| Datum | Länk | Egen kommentar |
| 1999-09-30 | Y2k, Stocks & The Economy: The Unavoidable Bear Market of 2000 |
Ytterligare en krönika på Gold Eagle.
...Even the heartiest optimists concede that the international situation looks negative. They just don't seem to grasp the idea that the United States will be seriously impacted. This defies logic, empirical evidence and past experience. At what point does the light bulb go on? At what point does Y2K denial become Y2K reality? Keep in mind that we in the US still have a long way to go before we can brag about our readiness. There are far too many government agencies and companies that are lagging behind schedule. The studies done by the Gartner Group, Cap Gemini, Weiss Research and other organizations that monitor Y2K show conclusively that many organizations will simply not make it in time. Anywhere from 22% to 40% of the Fortune 1000 will fall short of the immutable deadline. How does this impact the markets? How about personal financial planning? The ramifications for financial planning are obvious once you grasp the entire picture. If you knew that the company you just bought stock in was in danger of bankruptcy because of Y2K problems, what would you do? What would happen if you or a family member were employed by such a company? If your pension plan is totally invested in Fortune 500 stocks and you know that 22% to 40% of them will suffer losses from Y2K, what would you do? It's obvious that you would switch out of vulnerable investments into safer vehicles such as high-grade bonds or US Treasury securities (preferably). ...The Y2K problems, both direct and indirect, put every industry at great risk. Investments in these industries are then at risk. People and organizations that hold these investments are at risk. The stakes are very high and planners and their clients need to ask themselves some hard questions and assess their financial situations from a risk management perspective. I have told my clients and students to factor in Y2K in their financial planning because it is the prudent thing to do. Indeed, it is essential. People ask me . . . "What if you are wrong about the severity of Y2K?" First of all, I tell them that being wrong is what I hope for. What rational person hopes to be right about a disaster? The important point I make is that planning for problems is a low-cost, low-risk strategy. If my clients sell their stock now, they have locked in their gains. No one ever lost money taking a profit. It's better to incur a capital gains tax now than to suffer a heavy capital loss later. If Y2K blows over with minimum effects, then investors can breathe a sigh of relief and re-focus on growth and stock market investments. Diminish your exposure in the stock market. Use the current environment to consider selling off stock to lock in profits. I know I will be accused by some of creating panic with this suggestion. But isn't it time that public figures-- and financial planners and advisors-- began being honest with their readers and clients? The panic will come. It may happen in late 1999 or early 2000. This is inevitable. So by suggesting an "orderly pullout" now, I am mitigating the severity of that panic later. Isn't that the responsible and honest thing to do? If I don't do this, what do I say to my clients after they have lost 50% of their life-long savings when the market falls? That I didn't tell them the truth because I didn't want them to panic?? The American people are a lot smarter and a lot more levelheaded then we sometimes give them credit for, so long as we don't force them into a corner-- as the Y2K nay sayers are doing. |
| 1999-09-30 | Oro inför y2k i Libanon | Libanons finansiella institutioner ska inte ta något för givet över och efter årsskiftet, säger Libanons centralbank vid en konferens. |
| 1999-09-30 | Oro inför y2k i Polen | Polens telekommunikationer starkt riskutsatta, enligt analytiker. Aktier sjunker kraftigt inför årsskiftet. |
| 1999-09-30 | Irak: Problem med oljeutvinning vid årsskiftet |
Irak kanske slutar exportera olja nästa år. Det här är en Reuters-nyhet.
Iraq decides to wait and see on Y2K oil disruption BAGHDAD -- Iraq's oil industry is not prepared to deal with the Y2K problem and may well be forced to shut down production and exports at the turn of the year, a reliable industry source in Baghdad said on Wednesday. The source told Reuters that Iraqi oil officials were aware of the year 2000 computer problem but had decided to avoid the multi-million dollar cost of dealing with it. Asked what the oil ministry was doing to counter the Y2K changeover, the source said: "They are doing nothing." There was no immediate comment from the oil ministry. "There is awareness of Y2K but consultancy is very expensive. The alternative is to lose production over the millennium," the source said. He said Iraqi crude pumping stations and export facilities were likely to be hit by the problem and that engineers would have to deal with disruptions adhoc. Iraq is now OPEC's third largest exporter, delivering an average of 2.4 million barrels a day to world markets over the last month. "Any processing controllers by micro-processors such as distribution control systems or process logic controller (PLC) in computers manufactured prior to 1996 -- like the ones the Iraqis have -- will be unsafe to run any chemical or petro-chemical processes during the 2000 transition," the source added. "That means most of Iraq's refinery, fertilising plants and gas plants will have to make a decision on shutting down the process or risking the effects of Y2K on their systems." Process pneumatic systems in some refineries would not be affected, he added. Iraq's oil industry, like all sectors of the economy, has been hit hard by U.N. sanctions imposed shortly after Iraqi troops invaded Kuwait in 1990. Iraq is allowed under a deal with the United Nations to export oil worth $5.26 billion every six months to buy food and medicine and other essentials including spare parts to its oil industry. Oil experts have marvelled for the past several years that Iraq has been able to lift its production and oil exports levels despite little funds for maintenance. Iraq has continually produced and shipped more oil than experts hired by the United Nations have expected. It is expected to surpass the ceiling of $5.26 billion for the first time under the current six-month phase of the oil-for-food deal, thanks mainly to the spectacular recovery of oil prices this year and increased production. |
| 1999-09-29 | Europeiska oljebolag bygger upp lager inför årsskiftet |
Det här är en Reuters-nyhet. Hur mycket till stiger priserna? Och när börjar de dra iväg på allvar?
LONDON -- Some European oil companies are now stockpiling fuels in preparation for a potential supply crunch at the turn of the year. The companies said they were taking no chances with the millennium computer bug, boosting both crude and petroleum product reserves just in case the calendar switch to 2000 causes disruptions. An official with a leading German refiner heading up a 2000 compliance team said: "We feel we need to have an increased stock level although the extent of that hasn't been agreed yet." "We do intend to increase crude oil and product stocks at the refineries, and terminals we use for storage in exchange agreements," said the refiner, who asked not to be identified. The official said that no additional stock figure had been decided upon yet because there was a risk that everyone would begin stockpiling in December with the resulting surplus depressing prices in January. "There is a price risk. We will decide on the specific stock level in late December. We remain flexible and this will depend on how big we think the risk will really be," he said. |
| 1999-09-29 | 270.000 brittiska företag kommer inte göra tillräckligt inför årsskiftet |
Det här är från CNNfn/Tech. Apatin är utbredd. Hur utbredd är den egentligen i Sverige?
The warnings about the dreaded Millennium Bug have been sounded loud and clear for some time now - to the extent that there is perhaps another danger as threatening as the bug itself: that people will just switch off and say that they have heard it all. But for the amazing number of businesses which so far have done nothing at all to tackle the bug - around 70,000 of them, employing between 10 and 249 people each - there is still a chance to avert potential disaster. In fact, it is the last chance, and that is what Action 200 has called the guide it launched this month for businesses which have still to recognise the dangers. As well as the 70,000 businesses that have done nothing at all, 200,000 businesses are reckoned to have done little or nothing and there is still a last chance for all 1.3 million UK businesses to re- check that their bug programmes cover all areas and ensure that contingency plans are in place. With time rapidly running out, the guide is designed to be a concise and easy-to-use tool for businesses to assess risks, identify problems and take action to beat the bug. The guide also gives practical advice on contingency planning and preparing for the Millennium holiday period and other key calendar dates, including February 29, 2000. Don Cruickshank, Action 2000's chairman, said: "The wait and see attitude of many businesses is a dangerous strategy and one that will lead to disaster". "The Millennium Bug is a major threat to all businesses. No matter how thorough the preparations, no one is absolutely safe. That is why it is essential that the unexpected is taken into consideration and businesses have robust Millennium contingency plans". "This is the only effective safety net to ensure business continuity for those who have not considered the bug. For others, it is the best protection to ensure that all the good work they have carried out does not go to waste." Action 2000 has not been slow to criticise software package manufacturers in this crucial run-up to the Millennium. Last month it stated that some of them were not providing sufficiently clear information about their products' Millennium compliance status. These manufacturers, it stated, are failing to explain clearly on their websites or elsewhere the apparently changing compliance status of certain critical business software packages. Action 2000 say this is a major worry. Not only have some of the packages concerned been previously categorised by the manufacturer as ready for the Millennium date change, but businesses are saying, that it is not always clear from the manufacturers' own guidance what steps should be taken by users to ensure that these products regain or maintain compliance. Those small to medium-sized businesses without IT expertise are encountering particular difficulty in discovering where to find and how to understand the information about these changes, leading them to believe that all is well when, in fact, they could be exposing themselves to danger. Cruickshank said: "I am concerned that businesses have been lulled into a false sense of security and that they are not sufficiently prompted by manufacturers to recheck their software packages to ensure that they have not regressed to a non-compliant status." |
| 1999-09-29 | IEEE använder ordet "kollaps" som beskrivning av vad som kan hända vid årsskiftet |
Länken går till ett pdf-dokument (du behöver Acrobat Reader).
