ökad optimism. Hur man ens kan komma på tanken att formulera rubriken på det sättet är för mig ofattbart. Undersökningen konstaterar att 28% av företagen själva rapporterar att de inte kommer att bli färdiga med alla sina affärskritiska system till 1 januari år 2000. Att då ens andas ordet optimism (och i rubriken till på köpet) övergår mitt förstånd.
Jag kanske ska lägga till att företagen bara talar om sin mjukvara/mjukvarukod... Inbäddade system ingick inte i denna undersökning... ...The inventory phase can be considered completed and the execution phase (repairs) is moving along rapidly. Where six months ago only 44% indicated having completed this phase, by March 1999 this percentage had risen to 65%. Even if this pace continues, however, it is assumed that the efforts to complete all millennium projects in time will not be successful. This assumption is supported by the fact that 28% of those interviewed in this survey indicated that they will not succeed in having all their vital systems and objects, or their critical business processes completely millennium compliant in time. Furthermore, larger organisations in particular make use of so-called "work-arounds" in more than 50% of all situations in order to reach the status of millennium compliance. This amounts to a solution in which a system, object or process functions, but for which in many cases a comparable level of performance (speed, cost) cannot be guaranteed. |
| 1999-06-28 | Finansiellt kaos lurar runt hörnet, säger Sunday Times |
30% av de 1000 största företagen i Storbritannien riskerar att missa deadlinen 1 januari 2000. De kommer inte att hinna klart. Deras produktion (av varor och tjänster) kommer att avstanna på obestämd framtid. (En dag, en vecka, en månad, flera månader? Ingen vet.) Många av dem är listade på börsen, FTSE. Det finns med andra ord all anledning att ta y2k-hotet på största allvar, om man får tro Sunday Times.
BRITAIN is facing economic meltdown next year because hundreds of our largest companies are playing "Russian roulette" with the millennium bug, an independent watchdog will warn the City of London today. Up to 300 of Britain's top 1,000 firms are risking tens of thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of profits because crucial technology is unlikely to be bug-compliant by the end of the year, according to a comprehensive survey by Taskforce 2000 and Dibb Lupton Alsop, the firm of solicitors. If the worst-case scenario predicted in the report happens, London's financial markets could be thrown into chaos as thousands of computers crash because they cannot cope with the date change. The alarming prognosis comes only three days after the Financial Services Authority gave warning that a "high-impact" firm - probably a big bank or pension company - was "at serious risk" of failing the compliance challenge. Today's survey, which polled a representative sample of Britain's thousand largest firms, found that 30 per cent "would not reach millennium compliance in time". Several of those companies deemed most at risk of disruption were FTSE-listed. Robin Guenier, executive director of Taskforce 2000, said the findings "point to an extraordinary position where about 300 of the UK's largest businesses appear to be playing Russian roulette with the millennium bug''. |
| 1999-06-28 | EU tycker att det är dags att öka medvetenheten om Y2K... |
Det är så dags nu. Sex månader kvar till årsskiftet och först nu tycker EU att det är dags att börja öka medvetenheten?! Innan den enorma byråkratin i Bryssel får ändan ur vagnen är det alldeles för sent.
The report by UK Tyne and Wear EuroMP Alan Donnelly, says the EU must create and support awareness campaigns. He also wants to encourage information exchange among organisations responsible for crucial infrastructure sectors, such as telecomms and transport. He said: "My main area of concern is to provide adequate Y2K protection for some 18 million small and medium enterprises (SMEs). I'm very concerned about preparation in public utilities like gas and electricity sectors." "We need to identify a Y2K procedure in the EU, and decide on collective action. Some member states are progressing too slowly and there is a lack of cross border cooperation in some sectors," he said. |
| 1999-06-28 | "The Y2K disconnect" |
Y2knewswire kan ha en aning konstiga vinklingar på sina reportage ibland. Men de säger också en hel del vettigt emellanåt. Idag tar de upp "The Y2K disconnect" - det konstiga faktum att så många människor ignorerar problemet trots tonvis med indikationer på att det finns all anledning att inte vara alltför optimistisk (om jag uttrycker mig försiktigt...).
This week, Y2KNEWSWIRE covers the "Y2K Disconnect" -- a mysterious psychology that allows people of all walks of life to selectively ignore a mountain of evidence that Y2K is not only unsolved at this moment -- it is unsolvable in the time remaining. In part one of this report, we present this 36-item list, titled, "If Y2K were solved…" IF Y2K WERE SOLVED…
This list is just the beginning, of course. There are so many things that would be different if Y2K were solved, it's impossible to list them all. The only way to observe all these things and still conclude Y2K is solved is to mentally invoke the Y2K Disconnect. |
| 1999-06-26 | Ny lag i Ryssland... |
Duman har talat. Rysslands företag och myndigheter måste vara klara med sina y2k-arbeten före 1 januari, enligt en ny lag. Annars...? Först ska en grupp tillsättas för att utreda hur arbetet fortgår och en rapport skrivas.
Artikeln i Russia Today säger vidare att den ryska militären har bara 4 miljoner USD att spendera på att uppgradera hela det ryska kärnvapenkommandot och kärnvapenarsenalen. Den amerikanska delstaten Texas har hittills spenderat 280 miljoner USD... Sex månader kvar... |
| 1999-06-26 | Brittisk finansfirma mycket illa förberedd inför årsskiftet |
BBC rapporterar om att "en ledande brittisk finansiell institution" ligger mycket illa till inför årsskiftet.
"There is one financial firm that's certainly at risk of not achieving full year 2000 preparations," said an FSA spokesman on Saturday. "The company cannot be named for legal and policy reasons." But it is understood the firm is well known. The company has been classified as being in the 'serious risk' red category... |
| 1999-06-25 | FN-organ: Allvarliga störningar att vänta för många länder i två-tre månader |
GENEVA (Reuters) - A "significant number" of developing countries face severe trade disruption and a collapse of customs operations at year's end because they are not ready to cope with the year 2000 problem, a U.N. agency has warned. Jean Gurunlian, a senior official of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), said trade could be interrupted for these countries for weeks or "maybe months." Of the 75 countries using ASYCUDA, UNCTAD's Automated System for Customs Data and Management set up in the 1980s, some 35 to 40 are considered as having a high-risk of being affected by the Y2K problem, due to non-compliant software, according to UNCTAD officials. Another 20 countries are deemed to have other, more minor problems. UNCTAD had been trying to help countries to comply for two years, Gurunlian said. "I will be very frank. Early versions of ASYCUDA are not 'millennium compliant.' This means that countries using them will be unable to operate their systems beyond 31 December, 1999," Gurunlian told the Brussels meeting. "Even in some countries which are using millennium compliant versions of ASYCUDA, problems with non-compliant proprietary software and hardware can also result in a collapse of customs operations at the end of the year. "The consequences of inaction in this regard cannot be exaggerated. There is a very serious risk that international trade in a significant number of developing countries will be severely disrupted for an unpredictable number of weeks, maybe months," he added. |
| 1999-06-25 | Y2K-konferens resulterar i oklarhet |
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Keep the public alerted to Y2K — but avoid panic. Hustle to update
computers — but expect to miss the Dec. 31 deadline. The world is ready — but not quite.
That was the mixed message Tuesday at the second conference on international preparedness for the year
2000 computer bug, better known as Y2K. The first meeting was held last December.
