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| SJS College Football Extravaganza |
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| Commentary | ||
Off To The Races
The ACC Projected winner: Florida State The Seminoles lead the ACC with a 5-0 record and their toughest test out of the way. Their win over Georgia Tech early in the season ended a great deal of suspense for fans of the ACC, who will now begin to ponder whether or not Duke can repeat in hoops. Clemson, at 3-1, is still in the hunt because they are the only ACC team that still controls its own destiny. If they can win out, which would include a home win over Florida State, then they could theoretically secure a share of the conference crown with the Seminoles. Florida State would likely remain the ACC representative in the BCS, but don't count Georgia Tech out as a possible at large team. Florida State also has a game at Virginia that could be troubling, but most would agree that they will beat the Cavs and the Terps and finish undefeated in-conference. If Clemson were to pull the upset, then they would have to win out to retain a share of the crown. Unfortunately for Tigers fans, a game at Georgia Tech looms on November 13. The Big East Projected winner: Virginia Tech One of the dorkier things about the Big East conference is that each team plays 7 conference games. That means in alternating seasons, a school will have to play an extra conference game on the road, reducing the chances that that school can win the conference crown. For the front-running Hokies, the schedule is in a bad part of the cycle, or so you would think. They have only three conference home games, but look what they are: the already-vanquished Syracuse, Miami, and 5-1 Boston College. The road games are all cupcakes. The Hurricanes, oddly enough, have yet to play a Big East game. The rainout against Temple will be made up December 6, meaning the Canes must travel to Boston College to kick off the conference slate. Although the Eagles have looked a pretty hollow 5-1, the Miami-BC road trip is the longest in the Big East and one of the longer in-conference hikes in the NCAA. Miami, like Virginia Tech, controls its own fate for the conference crown, unfortunately, its fate will be decided on the road: at BC this week, at Virginia Tech on November 13. A win there and Miami will have to reverse its humilation at the hands of Syracuse last year; that game, at least, is in Miami. The Big Twelve Projected winner: Texas A&M The Big Twelve picture is still pretty muddy. Let's start with the Big Twelve North, which boils down to two teams: Nebraska and Kansas State, both 3-0. Colorodo technically controls its own fate still, but they have looked too vulnerable to take seriously. Interestingly, while the Kansas State-Nebraska game (at Lincoln) is surely the game you can point to as being all-important, the Wildcats can lose that game and still end up in the championship. Here's why: The Cats remaining Big Twelve slate is at Oklahoma State, Baylor, Colorado, at Nebraska, and Missouri, which looks like a 4-1 type finish to me. Nebraska, on the other hand, has at Texas, at Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, and at Colorado. Given that the game against the Buffs is on the road, only one of those games is a sure thing and 3-2 seems as likely as 4-1. I may change my mind if Nebraska handles Texas on Saturday, but if they don't win, or if they struggle, than lookout for K State. In the South, everyone but Baylor is involved. The reason, as usual, is Texas Tech. For the third straight year they threw a wrench in the works by toppling Texas A&M. Now 5 teams have one loss. Oklahoma State, ever solid of late, is 1-1, and a resurgent Oklahoma at 1-1 looks like they could beat anybody on any given day. Furthermore, the fortunes of the front runners (Texas and Texas A&M) are complicated by games against Nebraska. So it wouldn't take much for a surprise to occur. The aforementioned Red Raiders, even without Ricky Williams, have already won their toughest game, and face Iowa State and Missouri from the North. With things so muddled, you play it safe and assume the most solid team will be the one to navigate the morass, and that is the Aggies. The championship game, no matter who it involves, should be terrific. In its three year history, it has seen to magnificent upsets. So who can tell? The Big Ten Projected winner: Penn State I spent a good deal of effort arguing that the Big Ten was hardly the conference of the decade, but I will admit that, week in and week out, they have provided the best football this season. Outside of Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern, the Big Ten has a great crop of contenders and spoilers. When this list is made at the end of the season of the biggest games, half will come from this conference. And so many biggies await. If Penn State goes undefeated this year, they will earn every accolade they will get. It seems like they have already been tested so much, but they are only 3-0 and have a few challenges remaining. Of the schedule down the road, two games are highly dangerous, two games are moderately intriguing, and only one can be guaranteed. At Illinois seems easy enough. The Minnesota game offers some chance of upset, but in Happy Valley, not a big chance. A bit more taxing will be the season finale against Michigan State at East Lansing. And the road game against Purdue and home game against Michigan could be real nail-biters. And yet, it is hard not to predict the Nitanny Lions the winner at this point because everyone else has one loss and everyone else seems likely to add to that count-- except maybe Wisconsin. Yes, the Badgers have backdoored into Rose Bowls before (and won them, thank you very much). They could do so again. With a new quarterback at the helm, they've looked awesome the last two weeks. The remaining slate is certainly less daunting than what the Nittany Lions face: Michigan State and Iowa at home, on the road at Purdue and Northwestern. True, 2-2 is not out of the question, but it is just as likely they will finish 4-0 and have a shot at the Rose. Certainly a tie for second is possible, but with the non-conference loss to Cincy on the books, that second place finish this year could mean a disappointed Hall Of Fame Bowl postseason slot. The impressive Spartans have a very difficult endgame, with 1-3 likely. Michigan has the best chance to upset Penn State, and if they do, a 5-0 finish and a Rose Bowl slot is virtually assured. They have the easiest end game (only assuming a Penn State road win), with other matchups against Illinois, Indiana, Nortwestern, and at home versus Ohio State, where the Buckeyes don't win even when they are contenders. As for the Gophers, beating Penn State, Purdue, and Ohio State