Without a coordinated international effort to investigate, review, disseminate and promulgate practical, shareable, standardized problem descriptions and solutions, it is arguable that the current interconnective complexity of the global electronic infrastructure is at severe risk of collapse. Mig veterligt finns inte någon sådan global samordning. Inherent in the above is the fact that the Y2K crisis is only incidentally about the year 2000 or time in any here-and-now calendar sense. The implied instantaneousness of the term “Millennium Bomb,” all of the celebrated count-down clocks, the anxiety surrounding the “rollover” at midnight of December 1999 – and even the term “Y2K” itself – all relate to the relatively minor clock issues, more solvable problems of hardware and low-level software. These issues, although important, are dwarfed by the Y2K problems inherent in the vast accumulated base of data in files and databases all over the world that must be processed by application software, software that may not know how to resolve the ambiguity caused by the missing century digits in year representations in that data. Those issues are rooted in many programs needing to compute on data that has at least two dates, each on a different side of the 1999/2000 boundary. This is true whether it is now in 1999 and the program must deal with another date in or beyond 2000, or it is now in or beyond 2000 and the program must also deal with another date back in the 1900s; it is true regardless of when now is. . . . For every non-PC computer clock involved, there are millions of data records. For the one-time rollover of system clocks there are astronomically countless times data records with potentially ambiguous century representations must be properly processed. While the rollover effect will happen in a moment and dissipate relatively quickly, data processing errors are happening and accelerating now and will go on for years after the rollover. Impacts may peak in the early weeks and months of 2000, when “today’s date” is on the new side of the boundary, but they are not by any means confined to that period. |
| 1999-09-29 | Problem? Yep! |
JBA är ett mjukvaruföretag med 2700 anställda och 4000 kunder. Det är alltså inget hobbyföretag. Nyligen presenterade de på sin Website ett antal artiklar om inbäddade system. En av dessa artiklar visar (om vad som framkommer stämmer) att problemet med inbäddade system är enormt mycket större än vad de flesta människor tycks tro.
The issues related to the Year 2000 and embedded systems are not much different than the issues faced in the Information Technology (IT) arena. Just as there are many lines of code that are at risk in the software arena, there are many programs at risk in the embedded arena. The magnitude of the issue is significantly different. There are approximately 50 billion chips in the world today. Of those, approximately 5 billion are in computers as we know them, from mainframes down to PCs. The other 45 billion chips are in embedded systems throughout the world. If we assume the same problem magnitude with embedded systems as we have discovered in the software world then between five and seven percent of the embedded systems will have a year 2000 problem. This means between 2.25 billion and 3.15 billion embedded systems will have a year 2000 problem. This number alone is staggering. Beyond the sheer number of potential problem systems is the fact that we don’t know where all the embedded systems are, or they are located where we cannot reach them. Embedded systems can be found in everything from your telephone and VCR through commercial building environmental and energy management and control systems to transatlantic cables and satellites. It is not a simple task to get to a satellite and repair or replace the embedded systems (question? Does the Hubble telescope have any date sensitive systems onboard?). Add to this the fact that some of these embedded systems are legacy systems for which there is no supporting manufacturer. These systems will require replacement at a potential staggering cost. Additional issues related to embedded systems, just as with IT systems, are the number of dates that must be supported by the embedded system. It is not just midnight, December 31, 1999 that is a problem. Consider February 29, 2000. This is a special case leap year for date processing. This is the leap year that is divisible by both four and 400, making the Year 2000 a leap year. Embedded systems must correctly transition from February 28, 2000 to February 29, 2000 and then correctly transition to March 1, 2000. Consider the following. Does the embedded system use dates over time? Does the thermal sensor in the exhaust stack of a coal-fired electrical power generation plant sense the temperature and compare it to previous temperatures? Does this function require a calendar to track the rise and fall of heat in the exhaust stack over time? Will the century date change affect the capability to perform this function? Ask these questions of the many different functions provided by embedded systems. The telecommunications industry must be sensitive to these issues in order to ensure correct billing across the various Y2K dates of interest. So should the banking and other financial institutions that uses date sensitive equipment to calculate interest on monies flowing around the world. Year 2000 and embedded systems can, and most likely will, have a major impact on the world-wide effort to successfully address and retire the coming century date change. The more technologically advanced the enterprise, whether it be a business or a government, the more likely there will be a year 2000 embedded systems impact. |
| 1999-09-28 | Amerikanska småföretag kommer att sänka den amerikanska ekonomin (om inte USA:s handelspartners hinner före) |
14,5 miljoner småföretag i USA sysselsätter mer än 50% av USA:s arbetskraft, står för mer hälften av USA:s samlade produktion av varor och tjänster och är den "sektor" i den amerikanska ekonomin där de flesta nya jobb skapas. Småföretag, dvs företag med 10-199 anställda, ligger efter i förberedelserna inför övergången till år 2000. I många fall har de inte ens tagit hotet på allvar och påbörjat nödvändiga åtgärder. Det här är från TechWeb.
How's this for irony: The fastest-growing market segment-the small-business arena-is also the slowest to adopt Y2K remediation plans. According to published reports, 14.5 million American small-business owners employ more than 50 percent of the private workforce, generate more than half of the nation's gross domestic product and are the principal source of new jobs in the U.S. economy. With growth like that, you'd think that these entrepreneurs would be attuned to the need to prepare for the turn of the century. But that's not so. "Most people really don't believe there's a problem," says Jerry Duffy, owner of Abel Computer Repair, a San Carlos, Calif.-based reseller. "They think it's sort of a scam." Bill Salagovic, president of Dimensional Data Co. in Pueblo, Colo., agrees: "I see a lot of small businesses taking a wait-and-see attitude. Many are saying, 'I'll just pull out the plug' or, 'It's not going to be as bad as everybody says.'" Those businesses are not isolated. A recent study by the National Federation of Independent Business reports that 40 percent of small businesses in the United States are not prepared for Y2K. The study also indicates that one-third of all U.S. small businesses plan to do nothing to prepare for the Y2K computer glitch. This is not solely an American attitude. More than a quarter of Europe's 1.1 million small businesses are not ready for potential Y2K computer problems, according to a study by research firm Banner Corp. In the survey of information technology managers at 1,035 companies, 26 percent said they were not ready for Y2K. The survey, involving employers from eight countries of companies with 10 to 99 employees, found that 72 percent believe the millennium bug will only cause minor disruption. Duffy is all too familiar with the denial stage of the potential impact of the millennium malfunction. While he advertises that he is a Y2K consultant, only 20 percent of his clients have secured that part of his expertise. As for the remaining 80 percent, he says they aren't even making an effort to fix the problem. "What you're watching is a train wreck in slow motion," Duffy says. |
| 1999-09-28 | Är det här verkligen positiva nyheter? |
"Åtta av tio företag uppger att de inte upplever någon väsentlig affärsrisk på grund av systemproblem". Vänd på det. Två av tio amerikanska företag anser att de upplever väsentlig affärsrisk på grund av systemproblem inför år 2000. Är det bra??? Två av tio! 20 procent! Det blir en väldans massa företag som hamnar i problem!!! Även om "bara" 10 procent, eller 5 procent, eller 2 procent av alla hamnar i svårigheter, blir effekterna på den globala ekonomin enorma. Vad är det för journalister vi har egentligen? Det här är från IDG.
2000-optimism i USA Majoriteten av amerikanska företag anser sig nu 2000-säkra, visar en undersökning från Cap Gemini. De flesta amerikanska företag är redo för 2000-skiftet och är klara börja med andra projekt, visar rapporten 100 Days to Go från Cap Gemini och Rubin Systems. Åtta av tio företag uppger att de inte upplever någon väsentlig affärsrisk på grund av systemproblem. Detta trots att 82 procent av alla företag redan har upplevt 2000-problem, en siffra som ökat med sju procentenheter jämfört med augusti i år. |
| 1999-09-28 | Ännu en krönika om småbolagen |
Det här är från Gold-Eagle.
Perhaps Y2k's scale of failure overwhelms people and prevents them from seeing the implications of widespread systemic failure. We are talking failures, mutual plural, and not failure, singular. So the blissfully ignorant SME buys a new computer or piece of software and thinks it has solved its Y2k problem. The hard questions: will you have electrical, phone or banking services are left unasked. Can you pay your employees and if not, will they show up for work? What about your supply chain? What about your distribution system? Well, what about them? Who cares if you have a fancy new PC with a new piece of software on it, if civil order has broken down and there is gasoline rationing? . . . . SMEs haven't taken into account Y2k is a series of failures over an extended period of time. Y2k failures have been happening all thorough 1999 and will continue right on into 2001. To assume your SME will not have a Y2k failure, but if it does it will happen on January 3rd, is not reasonable. You may or may not even recognize your SME has a problem until your January or February billing cycle is corrupted by bad data. There are numerous 286, 386 and 486 Personal Computers in daily use at SMEs. For instance, my dentist uses a 286 and a knockoff printer to print patient receipts and bills. No bill; no payment. Earth to SME. Am I getting through to you? A brief history lesson for those of you who have no idea what I'm talking about. 286's are 1979 technology, 386's are 1986 technology, and 486's are 1990 technology as is their software, unless updated. The Pentium didn't achieve market dominance until late 1995 and even many of them, the 75, 100, 120, aren't Y2k compliant. . . . |
| 1999-09-28 | Bra krönika |
Det verkar som om det går trögt även för storföretagen. Och myndigheterna.
Let's say Johnny had told Mom and Dad he was getting A's and B's on his report card: they would be mighty disappointed (to say the least) to discover some C's and D's, too. He hadn't said there weren't any C's and D's, just that there were A's and B's — though he knew very well they would find out the truth. Similarly, a populace that is told almost nothing but good news about Y2K is going to be mighty disappointed (to say the least) if it turns out that they have to face the consequences of the bad news they had not been told. . . . |
| 1999-09-26 | Asiatisk telekommunikation oförberedd inför årsskiftet |
Endast 25% av de undersökta telekomleverantörerna i Asien bedöms vara klara inför år 2000. En mycket låg siffra med tanke på vad som står på spel. Telekommunikationer är vitala delar för exempelvis finanssektorn.
