| Datum | Länk | Egen kommentar |
| 1999-10-31 | Y2K i 25 ord! |
"An unpredictable, worldwide threat to complex, interrelated
economic, social and technological networks dependent on digital
systems that fail to process dates according to unenforced standards."
- Mark Frautschi |
| 1999-10-31 | Amerikaner evakueras från Ryssland inför y2k |
"Russia is toast", för att citera en känd y2k-debattör. Därför överväger nu amerikanska UD att evakuera amerikaner i Ryssland och tre andra före detta Sovjetstater. Det här är från ABC News.
State Department officials say they are close to a final decision to allow American embassy staffs to leave Russia and three other former Soviet states ahead of potential Y2K disruptions. Officials expect the department will announce an “authorized departure” policy for U.S. government employees who work in Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. It is also expected to issue formal travel warnings to Americans traveling or residing in these countries. Until now, the State Department has been reluctant to publicly criticize countries that may not be prepared for Y2K, not wishing to embarrass countries that have lagged far behind. But with the authorized departures and travel warnings, the United States will now be naming names. “This sends an important political signal to those countries,” said an official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. |
| 1999-10-31 | Få orkar (vill inte) bry sig |
Det blir ingen y2k-kris. Detta vet vi av två anledningar:
1) Artikelförfattarens tidning är 2000-säkrad, enligt killen som åtgärdade den. (Självrapporterat, otestat, beredskapsplan? Artikelförfattaren litar på hans ord); 2) Allmänheten är trött på att höra om y2k. Med bevis som ovan finns det ju inget att oroa sig för. Det är därför allmänheten inte är oroad. Det kommer bli fler artiklar liknande denna... Länken går till Acron Beacon Journal. |
| 1999-10-31 | Större programmeringsprojekt ofta försenade om de ens slutförs |
Här är ett pdf-dokument som är författat av Jim Lord.
. . . Studies show that over the past thirty years, half of all large software projects are either finished late or cancelled. Y2K is the largest and most expensive software project in history and it has an inflexible deadline. One more thing. Late projects are typically reported to management as being on schedule until very late in the game. Software Project Managers typically won’t admit how far behind they are in a late project until the very end. It’s too easy to believe that by putting in some ovetime and working a little harder, you’ll catch up. To be honest, most won’t even realize how far behind they are until they get deep into the testing phase. Two of our most respected software experts have written on this aspect of Y2K. Capers Jones in “The Year 2000 Software Problem: Quantifying the Costs and Assessing the Consequences,” says the average software project is finished 6-7 months late. Large projects are completed 26 months late on average. Ed Yourdon, in “Timebomb 2000,” says this, “What’s taking place on almost all Y2000 projects is NOT estimating, but rather a form of ‘backwards wishful thinking.’ It starts as follows: everyone knows what the ‘ultimate’ deadline is for Y2000 – we can’t negotiate or ignore that fact. … Indeed, most organizations have arbitrarily decreed that their Y2000 projects WILL, by golly, be finished on Dec 31, 1998. (Mar 31, 1999 for the federal government.). Not because anyone did any … estimating, or planning … but simply because that’s when management has decreed that things will be done. … This is not a new phenomenon: we’ve been doing it for 30 years, everytime management imposes an arbitrary deadline on project managers, … nobody has the guts to stand up and say, ‘Hell no!” The federal government now says that 97% of their critical systems are compliant. I’m having a very hard time believing it. My conversations with heavy-duty technical types convince me that what is going on is hasty (read sloppy) remediation followed by insufficient testing all done under poor technical management. There will be immense pressure to fudge the data. Managers can always claim they’re on schedule by cutting out some testing. Better yet, simply announce compliancy. That really takes the pressure off. I’m convinced these supposedly “on time” projects have been declared compliant because it was politically necessary to do so. And because that’s when the boss wanted them done. |
| 1999-10-31 | Japans premiärminister uppmanar japaner att hamstra |
...Japan's Government has warned people to stock up to three days' worth of water, food, fuel and medicine to ride out the Y2K computer bug.
Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi told a meeting of Y2K bug experts to accelerate preparations for key lagging areas and "create a crisis management system during the New Year period". |
| 1999-10-31 | FN och andra humanitära organisationer "redo" att hjälpa vid y2k-krisen | De säger att de är "redo". Men de vet inte för vad och hur omfattande problemen blir. Men de är redo. Duh! |
| 1999-10-31 | "Amerikaner är paranoida över y2k" | Jepp. Du läste det här först! Jo, det är faktiskt sant! |
| 1999-10-31 | Y2k orsak till stigande guldpris, enligt krönika |
Det här är från Gold-Eagle.
Although various precious metals experts claim that there never will be a simultaneous, mass demand for physical precious metal possession, once again, it is important to realize that we are in the homestretch approaching the much feared y2k "event," and this year, people and financial institutions have begun to demand the real physical metals, not simply their paper representations. Bullion sales are running some 600% ahead of the past year and some physical shortages already have arisen. Still, the mass race for pre-y2k supplies of precious metals has probably not even begun yet since people appear to be treating y2k in the same manner they treat their annual income tax preparation...Wait Until the Last Moment! |
| 1999-10-31 | Testning och Vilfredo Pareto |
Den gamla 80-20 regeln gäller överallt.
"Most of our customers have gone back and found errors, contradicting what they have learned in formal testing," Meta Group analyst Rich Evans said. Conventional tools search among an infinite number of variable names for date functions that may include year 2000-problems. The Y2K bug is a design flaw that may lead computers that read only the last two digits of a year to mistake the year 2000 for 1900. Data Integrity software looks at specific computer language dealing with dates, not just variables specified by programmers, the company said. "On average we find 100 misses per million lines of code," president Allen Burgess said. "Some companies are more, some are less, but any variable not found can cause problems." Evans said in most cases testing programs have only touched about 20 percent of computer code, so a majority of previously tested code has not been truly reviewed, Burgess said. "So there really is a false sense of security in our opinion," he said. |
| 1999-10-31 | Tröga byråkrater dansar igen | Med TVÅ månader kvar till tidernas mest fixa deadline (global dessutom) FÖRESLÅR denna byråkrat att mer resurser skall tillföras länder som ligger efter i 2000-arbetet (dvs i princip ALLA länder i världen utom en handfull) i syfte att ÖKA MEDVETENHETEN om 2000-problemet. SYSTEMEN DÅ? Ska inte de ÅTGÄRDAS? Ska inga medel anslås för detta? Det här är från ett vittnesmål inför amerikanska Senaten från en representant för Världsbanken. |
| 1999-10-31 | Testning ett MÅSTE |
Det räcker inte att ha upprättat en beredskapsplan för oväntade händelser. Både företagets system OCH beredskapsplan MÅSTE testas före årsskiftet. Många säger att de kan övergå till att driva sin verksamhet "manuellt". Är det testat i så fall? Det här är från Computer Currents.
Although federal agencies continue to make strong progress toward Y2K remediation, government Y2K planners must place more emphasis on developing and testing contingency and so-called "day-one" plans, a panel of experts said at a congressional hearing today. Agencies that do not establish viable contingency plans "run the risk of an untrained response (to Y2K failures) that is more ad hoc in nature and (that) may be the wrong response," US General Accounting Office (GAO) Y2K expert Joel Willemssen said today. Willemssen spoke at a hearing on contingency and day one planning held by the House Government Reform Committee's Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology and the House Science Committee's Subcommittee on Technology. Although most federal agencies have complied with an Office of Management and Budget (OMB) request to submit contingency and day one plans, many of those plans remain incomplete, according to today's witnesses. Willemssen is also concerned that not all federal contingency and day- one plans have been tested. "Day-one plans should be reviewed and, if possible, rehearsed," Willemssen said. Day-one plans are basically to-do lists for agencies to follow in the few days leading up to and following the date rollover. They set out a laundry list of actions aimed at assessing and addressing any Y2K- related glitches. Contingency plans are designed to be implemented only in the event of system failures. OMB had sent an Oct. 15 deadline for agencies to submit contingency and day one plans, and with the exception of a handful of smaller agencies, all have complied with the deadline, OMB Administrator John Spotila said today. OMB has also asked agencies which provided incomplete information to submit updated plans as soon as possible. Willemssen also raised concerns that most agencies have not reported how much it would cost to implement their contingency plans, but Spotila said that the OMB has been deliberately lenient in that area. "The most important (consideration) for agencies should be getting their plans in place," he said. Joining Willemssen and Spotila in testifying before today's hearing were Y2K planners from the Department of Defense, Internal Revenue Service, Social Security Administration, and a handful of other agencies. All outlined their contingency and day-one planning efforts. A GAO report on federal day-one and contingency planning released at today's hearing also points out flaws and inadequacies in the reporting efforts of state-administered federal programs such as the Department of Agriculture's Food and Nutrition Service (food stamp) program and the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Program. |
| 1999-10-29 | Venezuela och Mexiko illa ute inför år 2000 |
Vad händer med oljeflödena? Vad händer med oljepriset? Vad händer med världsekonomin? Den globala recessionen kommer allt närmare...