"The Y2K problem is too global, too complex and too systemic to be totally solved on time," said Carlos Braga, head of the World Bank's Y2K program. Och så följande kommentar som man kan tycka är tragisk, men ändå representativ för 99.9% av befolkningen: Not to worry. Pakistan's U.N. Ambassador Ahmad Kamal said: "Disruptions are not likely to be major disruptions because by and large problems have been identified." "Titta, ett osäkrat system! Vilken tur att vi identifierade det. Nu ordnar sig allt. Jasså, måste systemen åtgärdas också?! Jamen, den där pakistanske FN-ambassadören sa ju att det räckte med att identifiera systemen? Gör det inte det? Å tusan, är identifieringen bara ca 2% av hela 2000-projektet? Hmmm... Kanske är bäst att börja fundera på hur vi ska fixa det här nu då. Ajdå, är det bara 6 månader kvar till årsskiftet?! Jaha, vi får väl hoppas på det bästa då." |
| 1999-06-25 | "Genomsnittlig flygförsening 7 dagar", enligt konsultfirma |
Average global air passenger delay to be 7 days due
to Y2K
Planes will not fall out of the sky, but logistics issues on the ground are likely to cause delays. June 24, 1999 -- The 30 busiest passenger airports are located in countries that are behind in Y2K preparations and fixes, which could delay average air passenger travel by 7 days according to a London specialist consultancy. |
| 1999-06-25 | Det tar längre tid än väntat för storföretagen |
En kanadensisk undersökning visar att det tar betydligt längre tid än väntat för de större företagen att nå 2000-säkring. (Och vad är nyheten???)
Mr. Johnston said he's worried that Corporate Canada may be getting overly confident about Y2K. "The danger is that if they stop working so hard now, maybe down the road they'll find they missed some things." |
| 1999-06-25 | Araber vägrar diskutera y2k med Israel |
Inte ens en gemensam digital fiende kan skapa samarbete i Mellanöstern. Det här är från Yahoo:
UNITED NATIONS (AP) - Israel's U.N. ambassador says Mideast politics have crept into the second global conference on the Year 2000 computer bug. Regional groups were scheduled to meet Monday in advance of the conference to discuss problems and solutions, but the meeting for Middle East and North African countries never took place because Arab countries wouldn't sit down with Israeli delegates. Instead, Israeli Ambassador Dore Gold told the conference Tuesday that Arab countries held their own meeting. "The Y2K problem should break down boundaries and barriers, and not create them," he said. "Israel is prepared to share its expertise with its neighbors, rather than engage in political exchanges that do nothing to advance the interests of our region." Pakistan's U.N. Ambassador Ahmad Kamal, who chairs the U.N. working group dealing with Y2K problems, said the regional groups were defined as countries with "shared problems." In this case, he said, Morocco, which chaired the Middle East and North African region, decided it "did not have shared problems with Israel." Israeli diplomat Ronnie Adam, who sat for four hours waiting for the meeting to begin, said Syria's U.N. ambassador spoke to the representative from Cyprus, who left, and no Arab delegates entered. "We were very frustrated. We were very discouraged," she said, adding that the World Bank had placed Israel in the regional grouping of the Middle East and North Africa. "Y2K is a problem with no borders," she added. |
| 1999-06-25 | Finansfirmor vägrar lämna in y2k-rapporter till myndighet | Finansbranschen skall enligt alla rapporter vara bäst förberedd och industrin som helhet väntas klara SINA problem (att sedan påverkan från andra industrier som t ex el och tele också kan komma att påverka finanssektorns system är en helt annan fråga). Om nu branschen ligger så bra till, borde väl alla firmor gladeligen lämna in sina rapporter i tid till Securities & Exchange Commission, SEC? |
| 1999-06-25 | Programmerare köper 10% av all nödproviant |
Greg Caton, President of Lumen Foods: "10% of our customers are now
Y2K remediators. Some of them are administration support, not
actually on the keyboards.
What kind of organizations are these people from? Caton: "They're from [a major telecommunications firm.] They told me don't believe what we're all being told. Two customers were from a utility company, they said specifically their utility company was not going to make it. They were not even confident they could distribute power, they had developed a bug-out plan. Another guy was from [a major railroad company]." Caton also correctly pointed out the most important item to realize from all this. "If Y2K was solved," he said, "remediators should be underrepresented in the buyers." In fact, they're not. 10% of the population in this country are not Y2K programmers, but 10% of the customers now buying food are. Ask yourself these questions: * If Y2K was solved, why would programmers suddenly be buying more food? * If Y2K was solved, wouldn't the programmers know it? * If Y2K was solved, shouldn't programmers be under-represented in the customer base of food companies rather than over-represented? * If Y2K was solved, shouldn't programmers' purchases be slowing down rather than speeding up? * If Y2K was solved, wouldn't companies and federal agencies be parading programmers in front of the press, urging them to verify the compliance claims? |
| 1999-06-23 | Radiointervju som skrämmer |
Länken går till en audiofil (Real Player) med en nära 3 timmar lång radiointervju. Jeff Rense på broadcast.com intervjuar bl a Mike Adams från y2knewswire.com och en rad andra personer som berättar skrämmande fakta om vad som faktiskt försiggår ute på företagen och myndigheterna. Jag hann inte lyssna igenom hela sändningen igår kväll, men här är några saker som togs upp under den första timmen:
* Skepticism mot rapporteringen. Alla rapporter om 2000-säkring är självrapporterade av företagen och myndigheterna. Det är bara i undantagsfall som en tredje, oberoende part har kunnat verifiera uppgifterna. Ett tydligt exempel är Federal Aviation Administration, FAA, som i december hävdade att man säkrat 99% av systemen. Detta var en direkt lögn. Fyra månader senare var man långt ifrån klara och man är fortfarande inte klara och vet inte när (eller om) de blir klara före 1 januari. Centralt: "Who's watching the watchers?" * Vad är ett "affärskritiskt system" (mission critical)? Frågan är aktuell sedan de amerikanska myndigheterna för några månader sedan helt plötsligt reviderade ner antalet affärskritiska system. Eftersom myndigheterna tidigare fått skarp kritik för att det går så långsamt, minskade man helt enkelt ner antalet system! 10 säkrade system av 50 är 20 procent. 10 säkrade system av 100 är 10 procent. 20 procent låter ju bättre än 10 procent... * Intervjuer med personer som säljer överlevnadsutrustning, framförallt mat, konstaterar att programmerare och andra som jobbar med 2000-projekt är klart överrepresenterade bland de som beställer dessa artiklar. Dessa personer utgör ungefär 10 procent. Men inte är det 10 procent av befolkningen som arbetar med 2000-projekt! Högst 1 procent. Vad sänder detta för signaler? Jo, att de som jobbar med problemen är mer oroliga än folk i allmänhet och de är dessutom så oroliga att de förbereder sig själva och sina familjer för allvarliga samhällsstörningar. * Det finns uppgifter om att folk med (verklig) insyn i företagens 2000-projekt (t ex programmerare) slutat sina jobb trots att de bara haft några år kvar tills pensionen. * Ett antal (19) y2k-arbetare/programmerare vid ett stort, icke namngivet företag i Seattle har en cynisk vadslagning: Hur många dödsfall kommer USA att drabbas av på grund av år 2000-problemen? Den mest optimistiska tror på 18 miljoner... * Washington Post rapporterade (nyheten finns under "Senaste Nytt" någon månad tillbaka) att staden "Washington D.C. inte kan garantera sina invånares säkerhet med anledning av 2000-problemen". Det här ledde till att de företag som levererar nödutrustning fick ett flertal samtal från Senatorer med insyn i den rapport som låg bakom uttalandet. Både mat och annan utrustning skulle levereras till deras respektive familjer i deras hemstater. * Etc... Hur mycket av ovanstående är sanning och hur mycket är myt? Den stora frågan är dock: Kan man utesluta att dessa uppgifter är helt felaktiga? Nej! Alltså: Vad ska DU göra år DIN situation med denna insikt? |