Asia Pacific Telcos Unprepared For Y2K Says Meta Group The Meta Group has surveyed 55 telecom providers servicing the Asia Pacific region and found that only 25 percent reported full Y2K compliance. A further 50 percent were highly confident of compliance by the fourth quarter of this year, a rate Meta decries as "surprisingly low for a critical service." In developed countries such as Japan and Australia, Q4 compliance rated at 65 percent. "Use of global service providers ... will not insulate users - in-country service provision is often still constrained to local carriers," warns Meta. Organizations are counseled to "immediately investigate their Asia Pacific network service providers' Y2K status as part of overall supply chain certification, and should plan for failure of telecom service, especially data, in less-developed countries." |
| 1999-09-25 | Kraftförsörjningen i Asien - en mycket oviss fråga |
Många av kraftverken i Asien är i mindre bra kondition. Så kommer då y2k att göra någon skillnad? Svaret är ja, men den här rapporten valsar runt det uppenbara: dålig programmering är permanent. Det kan inte lösas med några enkla patchar. Y2k är något unikt. Det är inte bara ytterligare ett tillfälligt avbrott. Det är ett programmerat avbrott. Artikeln tydliggör att en hel del system inte har reparerats. Hur många? Det beror på vem du frågar. Varje nation som utpekas som sårbar har undantagslöst förvarats av någon som representerar landet eller systemet genom att säga att man visst är redo för år 2000. All data är självrapporterad. "Inget problem!" Och varje nations invånare tror på de positiva, självrapporterade uppskattningarna. Alla är "i princip" klara. "Det är bara att fråga nån som vet, så får du det bekräftat". Det finns inga bevis. Det behöver inte finnas några bevis. Alla VILL tro på de goda nyheterna. Vem som helst borde kunna lista ut att någon någonstans i beslutsför position ljuger. Varje vapen bör hanteras som laddat innan det har kontrollerats. Detsamma gäller för datorsystem. "A system is y2k-guilty until proven innocent". Självrapporterade försäkringar är inga bevis. Långtifrån alla system har testats. Långtifrån alla system kommer att testas. Men alla nyheter är goda om man frågar företagets eller myndighetens PR-ansvarige. Det finns ingen skeptisism. Ingen ifrågasätter. Det är snart oktober, 1999, och allmänheten tror fortfarande på PR-människorna. Länken går till en Reuters-nyhet. |
| 1999-09-25 | Bakslag för Kenya | I jakten på att åtgärda landets datorsystem inför årsskiftet visar det sig att man beställt 400 icke 2000-säkrade system... Inte bra. |
| 1999-09-25 | Ett enastående exempel på selektiv journalistik | Washington Post rapporterade om senatorerna Dodds och Bennetts rapport inför år 2000. Maken till selektiv journalistik får man leta efter. Rapporten från Senatens y2k-kommitté var ingalunda entydigt positiv. Varför väljer då Washington Post (som tidigare faktiskt haft en bra ifrågasättande attityd i y2k-frågan) att utelämna i stort sett samtliga formuleringar i rapporten som var negativa? Otroligt. Här är ett exempel på mer objektiv rapportering av Senatens rapport. |
| 1999-09-25 | Anledningar till att många företag anser att ett helt års tester (efter reparationer) är nödvändigt | En lekman skulle kunna anta att tester av system inför y2k är en enkel procedur. Men så är det inte. |
| 1999-09-22 | Taskforce 2000: "Brittiska regeringen har inte fattat" |
Robin Guenier, VD i brittiska Taskforce 2000, kritiserar den brittiska regeringen och det brittiska näringslivet för att inte riktigt förstått y2k-problemet och att de inte gjort tillräckligt för att förbereda sig inför årsskiftet.
With only 100 days to go until the millennium date change, which threatens computers all over the world, an independent watchdog says the Government must be blamed for any failures. Taskforce 2000, which has constantly disagreed with many of the statements of readiness made by the Government-funded Action 2000, believes the UK Government and business still "do not really understand the problem". The Government has rejected the claims and says the UK is among the "front rank" in the world in terms of readiness. Executive director of Taskforce 2000 Robin Guenier said: "We have fallen behind and Government must take much of the blame. "It has constantly sent out confused, even contrary, messages both trivialising and over dramatising the issue. "With such leadership, how are the rest of us supposed to take Y2K seriously?" Although the Government was unable to give assurances about other countries, it said the UK's own preparations were almost complete. The statement added: "Critical services in the UK should not be affected. There may be difficulties in doing business with other countries or even communicating with them in some cases. We can only wait and see." Taskforce 2000 urged companies and Government to re-think their contingency planning as it called what was in place "lightweight and untested". It said the main trouble would not be on the millennium date change itself but afterwards, with a number of problems accumulating over the first few months of 2000. |
| 1999-09-22 | Reuters/Amerikanska Senaten: "Y2K kommer troligen utlösa nedgång i den globala ekonomin" |
Den här artikeln på Yahoo News kräver ingen ytterligare kommentar från min sida.
Y2K may trigger downturn - U.S. Senate panel
WASHINGTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Year 2000 computer glitch is likely to rock world trade and may end more than eight straight years of U.S. economic growth, a special Senate panel studying the problem said on Wednesday. In a report marking 100 days left to the year change, the bipartisan Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem said it was also ``extremely concerned'' about Y2K's impact on longer-term U.S. national security and strategic interests. ``Severe long- and short-term disruptions to supply chains are likely to occur'' as a result of Y2K-related system failures, the panel said in its 288-page final report. ``Such disruptions may cause a low-to-moderate downturn in the economy, particularly in industries that depend on foreign suppliers,'' it said. The U.S. economy, a locomotive for the world, has been expanding since March 1991. The committee listed its greatest concerns as China, Russia, and Italy plus a handful of U.S. oil suppliers: Venezuela, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Colombia and Kuwait. ``Several important U.S. trading partners are severely behind in addressing the Y2K problem ... and are not likely to avoid significant disruptions,'' the report said. Other countries' Y2K-related problems may wash up on U.S. shores ``in the form of recession, lost jobs or requests for international assistance,'' it said. At issue is the coding glitch that could cause computers to mistake 2000 for 1900 starting Jan. 1. Unless fixed, this could play havoc with everything from cash machines to telephones to power grids. GLOBAL RECESSION Committee Chairman Robert Bennett, a Utah Republican, said through a spokesman that he foresaw a ``strong possibility for a slight economic downturn'' worldwide and a ``slight possibility'' of a global recession due to Y2K-related disruptions. But John Koskinen, President Bill Clinton's chief adviser on Y2K, said he did not expect Y2K to have a ``significant'' impact on the U.S. economy, citing what he called a consensus of forecasters. At worst, Y2K-related tangles might shave one or two tenths of a percentage point off U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2000, Koskinen said in a telephone interview with Reuters. The committee, which has held about 30 hearings and heard testimony from more than 150 witnesses, said it had lingering fears about U.S. health care, small business and local government preparedness. In addition, it said local and regional power outages remained a ``distinct possibility'' in some parts of the United States. Both Koskinen and the chief trade group for U.S. electricity suppliers disputed this assessment. All available data suggest any Y2K-related outages ``will be highly localized and of short duration,'' said John Castagna of the Edison Electric Institute, which represents most major electricity suppliers. TRAP DOORS The panel also voiced fears about possible ``trap doors'' that could have been crafted secretly into the millions of lines of U.S. computer codes overhauled overseas. It said the drive to fix the code might have opened the door to ``serious long-term risks to the nation's security and information superiority.'' If a ``trap door'' were inserted into key network software, for instance, an adversary could gain access for years without anyone being the wiser, the panel said. ``It is this long-term unnoticeable access that enables key information to be lifted without a trace,'' the report said. The panel said it was unable to determine the scope of likely Y2K disruptions. ``Nonetheless, disruptions will occur (in the United States) and in some cases those disruptions will be significant,'' it said. ``The international situation will certainly be more tumultuous.'' ITALY CITED AS CONCERN The panel cited Italy as a particular concern, partly because of the throngs expected to converge on the Vatican to mark the 2,000th anniversary of the birth of Christ. Specific areas of concern are water, electric utilities, transportation, airports and, ``appearing weakest,'' Y2K preparation of hospital equipment, the report said. The panel faulted an initial series of State Department country-by-country Y2K summaries as ``rather general, with little to distinguish one country from another.'' The State Department summaries were released on Sept. 14 after two sets of government-to-government consultations. The panel said all available assessments indicated a relatively high probability of Y2K-related failures in key sectors in former Soviet bloc countries. Most at risk were telecommunications, transportation and energy sectors. Russia was likely to experience a month of disruptions in financial markets, two months for utilities and health care and up to three months of turmoil in transport and communications, the panel cited one assessment as saying. The committee ``generally'' agrees with that assessment, made in June by the Gartner Group, a Stamford, Connecticut, information technology consulting firm, said Don Meyer, a committee spokesman. China appears to be very poorly prepared as well, the panel said. ``Because of improper planning, insufficient resources and a very late start ... the committee believes that a substantial portion of Chinese companies and the government will experience several failures,'' it said. China may also be haunted because as much as 95 percent of its software ``is thought to be pirated,'' the committee said. ``This could prevent Chinese companies from receiving technical support from suppliers.'' Här finns rapporten i sin helhet. |
| 1999-09-21 | Regeringen sticker huvudet i sanden |
Det här är från Computer Sweden. Få tror väl att någon bankpanik startar på grund av fel i de svenska bankernas datorsystem. Men bankpanik kan starta av andra skäl. Skäl som ligger utom bankernas kontroll. Bankerna ingår i ett system. Ett globalt system. Bankerna är beroende av att andra sektorer inom ekonomin fungerar. Går det verkligen att garantera? Nej. Alltså är det för tidigt att avfärda problem i banksektorn. Men det är klart att regeringen inte vill veta av att det finns några problem. Den har ju alldeles nyligen släppt en budgetproposition som bygger på en närmast fullständigt perfekt ekonomi i stark tillväxt. Inte kan väl detta luftslott raseras av några bortglömda siffror i årtalsangivelser? Eller?
Regeringen avdramatiserar 2000-panik i banksektorn (1999-09-21 12:12)
Monica Green frågade regeringen om vad den gör för att förhindra att panik uppstår inför millennieskiftet, till exempel genom att folk tar ut sina pengar. Hon hänvisar till undersökningar gjorda av analysföretaget Gartner Group som visar att 50 procent av 6 000 personer planerar att ta ut pengar för att klara tre månader efter millennieskiftet och att svenska undersökningar visar att 12 procent kan tänkas ta ut sina sparpengar, vilket motsvarar 54 miljarder kronor. Lugn Ringholm
En annan att Finansinspektionen, FIs, rapporter visar att risken för allvarliga finansiella störningar är liten. Och en tredje att Riksbanken, FI och finansiella företag bildat ett 2000-råd som ska samordna övergripande åtgärder inför övergången samtidigt som Riksbanken har bunkrat upp med mer pengar. Dessutom rör 2000-delegationens kampanjer alla områden, även banksektorn. |
| 1999-09-21 | IBM uppmanar sina anställda att förebereda sig på svårigheter med anledning av årsskiftet |
Det här är från kanadensiska Financial Post. Om IBM räknar med problem, bör man inte oroa sig då? Om ett av världens största företag anser att det finns skäl att dess anställda förbereder sig på svårigheter efter årsskiftet så bör det rimligen också finnas skäl att samtliga världsmedborgare följer IBM:s uppmaning. I så fall blir det panik INFÖR årsskiftet om alla ska börja hamstra varor och förnödenheter.