The effects of a computer meltdown would be devastating for countries like Venezuela and Mexico, Latin America's biggest oil producers, whose economies depend heavily on how much petroleum they sell to the United States. For Americans who get most of their oil from Latin America - and who are being assured that most critical systems in the United States are now Y2K-compliant - an oil supply disruption could mean everything from higher prices at the gas pumps next year to long-term fuel shortages. ...But even the most optimistic programmers admit they won't know whether their preparations will work until that Saturday in January. ''Everything from our payroll to the pipelines and our health clinics is run mostly by technology,'' said Luis Paredes, Y2K project director for PDVSA in Paraguana. ''We've taken care of just about everything, but there are so many possibilities of what could happen at midnight.'' ...A US Senate report released in August concluded that Venezuela was 12 to 18 months behind schedule in adapting its most critical government and business systems, mostly because of the political and economic turmoil that has gripped that country. It also predicted that 33 percent of all Mexico's computer systems would fail because of Y2K problems. |
| 1999-10-29 | Avhoppad ryss varnar i starka ordalag för Ryssland |
Överste Stanislav Lunev är en av de högst rankade avhoppade ryssarna. Den före detta GRU- och KGB-agenten kom till USA 1992. Ryssland kommer att kollapsa, säger han.
Russians are facing a greater disaster, a gigantic "Y2K, Russian Style," if you will, which they fear even more. They know that when this "Y2K, Russian Style" has finally run its course, normal daily life, to the extent it still exists in Russia, will vanish altogether. They foresee the following bleak prospects: The entire banking system, which hasn’t restored itself since last year’s collapse, will be wiped out once and for all. And Russians who haven’t been smart enough to keep their money at home will have their assets wiped out as well. The gas, oil, gold, lumber, and public-utilities industries will terminally close down. The new middle class not ruined by last years’ crisis will disappear completely as a social entity. Industrial and agricultural production will collapse, and real economy (not the virtual economy of the last several years) will cease to exist, in a country which must depend on exports. What is more, the military chain of command, communications between the armed forces, and control over the nuclear arsenal will disintegrate, with the heightened possibility for the accidental launch of nuclear missiles. The ensuing political chaos in Russia will be followed by a repressive social order under a new dictatorship, eliminating any chance of democratic reforms. |
| 1999-10-29 | Polacker börjar ta ut pengar inför årsskiftet |
Här är en nyhet från Bloomberg News.