| 1999-06-22 | Det krävdes en allvarlig incident för att Los Angeles skulle hosta upp pengar till ny datorteknik | På eftermiddagen efter det att det stora läckaget av avloppsvatten tog Los Angeles beslut om att köpa in ny datorteknik. Men det krävdes en allvarlig incident för att stadens beslutsfattare skulle vakna. Och nu skjuter man upp nya tester på obestämd framtid. Man vill ju inte ha ännu fler tester som går fel!!! Min gissning är att detta mönster är genomgående för de flesta organisationer. Och det visar också varför tester är så viktiga. Och ändå är det så många som kommer att skippa testfasen av tidsbristskäl. |
| 1999-06-22 | Världsbanken: Situationen är allvarlig | Världsbanken konstaterar att situationen runt om i världen inte är så ljus som man skulle önska. Världsbanken har anledning att känna oro då man bl a har lånat ut miljardtals med dollar till länder i tredje världen. Om dessa länder havererar på grund av år 2000-problemen lär Världsbanken få ännu svårare att återfå sina pengar. |
| 1999-06-21 | Nåt är fel i Morgan Stanleys resonemang |
Y2K kommer INTE att innebära problem, säger Lorraine Wang, analytiker på investmentbanken Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Anledning: De amerikanska bolagen i USA har problemet under kontroll. 1) Undrar om hon har läst de senaste undersökningarna från Cap Gemini, Weiss Ratings eller Gartner Group. 2) Ok. Antag att de amerikanska bolagen klarar sig i USA... Vad händer med de multinationella bolagen? De har produktion och underleverantörer runt hela världen. Man måste vara bra naiv och oinformerad för att tro att Y2K-problemen är lokala. 3) Lorraine Wang säger vidare: "Utländska regeringar har inte lämnat ut tillräckligt med information för att vi ska kunna uttala oss om de globala implikationerna". Hold your horses!!! Ok. Vi vet inte hur "de andra klarar sig", men "vi" kommer att klara oss ändå. Det är det där som kallas strutsmentalitet. "Om vi blundar kan vi inte se problemen, ergo, det är inget problem!" Hon kanske borde fråga sig VARFÖR utländska regeringar inte har lämnat ut någon information. Kanske för att det inte finns något positivt att berätta??? (Nej, så illa kan det ju bara inte vara!!! Eller?) 4) Författaren till artikeln kan inte ha förstått vad det handlar om när han kallar y2k-problemen för "ett virus". Och det är mindre än ett halvår till 1 januari 2000... |
| 1999-06-21 | Problem för oljebranschen... |
Börjar bli tjatigt att säga detta nu, men... oljebranschen kommer att få stora problem med anledning av årsskiftesproblematiken. Stopp i oljeproduktion och oljetransporter kommer att få oljepriset att skjuta i höjden och därmed sätta världsekonomin under rejäl press.
The bottom line: Most oilwell embedded systems were never, and are never going to be checked or tested for Y2K compliance. Its a virtual impossibility PLUS... And even if they did, most likely the parts to replace them will no longer be available. It's now become very difficult to find anyone who can supply a replacement system before 1/1/2000. Some easier testing was done on more accessible systems, which are usually newer. Understandably, fail rates have soared 25% in some areas. Overall, these sources estimate that based on prior limited testing, they are expecting a 10 to 20% ratio of failure, or multiple embedded systems going down on each oil well. There will be no parts to fix them and no replacement systems available for quite a long while. These sources tell me that the major oil companies have adopted a FOF policy (fix on fail), because it is the only affordable and practical approach. Plus, there's no time to get it all fixed anyway. You should also keep in mind (according to my sources) that even if the fail rate is only a 0.1 (or one-tenth) of 1% fail rate on embedded chips within a system, there's a lot of embedded systems on each well. The quantity of systems on board is still large enough to shut-down virtually every large well in the USA, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States plus most offshore platforms. Remember that I am speaking of only large wells that are indeed computerized. Although most if not all large wells do have these embedded chips systems, there still may be a handful of large wells that have eluded modernization. The embedded systems really have paid for themselves on large wells. The oil companies realized that and converted those wells. I didn't even mention the nightmares that confound such a situation IF the electricity is out, and/or the phones don't work. That only compounds the problem. Remember too, that for much of the oil industry this will occur in the dead of winter in regions where freezing temperatures will play havoc. Also, if a well goes down for protracted period due to Y2k ramifications... chances are new wells will have to be drilled to replace lost oil production - especially if it is an old well that was using water injection techniques. Wells such as these are extremely vulnerable to shut-downs. BOTTOM LINE on Oil Wells: Expect a near complete stoppage in crude oil pumping on January 1, 2000. ...Bottom line on Refining: Don't count on much gasoline or other petroleum products for the first quarter of 2000 - and perhaps continuing though out much or all of 2000. |
| 1999-06-21 |
Om Du tror att problemen med inbäddade system bara är en myt:
LÄS DET HÄR!!! |
Länken går till hemsidan för The Institution of Electrical Engineers, IEE, där de listar en hel del problem som upptäckts i inbäddade system inom energibranschen.
Konsekvenserna av problemen är i nästan samtliga fall (och fallen är många): Systemet stannar. Konsekvenserna för företaget/organisationen av att systemen stannar är i flera fall: "Katastrofala". Ta särskild notis om hur problemen sedan ska lösas när de väl är upptäckta! I många fall har man inga lösningar, utan det enda de kan göra är att byta ut systemen helt och sedan testa på nytt. Vilket tar tid (att skräddarsy/specialtillverka ett nytt system tar tid) och kostar mycket pengar. Jag gillar särskilt följande formulering (som återkommer på flera ställen):
Solution not yet known as manufacturer not now in business... |
| 1999-06-21 | G8 tycker att allmänheten borde informeras om Y2K | "Awareness". Allmänheten bör veta vad Y2K innebär. Vad ska "allmänheten" göra för att förbereda sig inför årsskiftet? Det svarar de inte på (ännu). Men man bör "känna till" problemet... Och "många länder har ännu inte gjort tillräckligt". Nån som har hört detta förut? Typ för ett år sedan? Fortfarande samma visa. They can talk the talk, but can they walk the walk? Nope. |
| 1999-06-21 | "Y2K-problemet går inte att lösa - planera därför för en veckas kaos" | Ok. Logik. Artikeln citerar personer som säger att y2k-problemet inte kan lösas i tid. 30 år av att bygga in fel i varje system kan inte lösas på tre år. Det är för sent. Så vad ska man då göra personligen? Jo, planera för EN veckas störningar! 30 års systematiskt inbyggande av fel i systemen skall åtgärdas på en vecka. Varför har många organisationer (läs: organisationer i USA och några i Västeuropa) lagt ner miljardtals dollar på problemet under de senaste tre åren när det uppenbarligen går att lösa problemen på en vecka? Vilket slöseri! En del journalister har tydligen svårt att dra slutsatser av saker de själva skriver. |
| 1999-06-19 | Fler med recessionstankar |
Den här krönikören var för några månader sedan övertygad om att y2k visserligen skulle orsaka en recession, men att den skulle vara kortvarig. Så tycker han inte längre. Nu börjar han luta åt att det blir en utdragen, djupare global recession. Han motiverar det bl a med hänvisning till Cap Geminis (som f.ö. utsågs till Europas bästa företag igår - grattis!) undersökning från maj 1999 som jag tidigare kommenterat.