IBM, Red Cross suggest safeguards for New Year's
A recent internal publication issued by International Business Machines Corp. focused on the Y2K problem, advises employees around the world to make personal contingency plans and be prepared on personal finances, including putting aside some extra cash. The special 1999 issue of IBM's Think magazine, headlined simply "Understanding Y2K," also advises workers to be flexible about vacation plans and to be prepared for unusually heavy workloads in the fourth quarter of 1999 and first quarter of 2000. "In planning for the transition to 2000, nothing is being taken for granted, and few scenarios are too far-fetched," it warns. For personal living preparations, it largely relies on the recommendations of the American Red Cross, available on the Internet at www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/y2k.html. "Stock non-perishable foods, water and medications you use regularly," the IBM publication says. "Have some extra cash on hand; fill your gas tank a day or so before New Year's Eve; and have blankets, gloves, flashlights and extra batteries on hand in case of power failures." |
| 1999-09-21 | Bank of England i panik? |
2,5 biljoner pund. Så mycket extra valuta skall Bank of England se till att det finns i omlopp före årsskiftet. Ifall det blir bankpanik. Fast inte i sedlar och mynt. Ökningen av penningmängden blir i form av digitala siffror. Precis som om det skulle hjälpa OM det blir bankpanik. Vad allmänheten då efterfrågar är sk "fiat money", dvs sedlar och mynt.
THE Bank of England said yesterday that it will make available up to £2,500 billion to the banking system in order to tide it over the Millennium holiday. The vast sum will be on tap via the repo market, which is being expanded to ensure there is no shortage of funds over the new year. A repo allows banks to deposit securities at the Bank of England in return for short-term loans. The Bank of England can lend money placed in its vaults by the Government and, in emergencies, can itself borrow from other central banks. |
| 1999-09-21 | Oron för bankpanik sprider sig bland banker i Texas |
Det här är från Dallas Business Journal.
While the banking lobbyists are out there telling the public that the coming Y2K crisis is a nonevent for financial institutions, the banks themselves are hunkering down for Dec. 31. The banks don't like to talk about it. Indeed, I couldn't find anyone who would go on the record. But corporate banks and independent banks alike are quietly telling their staff to cancel any vacation plans for mid-December through mid-January. Now, don't panic. It's not Y2K they're concerned about. It's you. "Everyone is convinced that the Y2K stuff is under control," one loan officer, who asked not to be identified, told me recently. "What they're worried about is a run on the bank." In other words: They have nothing to fear but fear itself. |
| 1999-09-21 | "Stäng ner världens alla kärnkraftverk" |
Det här är från amerikanska ABC News. Som en försäkring mot att ingen härdsmälta skall inträffa vid övergången till år 2000 kräver miljöaktivister att samtliga kärnkraftsreaktorer stängs av före årsskiftet. Även om risken är liten att någonolycka inträffar, är risken ändå högre än normalt vid årsskiftet. Som en försäkring bör samtliga kärnkraftsreaktorer stängas ner, anser man. Stackars Frankrike i så fall. Och stackars Ukraina, Litauen, Ryssland, Vitryssland, Japan, Sverige etc. som alla är beroende av kärnkraften...
W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 16 — Environmentalists and arms control activists call it a modest proposal—a kind of Year 2000 insurance policy for the world. Power down the 433 nuclear reactors worldwide. De-alert the 5,000 nuclear-tipped missiles that the United States and Russia keep on hair-trigger status. In a word, observe a year-end, 48-hour atomic “holiday” to avoid the remote possibility of nuclear disaster during the technology-challenging year 2000 rollover. “It could be a matter of life and death,” said Yumi Kikuchi, coordinator of a growing international grassroots campaign for a “World Atomic Safety Holiday, or Y2K WASH. Speaking at a news conference on Thursday, Kikuchi and fellow activists ticked off reasons for a “managed phase-down” of reactors to standby, to be completed by Dec. 30. “Rather than risk potentially catastrophic malfunctions with nuclear weapons and at nuclear facilities because of the Y2K problem, just give them the weekend off,” said Michael Mariotte, executive director of Nuclear Information and Resource Service, a watchdog group in Washington. ...“It’s a no-brainer,” added John Steinbach, co-author of Deadly Nuclear Radiation Hazards USA. “It’s like insurance.” ...“Ukraine, Russia, Japan, China, India—these are all countries that may face severe Y2K difficulties,” said Mariotte, who faults the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Y2K readiness standards for plant operators here. |
| 1999-09-20 | Russia Today: Stora problem väntar för rysk naturgasutvinning- och transportering |
Sep 18, 1999 -- (Reuters) Millennium bug problems in the energy industry have the potential to disrupt Russian gas supply and the gas oil futures market shows evidence of worries over Russian deliveries, a leading oil analyst said on Friday.
Peter Gignoux, of Salomon Smith Barney, told a conference on world oil prices that gas monopoly Gazprom might face problems in supplying domestic and foreign customers. U.S. intelligence officials have identified Gazprom's natural gas pipeline network as being susceptible to potential Y2K outages, he said. Gazprom, which has assets including a quarter of the world's natural gas, supplies about five percent of Western European consumption so its impact there is expected to be small. Much more vulnerable is Russia itself, which relies on Gazprom for 50 percent of its total energy requirements and Eastern Europe, which gets 15 percent of its needs from the company. Among the potential problems U.S. officials had identified were Soviet-era mainframe computers used in Gazprom's pipeline operations centers, as well as satellite ground stations used to transfer data from gas-producing regions to the gas company's headquarters. Unattended equipment stations in Siberia might also be vulnerable to disruptions, as might 600 compressor stations which pump gas through the pipeline network. "Clearly not enough money has been spent in certain areas," Gignoux said. He quoted the Russian military as saying in March this year that it had less than $4 million to tackle the computer bug in its strategic nuclear forces. "By comparison, my firm has budgeted and will have spent some $950 million for Y2K preparation," he said. The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA), said in July it did not think Russian energy supplies would face major disruptions and that while some Russian energy firms were slow in starting Y2K preparations they were catching up. Gazprom officials said earlier this year they were working to avoid falling prey to the bug and confident activities would not suffer from the transition to the year 2000. Gignoux said the European gas oil futures market showed evidence that players were taking positions on the possibility of disruption to deliveries of Russian gas oil at the end of the year. |
| 1999-09-20 | Unisys: 8 miljoner datasystem kommer att krascha |
Uppskattningsvis 8 miljoner datasystem kommer att krascha under januari, 2000, världen över. Risken är stor att minst ett av dem tillhör just DITT företags distributions- eller produktionskedja. DIN verksamhet kommer att påverkas. Vad ska du göra åt det? Beredskapsplanering är redan ett uttjatat ord i samband med y2k, men det är precis vad det handlar om. Överlevnad.
When the clock strikes midnight January 1, millions of systems won't be ready. If even one of those systems is yours--or one of your partners'--you'll need a plan in place ... With the new millennium only months away, most organizations have their year 2000 projects well under way, and many are already engaged in final testing of renovated systems. But that doesn't mean every system affected by the year 2000 will have been identified and made ready. In fact, an estimated 8 million systems will not be fixed in time. And it's very likely one of those systems will belong to your organization--or to a key supplier, partner or customer. That could have a serious impact on your ability to conduct business. ...Although organizations are racing to ensure year 2000 compliance of their technology, they remain vulnerable to disruption due to year 2000 problems. Some things simply will be overlooked or not completed on time. And the risk of failure is not limited to the organization's internal IT systems: Most organizations depend on information, supplies and services from external partners. Because there are many facets of year 2000 beyond an organization's control, it's most likely a year 2000 disruption will be caused by an external source rather than an internal one. If there's a single weak link in the chain of critical dependencies, even the most successful year 2000 program will fail to protect against major disruption of business operations. |
| 1999-09-20 | "Vi befinner oss redan i en bear market" |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A curious thing has happened. The bull market died in the spring of 1998 but Wall Street still hasn't been told -- at least that's what some experts say. The headline-grabbing stock market indices -- the Dow Jones industrials, Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq composite -- may be cruising at record highs, but the truth is that many stocks have not kept up. In fact, a big number of stocks are below the highs made in the rip-roaring days of the 1997 and 1998 bull market. "The overall market has been in a bear market since April 1998. Yes, that is right -- 1998," said Don Hays, chief investment strategist for Wheat First Union in Richmond, Va. It's a smoke-and-mirrors market. "With only four technology stocks making up 25 percent of the weighting of the Nasdaq and the media only concentrating on the indices, the 'Stealth Bear Market' is being ignored," he said. "What do you think the headlines would be saying if the major indices were 19.7 percent under the mid-April 1998 highs?" he asked. The experts backed up their words with some strong stuff. Ned Davis Research in Venice, Fla., says the average stock in its 7,736-stock data base has fallen nearly 20 percent since April 1998 -- a virtual bear market for a large number of stocks. There's more. Följ länken och läs vidare. |
| 1999-09-20 | Också IMF ifrågasätter Greenspan |
LONDON (CNNfn) - The International Monetary Fund will launch a damning attack on the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan later this week for his slow response to the dangers of economic overheating, according to a newspaper report.