Poles join rush to withdraw savings to allay Millennium concern Anna Wozniak, a 27-year-old Polish account manager, is worried a Year 2000 computer glitch will prevent her from accessing the zloty she saved at Wielkopolski Bank Kredytowy SA for a new car. So she's taking it all out now. ``I'm not going to bet my money to find out what can happen on Jan. 1,'' said Wozniak, who is saving to buy a car. Wozniak is among a growing number of Poles who fear computer breakdowns on Jan. 1, 2000 will wipe out records of deposits at Polish banks or prevent quick withdrawals -- and are acting on those concerns now. Half of 4,000 Poles surveyed by Pentor SA, a Polish market researcher, expect banks' computers to malfunction at the turn of the millennium; one-third of those polled say they plan to withdraw all their savings before then. Such anxieties have made cash more expensive worldwide as three-month borrowing overlaps the new year. In Poland, the spread between the three-month Warsaw Interbank Offered Rate and the rate at which banks borrow for one day has widened to 600 basis point from this year's average 50 basis points. Analysts said the Polish banking industry is among the country's best-prepared for possible computer breakdowns on Jan. 1, 2000 associated with Y2K -- a potential problem in which software recognizes the two-digit shorthand '00 as 1900 instead of 2000. The risk, they say, lies in what the banks can't predict. ``We are uncertain how people will behave at the end of the year,'' Andrzej Powierza, an investment adviser at Wood & Co. in Warsaw, said in a report. If individuals rush to withdraw their savings, ``banks may face some liquidity problems.'' Global Impact The concerns are global. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has ordered printing an additional $50 billion in currency notes to have on hand in late December to satisfy the potential for enormous cash withdrawals from commercial banks. Smaller banks in smaller countries such as Poland, with a population of 40 million, could see a significant impact on earnings. ``I wouldn't underestimate the liquidity problem,'' said Artur Szeski, a banking analyst at Pekao CDM Securities in Warsaw. ``The cost of cash emergency funds that banks will need to have can't be ignored. This will be reflected in earnings.'' `Alarming' ``Survey results are at least troubling, if not alarming,'' Pentor's report said. ``Clients may panic and this may be a serious threat for banks' liquidity.'' Pentor says only one in 10 people it surveyed was confident Polish banks are prepared for the Year 2000. More than half are afraid their money will disappear, or that there will be delays in cashing deposits and making transfers. The survey has a margin of error of 1.8 percent. ``We now watch deposits much closer than usual, and we may consider special offers for our clients, if there are signals they're needed,'' said Sebastian Luczak, Pekao's spokesman. ``The thing is even the most reasonable people can panic.'' ...Still, as the next millennium approaches, Wozniak, who travels regularly, said she wants to feel secure she can have her money whenever she wants it. ``My work schedule doesn't allow me to worry about my bank,'' Wozniak said. ``I simply don't have time.'' |
| 1999-10-29 | 32% av brittiska företag förväntar sig gynnas av att konkurrenter drabbas av y2k-problem |
Almost a third of Britain's biggest businesses believe their competitors will be savaged by the Millennium bug, with more than half expecting to benefit from rivals' misfortunes.
According to the Year 2000 Contingency Planning Survey, published today by independent Y2K watchdog Taskforce 2000 and consultants Adam Associates, 32 per cent of Britain's top 1000 companies are counting on rivals being hit by the bug. Nearly 60 per cent expect to gain a competitive advantage by having business continuity plans in place. Although the vast majority (98 per cent) of big businesses believe they have contingency plans in place to cope with their own Y2K related problems, but the survey reveals that many may be unworkable. Around 22 per cent of the survey's respondents admitted that contingency plans had not been tested at all and 41 per cent said that although plans were in place these had not been communicated to staff. One in five companies admitted that no steps have been taken to ensure relevant staff will be able to get to work during the critical New Year period and 14 per cent have not secured staff for that time. Only 29 per cent said that the contingency plans they have in place had been validated by a third party. |
| 1999-10-29 | Y2K är kroniskt | Kolumnisten E.L. Core fortsätter sina iakttagelser över hur vanliga människor uppfattar år 2000-problematiken. |
| 1999-10-29 | Ett scenario | Vad händer om elektriciteten slås ut under en längre tid? Länken går till ett scenario. |
| 1999-10-29 | Har Goldman Sachs helt tappat omdömet? |
USA:s ekonomi är extremt beroende av sin utrikeshandel. man är beroende av utlandet. Det allt stigande handelsbalansunderskottet visar tydligt att USA:s konsumenter blir allt mer beroende av varor och tjänster från utlandet. Men detta faktum verkar analytiker på ansedda investmentbanken Goldman Sachs ha missat. De menar att USA inte kommer att påverkas om kaos uppstår utanför USA. Just det.
Länken går till en artikel i Washington Post. |
| 1999-10-29 | Ska det amerikanska skatteverket (IRS) sänka USA? |
Det här är från Investors Business Daily. IRS är inte klart med sina förberedelser ännu. De har hållit på att 2000-säkra sina system i över tio år...