When my book “How to Profit from the Y2K Recession” was released in February, I felt that we were going to have a steep but short recession. Based on the evidence I had at the time, I expected that we’d experience a 5% loss in our gross domestic product, a stock market decline of between 40-50%, and an unemployment rate of 9-10%. The good news was that I expected the worst effects to be over after about six months, and a turn-around in the third quarter of 2000. Now, the information in front of me, plus the incredible climate of Y2K denial, have led me to conclude that we are looking at the very real possibility of a much more severe recession. We may be staring into the face of a 12-24 month recession and a much longer time period for the stock market to recover. This means the stock market decline could be larger than the average 45% for a recession, and easily take 4-5 years to recover to new highs. ... What Some Economists Just Don’t Understand We have spent trillions of dollars worldwide installing technology at every level of enterprise to be more efficient. Now how in the wide, wide world of sports can the loss of 25% of your technological ability not hurt productivity and profits? If this technology we have installed doesn’t make a big difference in our profit and productivity, then why have we spent so much on it? I go nuts every time I read a report by some economist who predicts Y2K will be a non-event based on his models. His models don’t have a variable for Y2K in them. He is looking at the wrong data. The data he should be looking at is software development research and productivity analysis. But this data doesn’t translate into easily forecastable numbers, so he ignores them as irrelevant. I defy anyone to tell me how they can assess the effect of Y2K on this market as we approach the Millennium simply using past historical economic data and current spending trends. The Y2K crisis is not in that data. “Garbage in,” garbage out, as the computer programmers say, and that is why economists are ignoring Y2K. Using the wrong data to make predictions is a fool’s errand, and will produce the results usually associated with fool’s errands. Y2K is a monster variable of uncertainty. The stock market hates uncertainty. I think in the late third quarter and maybe sooner the awareness will dawn. More SEC reports will be in. Companies will be losing business because of their non-compliance. Vacations everywhere are going to get cancelled for senior and IT management. And the Y2K complacency among the public we see now is going to evaporate. And it is going to be worse because as the truth comes out and the public realizes they have been hustled they are going to react in a dramatic fashion. Studies show that most people wait until the last minute to prepare for problems anyway, and Y2K is going to be the mother of all last-minute preparation frenzies. |
| 1999-06-19 | Cory Hamasaki - "det är för sent" |
Cory Hamasaki är programmerare med ett nyhetsbrev om Y2K-problemen. Hur ska "y2k-förnekarna" hantera följande:
"Here's the problem. The prosperity of the last 20 years was driven by automation, software, laser communications, technology. Everyone likes to think that their own specialty is responsible for the success. While all helped, it was software and micro electronics that drove the prosperity. In 200 days, a killing event will strike at the technology. The event will undo some percentage of the efficiency that gives us prosperity. It can't be stopped, you cannot negotiate with it. It will happen and we will all experience the consequences." |
| 1999-06-19 | Y2K-ansvarig slutar - stadens status osäker |
Den Y2K-ansvarige för staden Toledo slutar. Han vill "spendera mer tid med familjen". Folk runt omkring honom tycks vara oroade över att man fortfarande håller på att identifiera system som kan komma att påverkas. Detta borde ha varit klart för ett år sedan, eftersom reparation, tester, mer reparation och mer tester tar längre tid än vad folk tror. Jag skulle också vara oroad om jag bodde i Toledo, USA.
Regarding the city progress with the Y2K problem, she said: "I am not comfortable with where the city is. "My concern... with the city stems from the fact we are still developing what priorities will be established and the remedial action to be taken..." |
| 1999-06-19 | Att jämföra Y2K med storm är fel |
I USA och Kanada jämför ofta de positivt lagda människorna effekterna av Y2K på samhället med en 3 dagars "isstorm". En programmerare förkastar detta synsätt helt och hållet. Att jämföra med en isstorm innebär att vi på förhand har möjlighet att uppskatta effekterna. Men det har vi inte, säger han.
Y2K is being compared to natural disasters such as ice storms and hurricanes for purposes of developing family and community preparedness. While this is a useful metaphor to use for planning the types of preparedness that should be considered, it is not a good predictor of the length or degree of the disruptions that can occur. This is particularly true where a full cycle of assessment, remediation and testing has not been used before Jan. 1, 2000. Because emergency services teams such as FEMA, the Red Cross, public utility power line repair teams, etc., are able to react quickly to natural emergencies and rapidly reestablish normal operations, linking Y2K problems with natural phenomena seems to justify: "We’ll just wait until something happens, then we’ll know exactly what and where the problem is, and our technicians will repair it quickly.” . . . . More likely, the company or government unit is unaware of or in denial about the potential magnitude of the Y2K problem or perhaps they do not believe it will significantly affect them. To the extent that they may have looked at this risk, they may be conditioned by the assumption that fixing the problem is likely to be easy and quick. However, if they do encounter Y2K problems, they will then be in an unplanned Y2K "find/fix/recover” situation. . . . Even ice storms and other natural disasters can disrupt communities for more than three days. It is easy to forget the Southeast Virginia ice storm disruption of seven days during Christmas, 1998, or the one in the Montreal area that lasted for more than five weeks the previous winter, not to mention the economic fallout caused by the storms. In both of these cases, repair crews from outside of the area provided added assistance, but if Y2K disruptions are simultaneous or widespread, help from neighboring communities may be unavailable. Finally, while repair crews for natural disasters are trained to make those specific repairs, the Y2K repair skills are completely different, and very scarce. There are, in fact, fundamental differences between natural disasters and potential Y2K disruptions. . . . Preparing for Natural Disasters Most natural disasters are predicted by weather bureaus in advance with a reasonable degree of accuracy. These predictions generally cover a geographical area, including when, where and to what degree they will strike, so that households and emergency teams can start specific preparations. Specific Y2K disruptions, on the other hand, will be very difficult to predict, since they may be randomly distributed or even of a cascading nature. Natural disasters, almost without exception, also have "natural" endings: * An ice storm ends sooner or later and the ice melts. * A hurricane or tornado sooner or later blows itself out. * Flood water levels sooner or later recede. Y2K problems have no natural ending and will continue to exist until they are found and fixed, or bypassed by knowledgeable technicians. The average citizen can also help in mitigating natural disasters. He can pick up a shovel and help remove snow. He can batten his hatches for a hurricane or evacuate if necessary. He can help build dikes to hold back an oncoming flood. However, unless he has specific programming skills, and, in addition, detailed knowledge of the failing application, there is almost nothing he can do to help repair Y2K problems. Further, since Y2K disruptions of varying types may occur simultaneously in many places, outside help from unaffected areas may not be readily available, - unlike geographically limited natural disasters, where other communities often can send assistance. In addition, natural disaster causes are very visible to everyone. Y2K disruption causes, however, are completely invisible to all but the skilled computer technician, and even then, long detective work may be necessary to pinpoint the problem and then correct it. This will especially be true where disruptions are caused by malfunctioning embedded chips. . . . Recovering from Disasters Finally, EMS, FEMA, Red Cross and many of the rest of us have substantial experience in recovering from the natural disasters, ridding ourselves of snow and ice, digging out after a hurricane and cleaning up after a flood or tornado. However, the Y2K recovery experience will be new to all of us, even those with long computer experience (40 years in the author’s case) - we have never seen the likes of this before. We do know that programming changes are often very difficult to do quickly and accurately, and that the repair or replacement of embedded chip problems may represent an even more difficult challenge. Further, predictions of a quick "find/fix/recovery” also imply that the technicians required to do this work can be contacted, and are both willing and able to get to the workplace during the disruption. For example, if there is a significant power outage in the area, closing schools and day care centers, these key employees may choose to stay home and help their families during the emergency. Or, if they are willing to come to work, they may not be able to get there because public transportation is not running, or gas pumps may not be working to supply their cars. These concerns need to be addressed in any contingency planning. As a result, the skills required and length of time needed to find the problem and create or obtain the fix are very different than with our natural disaster experience, although some contingency plans may be similar. It is very unlikely indeed that even just the basic problems can be fixed in only three days, as some sources have suggested, especially since cascading effects may have been set in motion. Therefore, the effects are likely to be felt for weeks or months. If one adds the potential supply chain problems, e.g. gasoline shortages because of overseas supply failures, the evidence is very strong for longer periods of erratic disruptions. As a result, predicting the dimensions of even a single Y2K malfunction much less multiple overlapping ones may be very difficult... |
| 1999-06-19 | Ett exempel på varför tester är så viktiga |
16 miljoner liter stinkande avloppsvatten rann ut i en park i Los Angeles i förrgår. Olyckan skedde efter ett 2000-test. Det här visar att det är mycket som kan hända...