At the same time, the fund's economists will urge central banks to follow the British example of paying more attention to asset prices in reaching decisions on setting interest rates, according to the U.K. newspaper The Daily Telegraph. The IMF will deliver its damning verdict on Greenspan's management of the U.S. economy in its biannual World Economic Outlook, due to be published Wednesday. The fund's analysts are apparently frustrated at the Fed's failure to match Greenspan's words with action. Greenspan has cautioned against overvaluations of stocks on Wall Street but the Fed's Open Market Committee has only raised interest rates by half a percentage point in recent months. The report will call for further, early U.S. rate rises to help cool the economy down and prevent a hard landing, according to The Telegraph. |
| 1999-09-20 | Yourdon skriver brev till Greenspan | I förra veckan höll Federal Reserves ordförande Alan Greenspan ett tal inför Kongressen som bl a berörde y2k-frågan. Greenspan är inte orolig, åtminstone inte officiellt. (Vad skulle han förresten säga? Att han ÄR orolig? Och starta bankpanik på egen hand?) Programmeraren och författaren Ed Yourdon (inte Yardeni!) ifrågasätter Greenspans tal. |
| 1999-09-17 | Amerikanska kraftsektorn vilseleder allmänheten, säger professor |
Enligt egen utsago skulle kraftsektorn i USA ha genomfört ett 2000-test i samband med datumet 9/9/99. Men detta "test" var inget test i den bemärkelsen att någon teknik testades. Fundera vidare över professorns prediktion att 7% av alla företag kommer att upphöra med sin verksamhet efter årsskiftet på grund av y2k. Ett ganska hårt slag mot den globala ekonomin i så fall... Men börsen står där den står...
``These listed power companies,'' Lefkon continues, ``say they're 'essentially completed,' or have finished fixing some systems they feel are important, or -- laughable -- have 'not found anything that would prevent' delivering power.'' That category -- ``not found anything'' -- is a Lefkon favorite because it generally indicates passivity, not actively and aggressively finding all automated systems and date-testing them thoroughly. It's why for four years he's publicly predicted 7% of all firms will cease operation next January due to Y2K. ``Y2K is just like Termite Infestation,'' he explains. If you aren't willing to spend time, money and effort to investigate, you won't find anything you dislike. And 'de-nial' ain't just a river in Egypt.`` Prof. Lefkon attributes some denial to last April Ninth's well-publicized Power Industry Y2K test. ''In the instruction booklet for that one, companies were explicitly asked to focus on exercising automated systems they were sure would pass the test.`` He feels the resulting happy press coverage misled the American public into a false sense of security, and that tonight's activity will, too, being not a Year 2000 test but a New Year's Party rehearsal. He urges consumers to contact directly their power companies and get genuine information with hard facts about steps they're taking to find, fix and date-test their automated systems. ``Tonight's Power Industry event misleads consumers, but I'm not saying it's totally without merit. Any industry or big enterprise that's actually successfully tested all surviving automated systems, should schedule its own New Year's Eve Party and pre-rehearse that Manual Contingency Plan repeatedly, not just once four months in advance,'' notes the Professor. ``A hospital, for instance, should begin by having people go around slapping 'this does not work' tags on various infusion pumps, heating systems, etc. My teams have prepared such completely scripted Y2K Manual Contingency Plans for healthcare, banking, government, manufacturing and sales. It never takes us more than a week to produce the plan, refine it, and identify those who must attend that critically important New Year's Eve party.'' Vilseleds vi här i Sverige också? |
| 1999-09-17 | 1/4 av kineser har inte hört talas om y2k-problemet |
Det här är från South China Morning Post.
At least one in four urban dwellers on the mainland have no idea what the millennium bug is, according to a survey published yesterday. The findings come a day after a travel warning issued by the British Foreign Office predicted problems in China's hospitals over New Year. Only 63 per cent of those polled in a recent survey conducted by the Horizon Market Research Corporation could provide a clear definition of the bug. About eight per cent of those polled said they had some rough idea of the cause and potentially harmful effects of the problem, but could not be specific. Others came up with definitions of the Y2K problem that ranged from viruses, worms and fossils to corrupt officials. |
| 1999-09-16 | Situationen för småföretagen betydligt värre än 2000-delegationen väntat sig |
Företag med mellan 10 och 199 anställda hamnar under kategorin småföretag. Inse att det är hög tid att börja känna oro inför årsskiftet. Småföretagen fyller sin funktion i de globala produktions- och distributionskedjorna. Det globala Just In Time-systemet är allvarligt hotat. Storföretagen riskerar att drabbas hårt av oförberedda småföretag. Det här är från Computer Sweden.
2000-delegationen orolig för småföretagen (1999-09-16 14:31)
- Näst intill 100 procent hade varit godtagbart, uppger kansliledningen. Värderar olika
I den undersökning som 2000-delegationen genomfört tillsammans med Överstyrelsen för civil beredskap, framkom också att småföretagarna fortfarande har olika värderingar av 2000-arbetet beroende på var i leveranskedjan de befinner sig. - Det är alltid andra som ska göra något och aldrig de själva, konstaterar Per-Erik Lundh, kanslichef på 2000-delegationen. |
| 1999-09-16 | Europeiska portföljförvaltare fortsätter ignorera y2k-faror |
Men det ändrar sig nog snart.
European investors are failing to pay attention to the potential hazards of the millennium bug, a new survey has revealed. Finance house Merrill Lynch claimed today continental European fund managers are unconcerned about the possible technical glitches or market upheavals caused by the bug. The survey of 76 fund managers, conducted by Gallup, found that many do not appear worried about the impact of the Y2K bug on key sectors of the equity markets that are potentially at risk of disruption, such as insurance, utilities and banks. A majority of those surveyed said they would not reduce exposure to these 'risky' sectors. Bryan Allworthy, European equity strategist at Merrill Lynch, London, said: "Much has been commented on about problems that could be caused by Y2K. However, investor solutions fall neatly into two camps, pre-emptive action by those that have looked into the issues ands non action by the rest." |
| 1999-09-16 | "Goda" nyheter från en myndighet som ansågs vara 2000-säkrad bara för några veckor sedan... |
WASHINGTON, Sept. 14 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The following was released today by the Center for Y2K and Society: The Medicaid systems in 33 states and the District of Columbia are presently at considerable risk of failure due to Y2K problems, according to newly released information by the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA). Medicaid, a joint federal-state government program, pays for the healthcare of over 34 million Americans at a cost of $160 billion annually. Medicaid pays for one out of every three births in the United States, and almost half of all nursing home revenue comes from Medicaid. Essential healthcare is at risk. According to HCFA, Medicaid is at high risk of failure in nine states: Alabama, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Tennessee, and Vermont. More than two dozen states are at medium risk of failure, including Texas, Connecticut, New York, Arkansas, Missouri and the District of Columbia. "The healthcare of 34 million Americans is at risk," said Norman Dean, executive director of the Center for Y2K and Society. Allt är tydligen inte så positivt som man vill påskina från officiellt håll... Och i Sverige lallar alla vidare. Ingen ifrågasätter. |
| 1999-09-16 |
"Lita inte på självrapporterade uppgifter"
Undvik att resa över millennieskiftet! |
Brittiska UD utfärdade häromdagen en varning om att undvika att resa till vissa länder kring millennieskiftet. Men dessa uppgifter går inte att lita på, säger Robin Guenier, VD i Taskforce 2000 (ung. motsvarigheten till 2000-delegationen i Sverige). Anledningen är att den brittiska regeringen bygger sina uppskattningar på självrapporterade uppgifter. Taskforce 2000 uppmanar i stället folk till att INTE RESA ALLS under en femveckorsperiod över årsskiftet, om det inte är ABSOLUT NÖDVÄNDIGT.
In a stark warning to would-be travelers over the end-of-Millennium period, the British Y2K agency has warned people against traveling for about five weeks over the New Year period. The warning comes from Taskforce 2000, the British government- sponsored Y2K agency, which says its advice follows publication by the Foreign Office and the US State Department of Y2K readiness gathered from around the world. Robin Guenier, Taskforce 2000's executive director, said that putting faith in information published by official bodies is a mistake. "The Foreign Office cannot offer real advice because it's impossible to get good information about Y2K. It would be unwise for travelers and businesspeople to base their plans on the Foreign Office's data," he said. Guenier said that, even in the UK, there are only assurances and not verifiable information about the UK infrastructure. "So how can we possibly be certain of self-certified information from elsewhere?" he said. As a result of this, Guenier said that Taskforce 2000 is advising people not to travel unless absolutely essential for a period of five weeks, beginning a week before the date change through to January 31, 2000. "We don't offer this advice lightly. Our concern is that the Y2K problem creates potential for extreme inconvenience and disruption around the world," he said. Guenier added that, against this backdrop, the risks and dangers that may be a consequence are, on balance, not worth taking. |
| 1999-09-14 | Japans premiärminister uppmanar till hamstring av mat inför årsskiftet |
TOKYO (Reuters) - Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi will recommend that all Japanese stockpile several days' worth of food and water as a precaution against any millennium bug problems as the country enters the New Year, Japanese media said Tuesday.
Obuchi is expected to make the appeal late in October, Kyodo news agency quoted government sources as saying. The government is also going to emphasize moves such as checking balances in bank accounts prior to December 31 this year, the sources were quoted as saying. So far the government has been cautious about making such recommendations out of fear it would spark public concern about the issue. |
| 1999-09-14 | Storbritannien utfärdar y2k-varning | Res inte till Ryssland, Ukraina eller Filippinerna kring millennieskiftet. Dessa länder finns på en lista som är sammanställd av den brittiska regeringen över länder som riskerar kaos-liknande infrastruktur. |
| 1999-09-14 | Karl Feilder: Japanska företagsledare vill inte höra talas om några y2k-problem |
"Blunda, så försvinner problemen." Ungefär sådan är kulturen uppenbarligen i Japan med avseende på y2k. Feilder menar att företagsledarna vägrar inse att Japans oförbereddhet hotar landets ekonomi och därmed också den globala ekonomin. Det här är från Computer Weekly.
