"Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early 

Warning Approach to Conflict and 

Instability Analysis"


Sean P. O'Brien*

Center for Army Analysis


 This page contains links to additional commentary, analyses, tables, and figures for Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (referred to as GBU in the text below)We assume that visitors to this site are familiar with that article and have come here to obtain the data or follow-up on additional analyses. To download the data and documentation used in that article, click here:


       Replication instructions

      Appendix B (list of countries included in the database)

      The foot notes (and, in some cases, the text) refer readers to this site for additional information on the following:

1. FASE Pattern Classification Methodology

            a. FASE: An Illustrative Application

                                Table 5

            b. Historical Application and Validation    

                        Table 6    Table 7

2. Additional Validation Analyses

            a. Assessing the Veracity of Probabilities Derived from FASE  

                         Figure 3   Figure 4

            b. Sensitivity of Forecast Performance Metrics to Probability Threshold   

                                Figure 5

            c. Restricted FASE vs. Multinomial logit    

                        Table 8   Table 9

3. Forecasting Country Instability

            a. Description of Forecasting Methodology

            b. Forecasts of Country Instability     Table 10

                        1. 2005 (figure 6)

                        2. 2010 (figure 7)

                        3. 2015 (figure 8)

                        4. Country-year forecasts by year

* The opinions and interpretations expressed on this website are my own, do not reflect official U.S. Army policy, and are not necessarily shared by anyone associated with the U.S. Army, the U.S. Department of Defense, or any other agency or organization affiliated with the U.S. government.