IDG har gjort en kort sammanfattning på svenska. |
| 1999-06-19 | Brittiska regeringen: Det går inte att garantera någonting |
No guarantees can be given that the millennium bug will not cause disruption within government, the leader of the House of Commons told MPs. She admitted the United Kingdom had dropped from the top of a league table of different countries' preparations to eighth. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office is particularly at risk because of the scale of its worldwide network. |
| 1999-06-19 | Ett dokument som väcker frågor |
Det länkade pdf-dokumentet är författat av Bank for International Settlements, BIS. Dokumentet är ett av de bästa jag har sett om 2000-problemet. Vad BIS bedömer vara allvarliga frågor, ÄR allvarliga frågor. BIS tycker att 2000-problemet är mycket allvarligt. Om Du har möjlighet: skriv ut detta 34-sidiga dokument. Det reser bl a följande frågor:
Hur löser man den globala likviditetskrisen vid övergången till år 2000? Ingen lösning ges. Kommer betalningsystemen att fortsätta fungera? Går det över huvud taget att överblicka hur alla system är sammanlänkade? Nej. Vem försäkrar försäkningsbolagen? Det vill BIS veta. Jag med. Hur kommer världens aktiemarknader att fungera? Det vill BIS veta. Jag med. Ta detta dokument på allvar. Vad BIS anser vara allvarligt borde alla anse vara allvarligt. BIS är en av de mest inflytelserika institutionerna i världen. |
| 1999-06-19 | Stor osäkerhet om huruvida Kalifornien klarar övergången |
Den nyutnämnda ansvarige för Kaliforniens y2k-projekt säger nu att han inte vet hur många affärskritiska system som delstaten har. En rapport över detta skall vara klar i juli. I juli!?! Det är 195 dagar kvar nu. Och de befinner sig fortfarande i inventeringsfasen. Kalifornien låg mycket bra till, enligt egen utsago, för bara några månader sedan, men nu låter det alltså annorlunda. En rad Senatorer uttycker nu oro offentligt inför årsskiftet.
"We are 195 days away, and it sounds like it did a year ago," state Sen. John Vasconcellos (D-Santa Clara) complained to the governor's team in a public hearing Monday evening. "We are still waiting for things to happen." . . . . "The only thing I can assure is that we will have a business continuity plan in place to assure the delivery of services," said Elias Cortez, director of the Davis team in the state Department of Information Technology. "Can we guarantee there won't be glitches? I don't think anybody in the industry can." The state has spent more than $400 million to test and repair computers to handle the chronological transition. But in one sign of the confusion, officials cannot tell whether the ultimate price for repair will approach $500 million or perhaps double that amount. . . . "I'm not certain this is going to get done," Assemblyman John Dutra (D-Fremont) said after hearing the administration's report. "It's alarming. . . . I'd like significantly more assurance." . . . . Hur går det egentligen med de svenska kommunernas y2k-arbeten? |
| 1999-06-17 |
Övergången till år 2000 kan bli katastrofal för 1 miljon småföretag i USA Är situationen verkligen bättre i Sverige??? |
Robert Bennett, ordförande i Senatens Y2K-kommitté, är mycket oroad över de amerikanska småföretagens apatiska inställning till Y2K. Undersökningar visar att 20% av dem inte kommer att lyfta ett finger för att förbereda sig inför övergången till år 2000. En stor del av dem löper alltså hög risk att gå i konkurs.
WASHINGTON, DC, U.S.A. (NB) -- By David McGuire, Newsbytes. More than 1 million, or roughly 20 percent, of the nation's small business owners plan to take "no action at all" to address potential Y2K problems, according to a report. The figure alarms Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, chairman of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. "It's fairly bad news as far as we're concerned," Committee staffer Don Meyer told Newsbytes. "There are very few business entities that will have no exposure to Y2K (problems)," he said. "You are going to see widespread problems among those people who are not prepared." Those problems will not be inconsequential, according to Bennett. Unprepared business not only put themselves and their employees at risk, but may also wreak havoc on business partners and suppliers as well as the communities that depend upon them for goods and services, Bennett said in a release. The cause of Bennett's consternation is a report sponsored by Wells Fargo and the National Federation of Independent Business that shows only about 2.8 million, or 60 percent of the nation's small businesses have engaged in some form of Y2K preparation. While the report shows that number increasing, it still estimates that a sizable percentage of small businesses will be unprepared for Y2K. The bad news comes despite the recent passage of Sen. Christopher S. "Kit" Bond's, R-Mo., Small Business Year 2000 Readiness Act. The act authorizes the US Small Business Administration (SBA) to expand its loan program to help businesses that expect to be struck by glitches from the date change on or around Jan. 1, 2000. The act also allows eligible small businesses to defer on principal payments and gives them longer maturity terms and expanded options for refinancing existing SBA loans, among other things. Community effort is needed to ameliorate the problem, Meyer said. "There is only so much we can do in Washington that will reach into every community and raise awareness at every single small business." |
| 1999-06-17 | De amerikanska myndigheterna har långt kvar |
Den senaste rapporten över läget i de amerikanska myndigheterna ger inte mycket hopp. Samma story finns hos CNNfn.
Today, Subcommittee Chairman Steve Horn released the most recent evaluation of the Administration's efforts to make the federal government Y2K compliant. According to Chairman Horn, the House's expert on the Year 2000 problem, the Administration is not being completely honest in assessing its Year 2000 readiness. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has identified 43 federal "high impact" programs that provide critical services to millions of Americans nationwide, such as food stamps, Medicare, Child Welfare and the Air Traffic Control System. However, Horn's Subcommittee judges that only two (Social Security and National Weather Service) of these major high impact programs are Year 2000 complaint. Some of them will not be ready until December 1999. "Unbelievable. These are the programs that the Administration itself has determined must continue to function," said Dick Armey. "I think everyone agrees that we can't be without programs like the Air Traffic Control System when the year 2000 dawns. "It's less than 200 days until January 1 and most of the Administration's 'critical' programs are not ready," Armey continued. " The clock is ticking. I hope this Administration is listening." |
| 1999-06-17 |
Ooops! Det räcker inte att bara ställa fram klockan |
Den amerikanska kustbevakningen håller på att testa fartyg inför millenniumskiftet. Det visar sig att det inte räcker att bara ställa fram klockan för att se om fartygen verkligen klarar övergången till år 2000. Det här är från Washington Post.