. . . My point is that Japan is different. It's not just that they get all the best technology first, or that they have hotels like cocoons, oh no - Japan is fundamentally flipped. Nothing is what it seems and what seems to be comprehensible will unexpectedly invert itself just when you are getting the hang of it. There seems to be a real culture of compliance - and I don't mean the type of compliance you think I do. I mean a culture where speaking out against anything is just not done. You can imagine how popular I am when I explain Y2K to a society where technology has become the new opiate of the people. They just don't want to know. They attend seminars, sure, but as soon as I get onto any really controversial stuff (eg that their PC hardware manufacturers have not tested the Bios, but are gaily handing out compliance warranties like sheets of loo roll), they close their eyes and pretend to be somewhere else. . . . I was lucky enough to meet a very powerful group of Japanese business people who belong to a dinner club called something like "The Group to Rebuild Japan after WW2" - as you can see, translation is a bit of a problem, too. These people, who I was surprised to discover are not in their 70s or 80s, are the CEOs and presidents of some of the oldest and most respected companies in Japan. I was invited to explain this Y2K thing to them and my approach was simple. The Japanese are very strong on family, honour, and ethics. So I explained to them that it is my responsibility to tell people about the problem and, now that they know about it, they are responsible to the international community and to their families to get a grip on this problem and explain it at every opportunity. I gave them my fully translated "Unusual White Paper" that details Y2K, and asked them to think on this: "When Japan's lack of Y2K activity causes a worsened global recession next year, how are you going to look into the eyes of your children and grandchildren knowing that you did nothing. You owe it to them, and to children like them around the world - it is their future you are working for."... |
| 1999-09-13 | Flygbolagen varnas |
U.K. warns airlines on Y2K
LONDON (Bloomberg) - The U.K. threatened to ban airlines from flying within U.K airspace if it has any doubts about their preparations for the Year 2000 date change. ''In all cases, safety will be paramount and the department will not hesitate to withdraw permits if there are any safety doubts resulting from Y2K problems,'' said the U.K.'s Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. The statement follows a U.S. report that 35 countries hadn't met an Aug. 31 deadline to submit information on Y2K compliance to the International Civil Aviation Organization, which could result in the U.S. banning flights from those countries. IATA is predicting ''thousands, rather than tens of thousands,'' of planes will be in the air at the turn of the millennium. |
| 1999-09-13 | Saudi-Arabien ska vara värd för centralbanksmöte |
Det är mitten av September, 1999. Drygt tre månader kvar till tidernas mest fixa deadline. Saudi-Arabiens centralbank tycker det är dags att ha ett möte om y2k. Ett möte. Precis vad världens centralbanker behöver. Ytterligare ett möte är precis vad doktorn ordinerat. Mötet skall innebära ett utbyte av tankar och åsikter. Jajamänsan. Det kanske inte blir nåt utbyte av penningflöden efter årsskiftet, men det blir ett utbyte av tankar och åsikter. Det är det som är riktigt viktigt just nu.
The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) said Sunday it was to host a meeting on the millennium bug, bringing together regional states to identify areas where coordinated initiatives could be of benefit. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Zimbabwe were due to attend the meeting, SAMA said. "The purpose of this meeting is to broaden the understanding of Y2K efforts underway in these countries and exchange views," SAMA, the kingdom's central bank, said in a statement. The meeting is to be held in Jeddah on September 14 and 15. |
| 1999-09-11 | Europas naturgasförsörjning MYCKET allvarligt hotad |
Ryssland förser Europa med 1/3 av dess totala behov av naturgas. Experter menar att detta flöde löper stor risk att upphöra vid årsskiftet. De ekonomiska, miljömässiga och sociala konsekvenserna av en så allvarlig (och säkerligen långvarig) störning är enorma. Det här är skrämmande läsning. Ta dig tid att läsa hela artikeln. Nedan är bara två korta stycken.
If the Russian natural gas pipeline supplying both Eastern and Western Europe is interrupted, as Russian experts say it almost certainly will be, it will be a very difficult to start the gas flowing again with an uncertain electricity supply and sub-zero temperatures. Oil stops flowing at freezing temperatures which means that pipelines and refineries are at risk, even if there are relatively short power outages. In the US, which is far ahead of Russia in its preparations for the energy sector, "major" oil companies are reported adopting a fix on fail (FOF) policy on wells, pipelines and refineries. Another reported implication is that if the electricity fails, some nuclear plants may have difficulty cooling their cores if they are to be shut down, creating a real danger of accidental melt-downs. |
| 1999-09-11 | Ryssland ber om y2k-hjälp med sina kärnvapen |
Det här är från Computerworld.
WASHINGTON - Russia lags far behind in its efforts to fix potential year 2000 problems that threaten its command and control systems and nuclear warhead storage facilities, according to a Pentagon message that details high-level talks between the US Defense Department and the Russian Ministry of Defense. The message, sent late last month by the Defense Attache Office in the US Embassy in Moscow, discloses that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) has decided to bypass "due to time constraints" the laborious system-certification process that requires programmers to examine every line of code to determine whether it contains year 2000 bugs. Instead, the message said the Russians have decided to go directly to live testing of systems to locate year 2000 errors in the 100 systems they have identified as mission-critical. |
| 1999-09-09 | "Småföretag underskattar 2000-problemet" |
Det här är från IDG.
Länsteknikcentrum i Jönköping är oroligt över att småföretag inte tar tag i 2000-problemet. 25 studenter i fem regioner har varit ute hos 450 företag. Bilden är entydig. Projektet Y2K innebär att totalt 500 småföretag i hela Sverige före årets slut ska få besök av studenter från högskolor och universitet. Detta för att hjälpa småföretag att komma igång med 2000-arbetet. Projektet är ännu inte avslutat, men redan nu kan konstateras att småföretagen inte tar problemet på allvar. - Många mindre företag tror att 2000-problemet bara handlar om själva datorerna. Men de glömmer, eller känner inte ens till, problemet med till exempel inbäddade system, säger Anna Sahlin, projektledare för Y2K vid Länsteknikcentrum i Jönköping. Högtryck
Aktiviteten med företagsbesök är idag så gott som avslutad och i stället inleds seminarier runtom Sverige. Men det finns fortfarande hopp för företag som är i akut behov av hjälp. - Vi kommer ha ett par studenter som kan åka ut även i höst, säger Anna Sahlin. Informationen är kostnadsfri. I sin tur förbinder sig företaget att utvärdera det egna 2000-arbetet. Företagens information lagras i en databas, där det från och med slutet av september ska gå att få fram vilka 2000-problem som är vanligast i olika branscher. Beroende av andra
- Småföretagen är ganska bra på att gå igenom vanliga data- och administrativa system samt telefonväxlar. Men de glömmer ofta beroendet av andras system, till exempel kunders eller leverantörers. Snabbt åtgärdat
- Att gå igenom ett litet företag behöver inte ta mer än en dag. Om det till exempel visar sig att det administrativa systemet behöver bytas ut är det bara att gå till butiken och köpa ett nytt, säger han. |
| 1999-09-09 | IMF oroas över stigande USA-börs |
WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - A drop in high-flying U.S. stock prices could hit markets around the world, but it is hard to say how far and how fast the impact could spread, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
The IMF's International Capital Markets report, its annual review of prospects for markets, banks and financial systems, said a fall in U.S. share prices could hurt other countries. It warned of risks to currencies and to banking systems and said current account imbalances between Europe and the United States could put pressure on the dollar in the medium term. ``The general expectation is that exchange rates could adjust in an orderly fashion, but there is a risk they will not,'' said Gary Schinasi, one of the authors of the report. He told a news conference it was not clear whether a stock market correction was inevitable. But the report said U.S. shares were vulnerable to sharply higher interest rates, weak earnings growth or worsening investor sentiment. ``The remarkably high level of valuations in the U.S. equity market, reached after a nearly unprecedented period of gains, poses a risk in global financial markets,'' the report said. ``Although a correction in the U.S. market might have domestic origins, it could well have international consequences.'' The IMF has long expressed concern about high U.S. share prices, but this was its bluntest warning to date about the possible impact of a price correction in other countries. The IMF's report is the first in a string of documents due for release before and during the IMF's annual meetings later this month. The meetings will include a gathering of finance ministers and central bank chiefs from the Group of Seven industrialized countries and a separate meeting of the 24 finance ministers making up the IMF's policy-making Interim Committee. Monetary sources said they expected British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown to be the next chairman of the committee, replacing Italy's Carlo Azeglio Ciampi. Y2K PROBLEMS MAY HAVE ADVERSE IMPACT ON BANKS The IMF also said that corrections to stock prices and to currency levels and the uncertainties of the Y2K computer glitch could all have an adverse impact on banks. Banks in developed countries had prepared well for Y2K, which may cause computers to malfunction when Jan. 1 rolls around, but non-banks and banks in emerging markets could be at risk, it added. ``Market reactions could range from a moderate flight to quality to an extreme flight to cash and large cutbacks by major banks in their exposures to emerging markets,'' the IMF said |
| 1999-09-09 | "66% Of U.S. Banks Receive 'High' Y2K Grades; Only 4.5% Rated 'Low' or 'Below Average'" | Wow! 66%!!! Hurra! Det betyder väl å andra sidan att 1/3 INTE är klara? Tänkte inte på det. |
| 1999-09-09 | 8% av multinationella företag hinner inte klart till 1 januari 2000 |
Det här är ett dokument som är publicerat av USIS, en informationskanal för The United States Information Agency, dvs en myndighet i USA.
In a poll of 892 companies taken in June, Beach said 33 percent indicated they were behind schedule and eight percent said they will not complete Y2K remediation until 2000 or later. "Keep in mind these are huge, global firms with significant fiscal and human resources to focus on Y2K," Beach said. "If a significant number of large, global companies are lagging, what does that say for small businesses here and abroad? Small companies simply do not have the same level of manpower and resources as big companies," Beach said. Beach said he can not predict the consequences of some large, global companies being unprepared for Y2K. "The consequences could range from minor inconveniences like a disruption in utility service to widespread economic, social and political upheaval," he said. "Tusan också, jag skulle ju ha sålt lite aktier före årsskiftet..." |
| 1999-09-09 | PR-spinn |
Den här är bra! Japan kommer att ha 100.000 personer i arbete nyårsnatten för att kontrollera... ingenting! "Ingenting kommer att hända, men vi kommer ändå att ha 100.000 personer sysselsatta med det..." Just det. Ingenting. Nada. (Hur mycket sjunker Tokyo-börsen?)
