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| SJS College Football Extravaganza |
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| Commentary | ||
Conference Of The Decade, Kevin...
Well, Kevin didn't mean to be inflammatory, any more than usual. In fact, when I began my quest, I wasn't absolutely sure I could prove him wrong. But enough preamble. What was it that sent me into the data mines to undertake the most research-intensive commentary in SJS College Football Extravaganza history? At the bottom of his week 3 top 25, Kevin wrote: "Maybe a little Big Ten heavy, but there is no doubt at this point of the season that this is the best conference in college football - perhaps the best conference in all of the 1990's." Now, there's not much worth arguing about when it comes to the first premise. Perhaps the Big Ten is the best conference in college football this year, with Penn State, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana playing good football. Then again, Ohio State's loss to Miami and Wisconsin's embarassment at the hands of Cincinatti (something Kevin couldn't have forseen in Week 3), provide fuel for opponents of that position. The argument there is more a matter of opinion. But for the second premise, we have data. And to that data, I will now turn. National Championships Thanks to some split polls, there were 12 national champions from 1990 to 1998. Here is the conference breakdown:
I counted Miami as an Independent because they were not playing a full conference schedule in the Big East in 1991. The clear winner here is the Big 12, although one of their championships was perhaps the most jackassed championship of the century: Colorado, in 1990, who required a fifth down against Missouri and a close clipping call in the Orange Bowl to reach the summit. The other three championships were all Nebraska. The SEC does nearly as well, and their championships come from three different teams. In the Big Ten's defense, their one championship comes with an asterisk, since Penn State had an undefeated season in 1994 but ended up ranked second in both polls. National Rankings National championships are important, obviously, but they only tell you how the cream of the crop in a conference is doing. Plus a team like Penn State in 1994 or Auburn in 1993 can go undefeated but not top the final polls. A broader view can be obtained by looking at the final AP polls for the years 1990 to 1998. What you hope to see to make the claim that your conference is dominating is an average of perhaps four teams yearly in the top 25, with a fair number in the top 10. You also might like a little diversity, to show that the conference is truly competitive, top to bottom. Here's the numbers:
Clearly, the SEC is far out in first place. Of course, polls are subject to bias, and you might argue that if their is already a myth that the SEC is the strongest conference, then pollsters might be more inclined to rank an SEC team than say a Big Ten team. Maybe, but you have to start stretching the matter a bit. I believe it is noteworthy that these are post-bowl polls, however, which frequently pit the SEC teams against the Big Ten or ACC, and it is difficult to endorse the premise that those performances are weighted less than personal bias. I think is is also striking that 48% of the SEC's top 25 finishes were top 10 finishes, a percentage better than would be expected by chance. None of the other major conferences even approach this ratio, which tends to be around 35%. As far as diversity goes, no one conference has an exclusive or more impressive claim. Of the five major conferences profiled, the Pac Ten has been the most prolific, placing 9 of its 10 schools in the final top 25 during the 90s. The SEC and Big Ten failed to place 3 schools, and the ACC and Big Twelve failed to place 2 schools. Out Of Conference Performances What really matters, though, is how the teams perform in head to head match ups. To analyze this, I looked at every team's nonconference performance from 1990 to 1998. Painstaking as this analysis sounds (and was), it was further complicated by the fact the the member institutions of these five conferences have not been static over the 9-year period reviewed. With that in mind, here are the ground rules I chose to live by:
Ground rules out of the way, what's the result? The table below looks at the nonconference records of the five major conferences during regular season games:
Obviously, the SEC has far and away the best winning percentage. The margin is striking: while there is not much at all to decide among the ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, and Pac Ten, who are within .012 of one another, the SEC is .1099 better than its closest competitor. This is what we here in the scientific profession call a "highly significant result." My, yes. We shall worry about strength of schedule later. For now, note that the conference has a winning percentage of .5844 in regular season games against teams currently in the other 4 major conferences (whereas the Big Ten is .5238). Many of the arguments about strength of schedule can be addressed by looking at postseason performance, when generally, teams with similar regular season records are matched up against one another. Let's take a look:
Again, it is a slam dunk for the SEC. They have the best bowl win percentage by a long shot, and only the Big 12 has kept up with the SEC in terms of head to head matchups thanks to Nebraska pummeling Florida and Tennessee prior to their national championship seasons. As far as diversity goes, the ACC has landed 9 of its 9 schools in bowl games during the 90s, the Big 12 10 of its 12 schools, and the other conferences each have only one team that did not go to a bowl. Here now is the combined regular season and postseason numbers:
Again the SEC is far and away the winner. True, if you want to talk strength of schedule, you can make a case for the SEC as playing perhaps the weakest. An estimate of that could be made by comparing the number of games played in the last three categories. It works out that SEC schools have played two thirds of their non-conference games against teams from outside of the six major conferences (throwing in the Big East). In contrast, the Big Ten does an excellent job, playing just 45% of its non-conference games against these easier opponents, and the Big Ten has far more games against a top notch independent (Notre Dame) than the SEC. But head to head, the Big Ten is just 9-14 against teams currently in the SEC, and the SEC has a winning percentage of .591 against the major conferences. The Big Ten mark is .545. Conference of the Decade We conclude, therefore, without shame and without much fear, that the SEC is truly the conference of the decade. The Big Ten has played good football, to be sure, but their legacy in the 90s may be more about unfulfilled expectations than domination. The numbers do not give us a clear number 2, so it may be that the Big Ten could claim that spot. But with four national championships and the second-highest non-conference win percentage, the Big Twelve may have something to say about that. And see, I DO read the comments that appear at the bottom of your top 25s! |
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Life as the Webmaestro is not particularly easy. You try to keep up with the deadlines, and then you notice that the Division I-A bums have scheduled games on Labor Day Monday. Or you come home from a long weekend prepared to update the page, and your hard drive has crashed. Or your very own brother sneaks in some inflammatory comments in his top 25 submission, and it takes you two weeks to research your response.