Many managers spent a great deal of their time handling one crisis after another. It is a vicious cycle because the more time managers spend in dealing with current prolems the less time they spend in managing which in turn create more operational problems.The most effective way of breaking the cycle is to deliberately engage in potential problem analysis. This preventive measure involves the following steps : -
1) Defining Desired Objective
2) Planning Action Steps
3) Analysing Potential Problems
4) Identifying Preventive Measures
5) Minimising Impact
6) Modifying Action Plan
Defining Desired Objectives
The starting point of the potential porblem analysis process is deciding what the desired end result should be. It is very important that the criteria by which success is judged is clearly stated. A clear success statement serves as a useful reference point for planning the activities necessary to achieve the objective.
Planning Action Steps
All the activities necessary in order to ahcieve success should be listed in chronological order. These steps should preferably be time-phased if possible so as to highligh the significance of timing. Any action steps which requires to be taken concurrently should also be highlighted.
Analysing Potential Problems
All major activities should be carefully reviewed for potential problems. All high risks areas should be noted and an indication made regarding the probability of something going awry. More importantly, consideration must be given to the seriousness of the impact.The potential problems which have great impact should then be analysed for the likely causes. These possible causes should be classified as to their probability of occurrence.
Identifying Preventive Measures
The process thus far has identified the high risks areas and the likely causes of potential problems. More importantly, it has drawn management attention to those causes which have both a high probability of occurring as well as a great negative imact thus enabling management to take appropriate preventive measures.
Minimising Impact
Sometimes the best plan do not work despite preventive measures taken. It is thus prudent to engage not only in preventive action but also in contingency planning. It is useful to have ready a contingency action plan to mitigate the impact should the problems occur. These contingency action steps are planned only for those probable causes having great impact.
Modifying Action Plan
The Original Action Plan (Step 2) should be modified to incorporate the appropriate preventive and contingent actions to reduce the overall risks. The Modified Plan should preferably be time-phased with trigger points so that progress is properly monitored and automatically alerts management as to the need to implement contingent actions.
SUMMARY
Managers very often feel pressured for time and tend to engage in crisis management. Many operational problems can be averted if there is more pre-planning and potential problem analysis. The above systematic approach is a means of disciplining managers to spend more of their time and effort in preventing problems from even occurring.Potential problem anaysis also highlights to management from the outset what performance deviations could occur and how serious these might impact the eventual outcome. It forewarns management as to the possible probability and magnitude of potential problems and enables them to pre-plan preventive as well as contingent measures. The process thus enhances managerial effectiveness in either preventing the problems from occuring or mitigating its impact.
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