100,000 technicians to stand vigil for millennium hiccups About 100,000 technicians from top Japanese electronic companies will camp out in their offices on New Year's Eve to guard against any computer failures at the turn of the millennium, an industry official said Wednesday. NEC Corp. and Mitsubishi Electric Corp. will both have 15,000 computer specialists on hand 24 hours a day from Dec. 31 to Jan. 4 in case problems occur when the year changes to 2000, said Haruhisa Suzuki, spokesman for the Japan Electronic Industry Development Association. He said Hitachi Ltd., Fujitsu Ltd., Toshiba Corp., and IBM Japan will also have 10,000 technical specialists each on standby to watch out for the so-called Y2K bug. Suzuki said the leading companies will be on alert ''not because they expect problems, but because they need to be there in the unlikely event there is a problem.'' He said larger companies have invested considerable time and effort to ensure a smooth transition from 1999 to 2000, but noted smaller companies which have been through financial difficulties in recent years may not have done as much. Even so, he said he did not expect a significant impact on people's daily lives. |
| 1999-09-09 | Hälften av Ecuadors telefoner kan slås ut i januari 2000 |
En Reuters-nyhet:
QUITO -- Half of Ecuador's phone lines may not work unless contingency plans are put in place to deal with computer glitches that could arise with the date changeover in the year 2000, Communications Director Armando Vinueza said Tuesday. Computers operated by Ecuador's largest phone operator, Pacifictel, which handles service in the Andean country's commercial capital of Guayaquil, are still not millennium compliant, Vinueza said. Some 300,000 lines are at risk of failure, he said. Pacifictel is owned by the government. |
| 1999-09-09 | Jim Lord står fast vid sin tidigare bedömning | I augusti gick Jim Lord ut med information som gav underlag för debatt i nyhetskanalerna CNN och CBS (se Augusti-nyheterna). Trots att många efter detta förkastat informationen som irrelevant, står Jim Lord fast vid vad han tidigare hävdat. |
| 1999-09-09 | 26% av Europas småföretag oförberedda |
Statistiksiffran är illa nog som den är. Någon garanti att resterande 74% överlever 2000-skiftet - eller att någon enda industrigren i Europa eller någon annanstans i världen klarar övergången - finns inte. Små detaljer, antar jag.
"Små"-företagen är inga enmansföretag. De är företag stora nog att ha råd att anställa en IT-manager. Undersökningen som refereras i denna Reuters-artikel baseras på självrapporterade uppgifter. I verkligheten är alltså situationen förmodligen betydligt värre.
Undrar hur stort produktionsbortfallet blir under år 2000. |
| 1999-09-09 | 28 amerikanska kraftbolag klarar inte övergången till år 2000 | 28 amerikanska kraftbolag klarar inte övergången till år 2000. Resterande 7800 antas klara sig. Vad gör myndigheterna åt de 28 kraftbolagen? Ingenting. |
| 1999-09-09 | Italien sent ute - regeringen i krismöte |
...Italian government ministers met to discuss the Y2K problem on Wednesday amid fears the country's state sector will not be ready to meet the challenges of Y2K.
...Committee president Ernesto Bettinelli warned in June that the Italian state sector was lagging far behind the banking system and stock exchange in dealing with the potential problem. "We've been able to identify an alarming state of unawareness in a large part of minor state administration departments," Bettinelli said then. U.S. consultants Caper Jones have estimated the Italian state sector will have to spend around 25 trillion lire ($1.3 billion) on upgrading computer systems to combat the bug. |
| 1999-09-09 | 2,5 miljarder människor massvälter år 2000? |
Kina, Indonesien, Indien och Thailand. I dessa länder bor det ungefär 2500 miljoner människor +/- 100 miljoner eller så. Kraftförsörjningen kan försvinna. Transportsystem kan falera. Massvält? Negativa effekter på aktiemarknaden i så fall? Utan tvivel. Men vi svenskar sitter här uppe i norra Europa och har blivit försäkrade (nåja) av både storföretag och myndigheter att allt fungerar som vanligt här. Inte påverkas väl vi av vad som händer borta i Asien eller Latinamerika eller Östeuropa? Vi är ju svenskar. Ingenting händer oss. Världsekonomin är integrerad och global. Fast inte när aktiemarknaderna faller i andra delar av världen. Då klarar sig Stockholmsbörsen. Det är bra att vara svensk. Vi klarar oss själva. Vi är inte beroende av omvärlden. Eller...?
Warburg Dillon Read warned investors on Monday that Indonesia, India, China and Thailand were ill-prepared for the Y2K problem, and said Hong Kong and Singapore were most ready in the region. "We caution investors on the risks inherent in the state of Y2K readiness in Indonesia, India, China and Thailand," said Sean Debow, head of regional valuation and accounting research. In an interview with Reuters, Debow said he was most concerned about the poor state of readiness of power producers and transportation systems in less-developed markets and the potential fallout on the rest of the region. Debow, whose assessments were based on an eight-week survey of some 230 companies in almost all Asian countries, said decision makers in some companies showed only superficial knowledge of Y2K risks connected to the turn of the century. Many respondents in the survey seemed to think they had solved the problem merely by installing new Y2K compliant computers and software, Debow said. Except for Hong Kong and Singapore, and top-tier firms in South Korea and Taiwan, many companies elsewhere seemed unaware that embedded chips in their systems and manufacturing processes could derail operations in the new millennium, he said. . . . "China has been complacent and the power sector is a long way behind global standards in its preparation for Y2K," Debow said. "The country may well suffer a partial breakdown of its electricity provision system, with loss of generation and blackouts likely," he said. On India, Debow said its key sectors such as power, ports and railway have stated they were unlikely to be Y2K compliant until near the end of the year. "This is a risky prospect," he said. . . . |
| 1999-09-06 | Virusvarning |
Kan bli (ännu) tuffare tider för IT-avdelningarna runt om på företagen efter årsskiftet.
Some people just cannot resist throwing fuel on the fire. Virus writers and hackers are already planning to take advantage of the chaos expected to ensue at the start of the millennium, and experts warn of the potential for hundreds of thousands of viruses to appear before the end of the year. As IT departments begin to take steps to protect their systems from year-2000- related problems, some virus writers and hackers are hoping that viruses will escape the notice of IT managers. ..."It's possible that we could see 200,000 viruses around Y2K," said Carey Nachenberg, chief researcher at the Symantec Anti-virus Research Center (SARC), in Santa Monica, Calif. "We will see a large number of viruses that will do something on January 1." |
| 1999-09-06 | Räntorna stiger på grund av y2k |
... och de kommer att stiga ytterligare. Det här är från Washington Post.
Major corporations, some foreign countries and even the U.S. Treasury have begun to raise enormous amounts of cash just in case something goes wrong somewhere as computer calendars flip over to 2000 from 1999 on Jan. 1. And these preparations already are boosting U.S. interest rates across the board, analysts said. The borrowers say they are rushing to sell many billions of dollars of debt now, not because they fear a computer-glitch catastrophe but rather because they fear that investors will worry such a catastrophe might occur and therefore won't buy securities sold near the end of the year. This flood of debt is boosting the interest rates the issuers have to pay to attract buyers. That, in turn, raises rates on many other types of business and consumer loans. Meanwhile, many lenders and investors are pulling their money out of developing-country markets, where significant year-end computer problems are considered much more likely. "When it comes to raising money in the capital markets, it's prudent to avoid the last few weeks of this year and the first few weeks of next year," said Thomas Capo, senior vice president and treasurer of automaker DaimlerChrylser, which raised $4.5 billion through a bond issue last month. "Why take what is probably a very small amount of risk?" "Corporations are striving to raise cash so they don't have to rely on financial markets late in the year," said Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America in New York. "It is across the spectrum" in terms of different types of securities and creditworthiness of the borrowers. |
| 1999-09-06 | "Kongressen kommer att bli ihågkommen för dess tystnad..." |
Arnaud de Borschgrave är känd journalist och y2k-debattör.
Will the current Congress be remembered for its $792-billion tax cut? Not a chance, says veteran journalist Arnaud de Borchgrave. In August, de Borchgrave told a national radio audience that no one would remember anything about the 106th Congress except its failure to warn the nation about the risks of the year-2000 computer bug. De Borchgrave spent 25 years as a senior editor at Newsweek before becoming editor of the Washington Times and then president/CEO of United Press International. He also has been associated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies at Georgetown University, where he has been vice chairman of the Y2K Risk Assessment Task Force. He is not the sort of Y2K alarmist who sees the U.S. electrical grid failing at midnight, Jan. 1, 2000, and the rest of our technological systems failing in rapid succession. But he argues that the United States will, over a period of time, suffer collateral damage from the breakdown of outdated, uncorrected computer systems in other countries and the introduction of destructive viruses through the Internet. "It is not a question of one thing going wrong," De Borchgrave says on the task force's Web site. "It is a question of tens of thousands of things going wrong." . . . . De Borchgrave maintains that no politician now in office can hope to escape some degree of blame for the fiasco, which may be far worse, farther reaching and longer lasting than most expect. If even only a fraction of the predicted upheavals actually happen, Vice President Al Gore will wish he had never even thought about inventing the Internet. . . . |
| 1999-09-06 | ...och ännu en |
Something unusual is that we now have a massive paper short position
in Gold. I call it a "bearish bubble", but it is worse since on the
short side you must produce the commodity.