. . . Many businesses and government agencies are in the home stretch in repairing and testing their computer systems. They've done everything they can to become "Y2K-compliant." But suppose that's not enough? Facing the prospect of computer crashes despite all of their preparation, they are staging elaborate simulations to get ready for the worst. This morning Gerde and his staff faced the daunting task of demonstrating that the Singapore, which has computer systems rivaling those of an airplane, could hastily operate the old-fashioned way. They would have to communicate with the captain, standing six decks above on the bridge, with a non-electric telephone. They would have to descend into the depths of the engine bay and use an antiquated crank to slow down the ship. They would have to rely on analog gauges and paper charts instead of the sophisticated computer images they use now. . . . Like many large businesses, the Singapore already has tested its computer systems for Y2K problems. On Friday, for instance, while the vessel was leaving Seattle, its veteran captain, Jon Harrison, ordered that the master clock be rolled forward to 11:50 p.m. on Dec. 31. Ten minutes later, "nothing happened," he said. Despite the positive test results, the Coast Guard wants to make sure ships are ready for any unforeseen problems that might arise on Jan. 1. "Rolling the clocks forward doesn't guarantee that a system will work just fine in the new year," said Coast Guard Rear Adm. George N. Naccara, who supervised today's drill. "You have got to be able to deal with the contingency that your computers won't work -- and you need to practice how you'll react to that." Along those lines, the electric-power industry is planning to conduct a two-day drill in September, demonstrating how utilities would deploy extra staff, if needed, on New Year's Eve. The simulation also will test power companies' abilities to communicate with each other using backup radios should telephone service be interrupted. . . . Government and industry officials acknowledge that their contingency efforts, which assume worst-case scenarios, could breed a fear of severe social and economic disruptions at the year's end. As a result, many organizations, particularly federal agencies, have been reluctant to disclose their plans publicly. "There is a public perception issue," said Stephen Frycki, the managing director of Y2K services at DMR Consulting Group Inc. in Edison, N.J. "But eventually people will realize that these efforts are intended to ensure that daily life can continue like normal even if something does happen." ... |
| 1999-06-16 | Amerikansk gallup: 47% tror att det är "troligt" att bankpanik utbryter på grund av y2k-problemen |
Länken går till en rapport i pdf-format som har titeln "Y2K And The Banking Industry". Undersökningen är utförd av The Gallup Organization på uppdrag av Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, FDIC, en myndighet som övervakar banksektorn i USA. Flera saker i rapporten borde få den mest naiva optimisten att höja på ögonbrynen.
47 procent av respondenterna tror att det är troligt (likely) att allmänheten får panik och tar ut sina sparmedel före årsskiftet. 47 procent!!! Kan Ni tänka er vad detta får för effekter på banksystemet och marknaden? Att folk tar ut sina pengar behöver alltså inte bero på att de övertygade om att bankerna inte klarar att åtgärda sina system i tid, utan för att de inser att det faktum att många andra tar ut sina pengar leder till att deras egna pengar i fara. Det finns inte tillräckligt med "fiat-money", dvs sedlar och mynt, i systemen för att det ska räcka till alla. Bankpaniken kan alltså uppstå även om bankerna faktiskt skulle klara av de tekniska aspekterna av problemet. De psykologiska aspekterna har de ingen kontroll över. "With respect to public response to Y2K threats, nearly half (47 percent) consider it likely that people will panic and withdraw all their funds prior to year’s end, compared to 37 percent who consider it unlikely" (p. 14). 1/5 av respondenterna tror att hela banksystemet kommer att kollapsa år 2000! I rapporten använder man denna makalösa formulering: "Barely one respondent in five believes that the entire banking system will be forced to shut down by computer problems" (p. 16). "Knappt 1/5"... Knappt? Den som har författat denna rapport gör verkligen sitt bästa för att avdramatisera konsekvenserna av vad som framkommer i undersökningen. Om en av fem tror att hela banksystemet kommer att kollapsa är det riktigt, riktigt allvarligt. Om dessa människor bara är avlägset rationella innebär borde de göra vad de kan för att säkra sina tillgångar inför årsskiftet. Och om alla andra "vet" att 20% av befolkningen kommer att ta ut alla sina pengar, hur kommer dessa övriga 80% att agera med den vetskapen? |
| 1999-06-15 | Ford: Stor osäkerhet råder om underleverantörer |
Ford har ca 20000 underleverantörer, varav ca 1700 levererar delar till fordonen som tillverkas. Det kan räcka att En av dessa underleverantörer inte klarar av y2k-problemen för att produktionslinjen stängs ner.
Across the sprawling operations of the Ford Motor Co., for example, managers have spent the better part of two years trying to understand all the connections between them and their 20,000 suppliers spread around the world. On Ford's assembly line, where some parts arrive just an hour or two before they are used, a failure by any of the 1,700 suppliers of car parts has the potential to disrupt the line. The company has contacted all of its direct suppliers, but it is at a loss to figure the preparedness of the layers below them. "It's an area of uncertainty," said Steven Turner, manager of Y2K supply issues for Ford. "After a while, the numbers [of suppliers] just get astronomical." |
| 1999-06-14 |
Lyckat test för banker Men går det verkligen att dra slutsatser ur den världsomspännande test som genomförts? |
Ca 190 banker i 19 länder runt om i världen deltog under helgen i ett y2k-test. Enligt bankerna själva ska testet ha gått bra. Men, som sagt, det är vad de själva uppger. Samtidigt ska man komma ihåg att 190 banker inte är speciellt många i ett globalt perspektiv. De banker som deltog i testet var förmodligen några av de mest förberedda inför årsskiftet. Sedan kan man inte låta bli att undra om också detta test var lika riggat som det som genomförts av de amerikanska kraftbolagen. Vem eller vilken oberoende institution kontrollerar att testet genomförts på ett sätt som gör att det verkligen går att dra slutsatser från det?
Jag vill inte sticka under stolen med att banksektorn är den mest förberedda av alla sektorer med avseende på 2000-problemet. Samtidigt ska man komma ihåg att det inte räcker med 99% 2000-säkring. Alan Greenspan har varit särskilt noggrann med att påpeka detta. Alla måste vara klara och det finns tiotusentals banker i ungefär 180 länder världen över. Det kan räcka att ett fåtal av dessa tiotusentals banker inte hinner klart i tid för att det internationella systemet skall bli instabilt. |
| 1999-06-11 | Ingen ersättning från försäkringsbolagen vid flygförseningar vid årsskiftet |
Det här kanske får en och annan millennium-resenär att börja tveka.
Travellers who are held up over the millennium because of year 2000 problems will not be entitled to any insurance cover. The Association of British Insurers (ABI) also warns that people who have already booked trips will not be reimbursed if they cancel their bookings because of fears of the millennium bug. But, the ABI says that any travellers who become ill and need medical treatment or lose any luggage as a result of delays caused by the bug, will be eligible for compensation. |
| 1999-06-11 | Menar han verkligen allvar? |
En anonym kinesisk banktjänsteman uttalade sig nyligen med orden: "Det är ingen fara. Ni behöver inte ta ut era pengar. Skulle något hända har vi kontoutdrag utskrivna."
