Statistics breakdown. Our 15 regular, human
experts overall picked 2666 games correctly out of 4054 games for a grand percentage of
65.76%. Consensus Curtis, the pooled knowledge of our group, came in at 69.76%; only one expert was smarter than the collective unconscious of
the whole group (Matthias).
In the analysis below, I have used the Spearman correlation, which basically tells you to what extent
being ranked first in a statistical category predicts a high ranking in Season Percentage, the
ranking that really counts. A score of 1 means a perfect correlation (wherever you finish in a
category is where you finish in percentage); a score of 0 means no correlation (the statistic is
worthless for predicting where you will finish); a score of -1 means inverse correlation (you
want to finish dead last in a category so you'll be first in the percentage). Here's the lowdown:
Weeks Won correlated .55, and the correlation was significant. Unlike 1998, there was a tendency for people who won a lot of weeks to do well overall. That didn't help John, however.
Exact Scores correlated .30, but that was not significant. As in 1998, an exact score was picked only 9 times all season, although in 1999 there were more games picked and more experts to pick them (9 out of 4109 is just .22%).
Close Scores correlated .04, not significant (360 of 4109 picks, 8.76%). Although close scores champ ROBERT did much better overall in 1999 than 1998, picking close doesn't generally mean you will pick correctly.
Upset Index correlated -.56, significant. Unlike in 1998, there was a tendency for higher upset indices to lead to poor overall performance, which favored "Freddie Favorites" like Kelly, ROBERT, jayhusker, and Oz.
Upset IQ correlated .94, and this correlation was significant. Not surprisingly, the better you are at picking upsets, the better your score overall.
Pearson correlations were the same except that the Upset Index correlation was not significant (but was still fairly high in the negative direction, .46).
| 1999 |
| Expert |
Weeks Won |
Close Scores |
Exact Scores |
Upset Index |
Upset IQ |
| Matthias |
3 |
18 |
0 |
0.16 |
48.6% |
| Consensus Curtis |
2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Kelly |
4 |
29 |
1 |
0.12 |
45.5% |
| ROBERT |
4 |
41 |
1 |
0.12 |
44.1% |
| heater14 |
4 |
24 |
0 |
0.14 |
42.5% |
| jayhusker |
1 |
24 |
3 |
0.11 |
40.0% |
| Keith |
3 |
19 |
0 |
0.20 |
42.9% |
| Kevin |
0 |
25 |
1 |
0.17 |
41.7% |
| Oz |
3 |
22 |
1 |
0.11 |
34.4% |
| The New H Man |
3 |
23 |
0 |
0.25 |
40.0% |
| dan |
0 |
29 |
0 |
0.18 |
38.8% |
| john |
4 |
28 |
1 |
0.16 |
36.4% |
| Saint Daddy |
0 |
20 |
1 |
0.19 |
30.2% |
| schmookie |
2 |
28 |
0 |
0.16 |
26.8% |
| Webmaestro |
1 |
23 |
0 |
0.20 |
30.4% |
| NIT Fan |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0.33 |
0.0% |
| Master O |
0 |
24 |
0 |
0.19 |
24.5% |
| Homer |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Caneman |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0.23 |
44.4% |
Note: The New H Man had the highest Upset Index because NIT Fan did not participate in a full season.
End Of Season Awards
At the end of each season since 1997, I have handed out at least one award to each expert that completed the season. Some of the awards are tied to statistical performance, while others are a bit more creative. For a description of these awards, see the hall of fame page on awards. Because 1999 awards were not given until 2000, not everyone received an award that season.
Picks Contest Championship: Kelly
Good Neighbor Award: Consensus Curtis
Midwest Region Champion: Matthias
Most Improved Expert: ROBERT
Picks Page Expert To Watch: Kevin
Rookie Of The Year: jayhusker
Freddie Favorite Certificate: jayhusker
Browbeater Of The Year: Kelly
Send Me To Vegas Award: ROBERT
Fall From Grace Award: Webmaestro
Misplaced Priorities Award: Matthias
Renegade Award: The New H Man
Bottom Feeder: Homer
Steady Freddie Award: Heater14
Loyaly Award: Keith
Pulitzer Prize: Saint Daddy (For "Red River Shootout", a guest commentary, and "Watching With St. GrandDaddy", a mailing list posting)
©SJS Designs