What happens if there is some trouble in the world. A nuclear bomb explodes, North Korea invades, Israel is attacked, one of the Soviet disunion's nations invades a neighbor... Gold goes up a modest 10-20% on the news. What else happens? Short answer: the world economy blows up. A sudden move up in the gold price will percipitate a bunch of margin calls in a lot of hedge funds. Even if they wouldn't be required to produce the physical gold, they would be required to put up extra capital. What do they have to sell? Stocks perhaps? Will they have enough to have the banks who made the loans not go bust? The problem with a tonnage sized short position is that a sharp move in the wrong direction can destroy a trillion dollars in capital in a moment. Or at least create a debt of that size. So the news flashes on CNN and everyone calls in a "Sell" order. S&P futures are lock limit down before CNN broadcasts. There are other scenarios - China devalues, or something else pulls the Yen under 100 faster than a response can be made. A "safe" money market fund or two defaults (as Susan mentioned). Also realize the converse is true. If something pops our bubble and what follows starts playing out, Gold will be back over $300 in a flight to quality shortly after stocks break some point, which will precipitate the above collapse. Or 9/9/99 or Y2K might create enough of a hiccup. I t isn't merely a set of isolated bubbles, it is a critical mass where when any of the bubbles pop, the rest do to. But back when the set of bubbles were in the kiloton range Easy Al prevented LTCM from setting off the chain reaction. Don't breathe too heavily or talk above a whisper, or the avalanche might start. Meanwhile more snow is piling up from the moral hazard created. My point in all this is that the crash won't telegraph itself before it happens. Everything will be fine, but at 1:48 PM the NDX futures will be down 300 points in just over a minute. Bonds will tank. Or worse, it will start when you are sleeping. With everything interconnected, when anything goes wrong like the Russian default last year. Why should a few billion dollar default in a known dodgy country cause any havoc? Because LTCM was leveraged to $100B on $5B of assets and was betting spreads would narrow, but instead they widened a small amount - and the same leverage slammed them. And their banks. We are more tightly wound than back then, so a more trivial hiccup could bring the entire structure down. |
| 1999-09-06 | Ännu en med negativa vibbar... |
The BIS (Bank for Int'l Settlements, Basel, Switzerland) is the central bank for all other central banks. Their Y2K view is not cheerful. In a fat report they say "some problems will be missed; new problems will be inadvertently introduced via the remediation process; even the best test programs may not detect all potential errors; uncertainty will remain up to & after Jan 1. In other words, it is inevitable there will be Y2K disruption, athough it's not possible to predict how serious or widespread this disruption will be." So there U have it. Central banks will go into 2000 not knowing if these systems are fixed. They know most are not fixed, worldwide. Compare BIS language to your local bank's PR rubbish. The BIS report goes on in great detail. If U read it all U lose any shred of optimism. The general threat is a breakdown of the inter-bank payments system. And once down, how to get it back up? BIS says: Y2K is "unlike any other disruption problem where identical backup sites can be activated. But any uncorrected Y2K problem is likely to affect both sites so the backup would not be a contingency." It gets worse. BIS, who says what neither private banks nor govt banks dare to say, reveals: "The inability of a major payment & settlement system to function smoothly, or have procedures for isolating problems, will intensify uncertainty/concern. In the extreme case, this could have repercussions throughout the global & domestic systems." Conclusion: the world economy is at acute risk. This is not some "doom/gloom" offbeat writer's view; it's the bluest of the blue chip banks. If your hair hasn't turned grey so far, read the following: The BIS advises banks to get the home phone numbers of regulators & govt officials so they can be contacted at night or on weekends to discuss the prudence of "closing markets & declaring an emergency financial bank holiday." This is scarier than any Y2K newsletter writer (except Gary North) has dared to say. And it's the real thing! U see, if banks go down, there can be no stock/bond/property mkt, or any other mkt, except black mkts of course, using cash. And all this is separate from equal risks from no power, oil, water, & no phones/fax/e-mail. U don't like this? Does that mean it can't happen? Or can it happen even if U don't like it? Try to separate wish from reality. Author Dr.Edward Yardeni, chief economist/global investmnt strategist at Deutsche Banc-Alex Brown has come back from Y2K retirement & says: "Y2K summary: Most have eyes wide shut....My prediction for a global recession in 2000, at 70% odds remains...Stock mkt down 10-30% (that's 1-3000 DJIA pts). Recession major causes: breakdown in just-in-time manufacturing system, & in global oil industry. Y2K could cause another energy crisis." (I'm virtually sure of it--HS) EY notes Y2K press coverage is childish, reports the good news press releases, make no comment, ask no questions. "Some frame Y2K as an all-or-nothing story. Either planes fall out of sky or nothing happens. None consider in between. Anyone who talks in between is lumped into the doomsday category & dismissed as far-fetched..Public is led to believe the casual assurances of the few means everyone will be ready. EY says: "Y2K will turn out to be the greatest story never told--- properly." Reporters squeeze answers out of politicians thought to be in hanky-panky, but never ask ONE question about any Y2K report by anyone in banks/govt/biz. Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, US Inspector General,testified in Senate: Half of 161 nations assessed are reported at medium-to high-risk re Y2K failures in telecommunications, energy &/or transport. Her strong conclusion: "The global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region, & at every economic level. The risk of disruption will likely extend to int'l trade, where a breakdown in any part of the global supply chain would have a serious impact on the US & world economies." Now, tell me dear readers, WHY doesn't TV & the press tell U this? My answer: the banks won't let them. Maybe U have a different answer? |
| 1999-09-02 | Yardeni's senaste Y2K Reporter | Alla vet väl vem Dr. Edward Yardeni är vid det här laget. Här är länken till hans senaste rapport. I den hävdar han bl a att om inte y2k spräcker den finansiella bubblan som just nu blåses upp på marknaderna, så har Alan Greenspan inget val än att själv göra det. Situationen är ohållbar. |
| 1999-09-02 | Feilders rapport om Japan uppsnappad av media |
Business Wire genom CNNfn kommenterar "den världsberömde y2k-auktoriteten" Karl Feilders allt annat än positiva rapport om tillståndet i Japan inför övergången till år 2000.
Year 2000 Wire/Japan is the Biggest Y2K Risk in the World Today; World-renowned Y2K Authority Calls for West to Act Now
TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 31, 1999--Japan's lack of Y2K readiness poses a serious threat to the stability of the world economy. This is the opinion of Karl W Feilder, President and CEO of Greenwich Mean Time and acknowledged world authority on the year 2000 PC problem. Currently on a conference tour of Japan, Feilder is calling for more Y2K-advanced countries to act now or they will not be able to trade with Japan next year. |
| 1999-09-02 | Japan skuldsatt upp över öronen | Japan har byggt upp en skuldsättningsgrad i paritet med Italiens sedan 1992. Trots denna expansiva finanspolitik har inte ekonomin tagit fart. Skulderna fortsätter att stiga, men ekonomin står fortfarande stilla. En global recession kommer att slå mycket hårt mot Japan. Och den y2k-drivna recessionen kommer, var så säkra. Y2k kommer inte att bli en picknick för innehavare av statspapper. Räntorna kommer att stiga till himlen... |
| 1999-09-02 | Aftonbladet listar svenska kommuners 2000-status |
Hur säker är du?
Bara fyra månader kvar till årsskiftet. Har du någon anledning att oroa dig? Vår kartläggning ger besked. Fyra månader kvar till tusenårsskiftet. Men bara en enda kommun av 289 är klar med sitt 2000-arbete.
Varning för sjukvården En stor del av kostnaderna ligger inom kommunerna. Men kartläggningen av kommunernas år 2000-status ger ett nedslående resultat. Av landets 289 kommuner är det bara en enda som hittills uppger att de faktiskt är klara med sitt arbete.
Kommunernas mäter sin 2000-status inom elva områden. På elförsörjningssidan är de flesta färdiga, men inom till exempel vården ligger de flesta långt efter.
|
| 1999-09-02 | Spreadsheet problems... |
Det kan bli stora problem för användare av Excel-applikationer vid årsskiftet, skriver Jim Seymour.
If you've routinely used two-digit year dates in your spreadsheet's date-calculation formulas and functions, for example, you may be in trouble. Most recent and all current spreadsheet software I know will automatically expand year dates for calculations if you've chosen to display them with only two digits--but only if you've actually entered them as four-digit years. Think about it: How else could they work? Checking your own work can be daunting. How many spreadsheets have you built, and how many do you still use? How many of those have you passed on to others? And how many have been passed on even farther in your company, probably to people you have no idea use them? What about databases you've constructed, or more likely, into which you've entered date data? How will you find that data and correct it as necessary? Waiting until problems arise is not a very smart option. Do you really want to go through every worksheet, cell by cell, and every database record, looking for bad data? |
| 1999-09-02 | Japanska resebyråer undviker nyårsafton |
Det här är från Yomuri Shimbun.
In all likelihood, travel agencies will not be competing for customers going overseas during the New Year's holiday season--many agencies, in fact, have decided not to arrange trips at all if it involves flying at midnight on Dec. 31. The Y2K computer glitch has them spooked. The travel agencies got a push from the Foreign Ministry, which has asked those thinking of traveling abroad during the holiday season to plan their trips carefully. Even if the report on airlines and traffic control systems around the world, soon to be released by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), finds that flying will be safe during that time, some customers nonetheless have already given up on the idea of going abroad during the holiday season. |
| 1999-09-02 | CIA och FBI räknar med terroristdåd i samband med y2k | Det kaos som övergången till år 2000 kan komma att innebära är ett umärkt tillfälle för terroristorganisationer att komma undan med sina dåd. Det menar CIA och FBI. |
| 1999-09-02 | Även datan måste göras 2000-säker... |
INFORMATIONWEEK via NewsEdge Corporation : With only four months remaining before the year 2000, most companies are nearing completion of Y2K remediation projects on business applications. But some may be celebrating prematurely if they haven't considered what impact Y2K might have on the data residing within those applications.
Some companies are addressing only the programming logic of applications for Y2K, and that may not be enough, say analysts. Applications might contain problematic data, such as dates recorded as two-digit years. That could lead to computer errors resulting in botched production schedules, incorrect customer bills, or other mishaps. Compared with efforts to update applications, " not as much attention has been paid to verifying that data is correct," Gartner Group analyst Dale Vecchio says. "There is the potential for a big problem." Analysts say some companies are overlooking the issue because they view Y2K as a programming problem rather than a data issue. In such cases, Y2K projects are often headed by programmers, rather than IT operations personnel. |
| 1999-09-02 | En uppdatering av läget i oljeindustrin inför y2k | Det här är ett anonymt inlägg på ett diskussionsforum. Inlägget väcker många bra frågor. |