Vad hjälper det kineserna? När det kinesiska finansiella systemet kollapsar 1 januari 2000, kommer kineserna ändå inte att komma åt sina pengar. Samtidigt slungas världen in i en recession på grund av den kinesiska kollapsen, oljekrisen, kraftbortfallet i öststaterna och de avstängda kärnkraftverken i Frankrike och Tyskland. Fast det kanske inte påverkar oss här i Sverige... eller vad säger Ni, Affärsvärlden? |
| 1999-06-11 | Amerikanskt tvivel på oljeflöden år 2000 - även en liten minskning av världsproduktionen kommer att få oljepriset att rusa i höjden |
A systems failure caused by the Y2K bug
could prove especially disastrous for the
oil industry, as disruptions could occur
anywhere along the supply chain -- from
oilfields and refineries, to shipping,
docking or unloading. Even if crude oil
supplies were only mildly affected, U.S
gasoline prices could rise sharply.
“It wouldn’t take more than a two percent cut in output -- 1.5 million bpd -- to dramatically alter oil market fundamentals and lead to a significant price increase,’’ says Peter Bogin of Paris-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates. The senate panel has expressed concern about oil prices too. Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, head of the Y2K panel with Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn. ,noted that even the slight reduction in OPEC production recently resulted in a 20 percent increase in gas prices. “Clearly a minimal reduction in world supply can have disproportionate effects on price,” Sen. Bennett observed. |
| 1999-06-11 |
IT-experter mer oroade än vanligt folk
De som jobbar med problemet är tydligen mer oroade än andra... något att fundera över... |
45% av IT-experterna tror på "bump in the road"-scenariot, dvs att små incidenter inträffar, men att de inte blir så allvarliga att de orsakar störningar i samhället.
45% av IT-experterna tror att Y2K kommer att påverka samhället i mycket stor omfattning. Resterande 10% av IT-experterna tror att Y2K innebär "the end of the world as we know it", TEOTWAWKI. TEOTWAWKI innebär inte slutet på civilisationen, men väl ett slut på nuvarande samhällsordning. Det blir ett paradigmskifte. Undersökningen som genomförts av Bruce Webster med intervjuer av 337 IT-experter, sammanfattas här av USA Today. |
| 1999-06-11 | Indiens kraftförsörjning allvarligt hotad | Ett möte med Committee of Secretaries (CoS) under gårdagen avslöjade att byråkratin i Indien sätter sina spår på arbetet mot 2000-säkring. |
| 1999-06-10 | Karl Feilder: PC-problemen kommer inte att börja märkas förrän i februari 2000 - sedan blir det bara värre |
"In the first couple of days of January 2000, not much is going to happen, and probably the media will write stories about how it was all a hoax. By the end of January, when people start to not be able to invoice their customers, not be able to process their sales forecasts, not be able to pay their staff, then they'll start to realize maybe there's a problem here and it's quite serious. "But in February when people are trying to unravel what happened in January and they're still processing that month's data, you'll get this cumulative data error, and that's when companies will come unstuck because they'll run out of cash ... then your business is dead." That, he said, will be "intensely inconvenient for many, many people." "There certainly will be some businesses that go broke, people will be made redundant and inevitably some people will die." Not because of Y2K itself, he added, but from not having contingency plans when systems fail. An advisor to Y2K task forces in Britain, South Africa and Australia, Feilder takes Y2K seriously enough to have told the Australians to postpone the Sydney Olympics, to be held nine months after the century turns, because the world won't have recovered by then. He was ignored. Feilder figures only two per cent of the world's PCs have been checked so far. "We're in a pickle, a very, very bad situation. And I think what's needed, first of all, is that end users have to take ownership of the situation. So many people I talk to say 'the IT department's going to fix it, or 'Microsoft's going to fix it.' "The second thing they need to do is get off the compliance bandwagon. It's not about compliance, it's about risk management. People need to have enough information to make an informed risk decision" about their hardware and software, he said. |
| 1999-06-10 |
Affärsvärlden: "Lugnt inför årsskiftet" Men var tog våra grannländer vägen??? |
Affärsvärlden konstaterar att det inte finns någon anledning till oro inför årsskiftet, ty de svenska storföretagen och de svenska IT-företagen ligger bra till. Grunden för dessa påståenden är en enkät som företagen själva har fått fylla i. En fråga: Vilket företag kommer att erkänna att de kommer få problem vid årsskiftet? Sådana erkännanden lär tidigast dyka upp när vi närmar oss årsskiftet...
Och var tog omvärlden vägen? Sverige är, för att använda sig av makro-ekonomisk terminologi, en "liten, öppen ekonomi". Om våra grannländer och handelspartners får problem så drabbar det i allra högsta grad oss själva förr eller senare. Och den analys som Gartner Group hänvisar till i sin artikel, som visserligen säger att situationen i Sverige är relativt ljus, säger också att situationen är betydligt värre i många av de länder med vilka vi utbyter information, varor och tjänster. Hur kan Affärsvärlden kalla det en analys om man utelämnar en av de största variablerna? Eller vill Affärsvärlden hävda att Sverige är immunt mot påverkan från exempelvis internationella räntor, valutor, global konjunktur och kapitalströmmar? |
| 1999-06-10 | Svenskarna lugna | Styrelsen för Psykologiskt Försvar har undersökt "medborgarnas grad av oro över och upplevda informationsbehov kring förväntade problem i samband med millennieskiftet, myndigheternas information till medborgarna om problemens art och grad av allvar, samt medierapporteringen kring problematiken." Allt är lugnt och fint. Väldigt få känner oro. Alla tycks lita på att "alla andra" gör "något". Ni vet, dom där "andra". Ingen ifrågasätter. |
| 1999-06-08 | Supplier-dependent companies face extra Y2K risks |
Är ditt företag beroende av många leverantörer? (De flesta är det...)