is a pretty tall order, but beating one means a bowl game and a very pleasing season for a team that has not gone bowling this decade. The Big West Projected winner: Idaho How can a conference with only seven teams be so muddled? Because Big West football is crazy, no holds barred fun, and nobody knows anything about them. All we have known is that since the Humanitarian Bowl agreed to host its champion three years ago, Nevada was supposed to win every year. Instead it was a very unexpected Utah State the first year, and an even more unexpected Idaho last year. The Big West's main function is to provide Pac Ten, Mountain West, WAC, and SEC teams with easy wins, but this year Boise State, Idaho, North Texas, New Mexico State, and Nevada have all scored surprising non-conference wins. The only thing to expect about the Big West is (complete cliche here). North Texas is the only one listed with a conference loss, but they have played good football and could surprise some teams. Nevada and Idaho are certainly the teams to beat, with high powered offenses and... and, well, who needs defense anyway. In the Big West, defense is for chumps, and offense wins championships. And my dart board says Idaho, so there you go. Conference USA Projected winner: Southern Mississippi Look, the best team in the conference is Southern Miss, and the second best team is East Carolina. Louisville, with one conference loss, has one big thing going for them: they haven't lost to Southern Miss yet. East Carolina has. And it is too much for the Pirates to expect that the Golden Eagles will lose twice down the stretch, but a share of the conference title is still possible if the Golden Eagles stumble at Louisville, or less likely, to Cincy or Memphis. Mid-American Conference Projected winner: Marshall With all the attention on Marshall, people have yet to take notice of Gary Darnell's Western Michign Brocos, who are 4-0 and are storming through the western division of the MAC. A championship matchup with Marshall is highly likely, and an upset of the Herd is at least conceivable. Unfortunately for the Broncos, they must play the two best teams in the east (Marshall and Akron) and the other good team in the west (Toledo). Fortunately for the Broncos, Toledo is just 2-2 right now. As for Akron, one of the peculiarites of a 13-team conference is that they miss one team from their own eastern division, and hello, it is Marshall. Of course the bad part of that is that the Zips don't have a chance to control their own fate; at 4-1 they must hope for a Western Michigan upset of Marshall as well as taking care of their own business. The Mountain West Projected winner: Wyoming Two of the strongest contenders in the Mountain West, Air Force and Colorado State, might be surprised to look up and see themselves at the very bottom of the MWC standings. Both with two losses, the possibility of a 5-2 conference crown is not out of the question but certainly not likely at this point. Those two teams, and the decent 1-2 San Diego State team, are more likely spoilers for the undefeated BYU and Utah, and the one-loss Wyoming Cowboys. It is really too early to pick a favorite in the MWC, so I will stick with my preseason pick until matters force a reappraisal. The Pac Ten Projected winner: Stanford My goodness, the Stanford-Cal game actually means something this year! Stanford, at 4-0, leads the conference but still looks vulnerable given the nonconference beatings they took from Texas and lowly San Jose State. Still, they have one of the easier remaining schedules, as difficult as that is to estimate in this league. With the season finale against Notre Dame, the Cardinal could easily go undefeated in their league but end up 8-3 and three touchdown underdogs in the Rose Bowl. Arizona, my preseason number 1, has also looked bad out of conferece (Penn State and the narrow win over TCU), but seems to have the best team until they actually play the game. The loss to Stanford hurts. Do not expect them to finish 5-0, but 4-1 seems likely. The SEC Projected winner: Florida In the East, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky all have one loss, but the Bulldogs have seemed pretty punchless this year, looking unimpressive in their wins (UCF, LSU, Vanderbilt) and lossess (Tennessee) alike. Tennessee and Kentucky, while still alive as well, have already lost to Florida and thus cannot directly effect giving Florida its second loss. The Gators will be the East champion if they win out, and though they have looked shaky enough to call it a possibility, games against Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina will not inspire much hope in Knoxville or Lexington. The West, surprisingly, is a two-horse race, where in year's past it has been much less clear. The reason is that Western teams are getting some wins against Eastern teams. Alabama, at 4-0, looks to be the best of the West but must play Tennessee yet; in contrast, 3-0 Mississippi State has Kentucky. Nonetheless, the pivotal Bama-State game is in Tuscaloosa, plus a game at Arkansas and home against Ole Miss make finishing 6-2 far more likely than a return to the SEC championship game. Once there, Alabama could certainly beat Florida again, but beating Spurrier twice in the same season just doesn't happen. (Neither does Alabama winning in the Swamp either...) The Western Athletic Conference Projected winner: Fresno State As expected, the WAC has been pretty wide open with the split up of the conference. True, the best teams are gone, but the WAC has won several match ups with Mountain West teams this year, and once lowly Hawaii and UTEP are playing good football all of a sudden. Rice is the only undefeated team at 3-0, but has looked shaky in non-conference games and must beat a very good Fresno State team on the road. The Bulldogs, who exacted a little conference revenge in walloping the MWC's Colorado State 44-13, played well against Pac Ten teams but lost a Thursday night shocker to SMU. Still, they should beat Rice at home and then must beat Hawaii on the road. If they want the championship more than a weekend on the beach (not an easy choice to be sure), then they should come away with the WAC title. If not, then the Rainbow Warriors could pull off the same stunning turnaround that TCU did last year. With TCU and Fresno State at home, the schedule is on their side. And hell, they've done the beach. That's what Spring is for. |
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With this week's Boughter's Bluster taking a look at THE championship, I thought I would examine the championships... the conference races. Some conferences this year are a mess because they are so good (the Big Ten), and some because they are so bad (the Pac Ten). At essentially the midway point, here's how things stand.