"Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early
Warning Approach to Conflict and
Instability Analysis"
Center for Army Analysis
sean.p.obrien@us.army.mil
This page contains links to additional
commentary, analyses, tables, and figures for Anticipating
the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (referred to as GBU in the text below).
We
assume that visitors to this site are familiar with that article and have come
here to obtain the data or follow-up on additional analyses. To download the
data and documentation used in that article, click here:
Codebook
Data
Replication
instructions
Appendix
B (list of countries included in the
database)
The foot notes (and, in some cases, the text)
refer readers to this site for additional information on the following:
1.
FASE Pattern Classification Methodology
a. FASE: An Illustrative Application
b. Historical Application and Validation
2. Additional Validation Analyses
a. Assessing the Veracity of Probabilities Derived from FASE
b. Sensitivity of Forecast Performance Metrics to Probability Threshold
c. Restricted FASE vs. Multinomial logit
3. Forecasting Country Instability
a. Description of Forecasting Methodology
b. Forecasts of Country Instability Table 10
1. 2005 (figure 6)
2. 2010 (figure 7)
3. 2015 (figure 8)
4. Country-year
forecasts by year
* The opinions and interpretations expressed on this website are my own, do not reflect official U.S. Army policy, and are not necessarily shared by anyone associated with the U.S. Army, the U.S. Department of Defense, or any other agency or organization affiliated with the U.S. government.