Never too ready Here's the rub. Let's say that you are the CEO of a distribution company. Let's assume that you have spent millions in testing and repairing your legacy applications, perhaps even replacing large mainframe computers and operating systems. And let's assume you spend millions more finding and fixing your date-sensitive embedded logic systems in office equipment, security and building systems, vehicle fleets and highly automated picking and warehouse systems. Then you turn your attention to testing and repairing your network workstations, the stand-alone computers, and your mission-critical PC software such as routing and scheduling systems. You've done your job well. Right? Not necessarily. In spite of all you've done, important high-risk elements remain. If you stop here, you may not be exercising due diligence. Diligence is due What's lacking? First, you must establish that your customers are, in fact, going to be around after the year 2000. Those that fail will likely saddle you with huge, uncollectible receivables. And where are you going to make up for your smaller customer base? Chances are, customers will not switch their distributor arrangements unless their current supplier is itself a failure. In other words, the year 2000 is not a time for trying out new relationships except as a recovery from failure. On the other hand, suppose your suppliers fail. If enough fall victim to Y2K, it may prevent you from delivering products to your customers. Not many businesses stay open without something to sell. Y2K compliance isn't cheap, but noncompliance will surely carry a much higher price tag. If the shortage is temporary, financial loss is the outcome. And that will be bad enough. But if the shortage is long term, customer failures are likely. Then you're faced with not only having to write-off considerable receivables, but more than likely, you'll find yourself engaged in legal action. |
| 1999-06-08 | Latinamerika ligger långt efter | Denna artikel om läget i de latinamerikanska ländernas statliga förvaltningar är nedslående. Brasiliens totala budget för y2k-omställningen är 300 miljoner USD. Med tanke på att Brasilien har 166 miljoner invånare och är bland världens 10 mest datorintensiva länder är denna summa försvinnande liten. Och Venezuela uppges ha gett upp hoppet om att åtgärda sina system och kommer i stället att ha 15000 ingenjörer på plats natten mot 1 januari. Det kommer att hjälpa föga. Om det tagit år för många företag och länder att förbereda sig så lär 15000 ingenjörer i Venezuela på nyårsnatten inte göra någon skillnad. Läs och förskräcks. |
| 1999-06-07 | "Dow Jones faller flera tusen punkter före 1 januari" |
Det här är en man som tänker precis som jag. Barry Kitt, förvaltare av Pinnacle Fund, en hedgefond med säte i Dallas, USA, har minskat drastiskt på sin fonds innehav inför årsskiftet. Han förutspår minst sagt händelserika månader framöver. Det här är några citat som DU bara måste ta del av:
"For the first time in the history of the stock market, we have a date-certain event that could become a worldwide cataclysmic event." "There will come a financial cataclysm that will affect any portfolio that invests in securities." ...But Kitt (who describes himself as "typically a bull investor") knows Wall Street makes decisions more on emotion than on logic, more on perception than on reality. And there are enough investors out there who fear the Y2K Bug to cause the Dow Jones averages, the S&P averages and the Russell averages to shift downward. "Let's assume that only 30% of all investors pull out of the market during the last half of this year," Kitt said. "That's more than enough to cause a major, major correction. I wouldn't predict how low the Dow will go. No one's smart enough to guess that correctly. But it would not surprise me at all if the Dow falls by several thousand points before Jan. 1." Kitt expects the Dow and other indexes to cascade downward in the coming months, not in a single plunge, but in a series of volatile up-and-down corrections that will take away much of what the market has gained in recent years. As the news media begins to feed the public a steady diet of doom and gloom, more and more individual investors will dump their mutual funds and their stock portfolios. "Everybody thinks they're a day trader now," Kitt says. "All you have to do is make a phone call and you're out. It's just too easy to exit mutual funds." Corporate bonds also will suffer as investors begin to question their safety. "The market will implode," Kitt says frankly. As for the individual investor, Kitt's advice is simple: Get out now. Sell that stock; dump that mutual fund. Put your money in a money market account or in a mutual fund that invests in government bonds. Stay away from everything else, he says. There are no other safe havens. "If I pull my money out now, I lose nothing," Kitt says. "My only risk is an upside risk and I'll accept that to avoid losing money. No one can time the market. I'd say get out now while the market is at a high." |
| 1999-06-07 | Det kommer att bli kaos i och utanför Rotterdam i januari |
Rotterdam kommer bara att acceptera fartyg som är 2000-säkrade nästa år. Undrar hur teknikerna kommer att reparera ej 2000-säkrade fartyg mitt ute på öppna havet 1 januari 2000?
In the Netherlands, the port of Rotterdam has already announced that it will bar all ships that cannot prove their Y2K compliance during the New Year's period, forcing them to journey elsewhere or wait in the open sea. |
| 1999-06-07 | Tysklands inställning kan mycket väl bli dess fall | Tyskland klarade av införandet av Euron. Det gick bra, därför kommer inte heller y2k att utgöra något problem. Y2K-farorna är överdrivna. Så resonerar tyskarna. Strutsmentalitet. |
| 1999-06-06 | Nya Zeeland: Deadlines skjuts upp | Paretos 80-20 regel nämns ofta i samband med y2k. Ed Yourdon skrev nyligen i en artikel att 80% av alla IT-projekt inte lyckas hålla sig inom vare sig tids- eller budgetramar. Nu börjar vi se verkligheten. Förseningar. Uppskjutna deadlines. Det är bara en tidsfråga innan också svenska företag och myndigheter medger att de kanske inte hinner klart i tid. |
| 1999-06-06 | New York börsen skjuter upp förlängt öppethållande | Y2K anges som orsak till att New York-börsen skjuter upp planerna på att förlänga öppettiderna för aktiehandeln. |
| 1999-06-06 | Problemet med integrerade tester |
Det är en sak att testa ett isolerat system. En helt annan att testa flera av varandra beroende system samtidigt. En krönika av Dick Mills på Westergaard.
The point is that you can never tell for sure that components that work in isolation will work together as an integrated system until you try it. In the cultures of software developers and system integrators, it is considered dumb and naÏve to even hope that your software really works until it passes integrated testing. The only prudent assumption is that, "Everything that isn't tested doesn't work." The question of the day is therefore, "How can utilities claim to be Y2K ready while doing little or no integrated testing?" |
| 1999-06-06 | Iran ber om internationell hjälp | Iran. Då tänker jag på olja. Lite väl sent att först nu ha fått upp ögonen för att övergången till år 2000 kommer att innebära problem. |
| 1999-06-06 | Några anledningar till varför det är berättigat att vara försiktig inför årsskiftet | En krönika av E.L. Core på Westergaards site. |
| 1999-06-06 | Elproducent i Australien kan inte garantera el år 2000 |
När man läser den här artikeln kan man inte låta bli att fråga sig hur bra koll de svenska elproducenterna egentligen har. Jag menar, här gick de australiska intresseorganisationerna och myndigheterna ut och försäkrade att branschen skulle ha allt under kontroll till förra årsskiftet. Och så dyker det här upp.
Vilken tur att våra svenska elproducenter och Svenska Kraftnät kan garantera el... Tyvärr, men det kan dom inte. Men dom "jobbar på det". Jobba på. Powercor cannot guarantee year 2000 compliance of suppliers nor uninterrupted supply of electricity. In what is claimed to be the most detailed public disclosure from an Australian power utility about the millennium bug, Victoria's biggest electricity distributor has stated that it cannot guarantee uninterrupted supply of electricity next year. Powercor, which supplies electricity to much of western Victoria, estimates that it will not finish key parts of its Y2K program until this September. This contrasts with previous claims by the Victorian electricity industry that it would be Y2K compliant by the end of last year. Powercor cites its dependence on the performance of non-compliant electricity generators and transmission companies to deliver power as a reason for not being able to guarantee supply. "Although Powercor understands that most of its suppliers have year 2000 projects under way, those suppliers have not provided a guarantee that they are as yet compliant," the disclosure states. "Consequently, Powercor cannot guarantee the year 2000 compliance of its suppliers, nor the uninterrupted supply of electricity. "In particular, Powercor is dependent and relies on the performance of the generators and transmission operators to deliver electricity into our distribution system." The news from Powercor is consistent with the Victorian Government's most recent monthly Y2K report which said that all three sectors of the electricity supply industry distribution, transmission and generation were behind schedule in their Y2K programs. |
| 1999-06-06 | Nigeria har inte ens upprättat handlingsplan | Nigeria är en av världens största oljeproducerande nationer och den näst största ekonomin i Afrika. Landet har inte ens upprättat en handlingplan inför årsskiftet. En sån här nyhet borde få världens finansmarknader att svaja till ordentligt. Inte ens ett hack i kurvorna. Börserna fortsätter upp. Ingen tar notis. Ingen VILL (in)se problemen. |
| 1999-06-06 | EU oroas över y2k |
Det här är från IDG:
EU oroas över y2k-buggen i kärnkraftverk (1999-06-03 17:02)
Enligt en rapport som ska presenteras inför EU-toppmötet i Köln nästa vecka är kommissionen orolig över att ansvariga myndigheter i forna Sovjet och Östeuropa inte har vidtagit tillräckliga åtgärder för att åtgärda 2000-buggen. Främst befarar kommissionen att datorsystem på kärnkraftverken slutar fungera vilket kan leda till haverier eller strömförsörjningsproblem. När det gäller problemen inom själva unionen är det enligt rapporten svårt att få tag i tillförlitlig information, men att det ändå är tydligt att vissa sektorer är eftersatta. Främst är det småföretagen som har hamnat på efterkälken. Men man känner även oro för elavbrott, problem med vattenförsörjningen och att telenäten blir överbelastade till följd av att folk vill ha hjälp med sina 2000-haverier. |