Is the taxman ready for the Year 2000? Such questions have grown increasingly common in recent weeks as the end-of-the-millennium frenzy begins. The question is more than moot. A computer meltdown at the nation's tax collector could result in financial chaos. Lost records and mangled data could take years to recover and restore, costing the nation's taxpayers billions of dollars in lost time and effort - and the government potentially billions of dollars in taxes. But in a speech Tuesday, IRS Commissioner Charles Rossotti tried to allay such fears. He told his audience that the agency would indeed have all its computers up and running in time for the switchover. ''In that area which is clearly critical to our whole economy, the tax system will continue to function, notwithstanding Y2K. . . . The most serious risk is behind us,'' he said. ''We will probably have some strange looking notices, that come out here and there, but we will be prepared to react to those very quickly,'' he added. But others aren't sure the IRS is out of the woods, at least not completely. ''They have made a lot of progress, but there's still some changes they need to work through,'' said Sherrie Russ, an assistant director of the tax policy issue at Congress' General Accounting Office. Russ notes that some testing of the IRS' software and hardware will not be completed until late 1999 - just before the switchover. Also, the IRS only recently began taking inventory of all systems. According to Russ, the massive agency may have missed some items in its inventory. An IRS spokeswoman says that 94% of it mission-critical systems are compliant. But a Treasury Department status report in September noted that at least four IRS ''mission critical'' systems have not yet been completed or are not year-2000 compliant. |
| 1999-10-29 | Säkerheten är dålig, säger officiell amerikansk rapport |
Allmänheten går i sömnen. Vill inte se. Regeringarna vet att felaktigheter kommer att uppstå, men säger inget. Det här är från amerikanska senatens hemsida.
Funded by the Nathan Cummings Foundation and prepared by the Texas Engineering Experiment Station's (TEES) Mary Kay O'Connor Process Safety Center headquartered at Texas A&M University in College Station, the report conducted a scientific survey of firms with 200 or fewer employees in New Jersey, Kansas, California and Texas. Its results include the following: 86.5 percent of firms surveyed are not currently prepared for Y2K. 85.6 percent have not coordinated emergency plans with local/community officials. A majority have not linked contingency planning to community emergency services such as police, fire and rescue, or hospitals. 79 percent said they had never before been surveyed about Y2K preparedness. A majority of respondents do not belong to industry organizations or trade associations, which have been the primary gatherers of Y2K preparedness information in the private sector. 4.1 percent said Y2K presents Apotential for a catastrophic event. In addition, the survey said that small and medium-sized chemical firms are, in general, "far-removed from technology advances, basic information and know-how, and access to technical and financial resources". "This is the case for many small businesses outside the chemical industry as well," said Bennett. "And while small business Y2K preparedness is important for our economy, few small businesses in other industries carry the same public safety concerns with regard to their Y2K preparedness." Dr. M. Sam Mannan, the O'Connor center director and associate professor of chemical engineering at Texas A&M, conducted the study with project manager Charles Isdale. "We suggest that special emphasis be given to contingency planning and communications issues, given the lack of preparation time remaining," said Mannan. "Sharing contingency planning strategies and coordination with local responders is highly recommended." "Plant managers, workers and emergency responders must redouble their efforts to coordinate contingency planning and implementation," said U.S. Chemical Safety Board member, Dr. Jerry Poje. "The time to apply an ounce of prevention is running out." |
| 1999-10-29 | 15% av amerikanska skolor kommer inte att kunna öppna i januari 2000 |
Här är en nyhetsartilel från MSNBC.
With two months to go, more than a third of the nation’s schools and colleges remain unprepared for the Year 2000’s effect on computers and other technology, the Education Department said today. In the worst-case scenario, some of the nation’s schoolchildren could return from winter vacation to find heating systems, cafeteria freezers and security systems failing — or kaput. |
| 1999-10-29 | Y2K år 2009 | Hur kommer vi se tillbaka på år 2000-problemet om tio år? En intressant artikel. Rätt eller fel? Ingen kan veta. |
| 1999-10-29 | 40% av amerikanska småföretag missar deadline |
Vad händer då med storföretagen som är beroende av sina underleverantörer? Mycket läsvärd sammanställning av fakta. LÄS OCH BEGRUNDA!
NFIB research indicates that 60% of the small businesses had done something to prepare for Year 2000; therefore, 40% had done nothing, with 75% of that group actually planning to do nothing (which is 30% of the total). My position is, and my projections are, that any company, organization or government, which was not completely ready by mid-year 1999, will not be completely ready by 2000. A portion of that 60% of small businesses will not be fully ready, and since 30% actually plan to do nothing, it is easy to see that at least 40% of all small businesses will not be ready for 2000 when it arrives. I have taken this position with all sectors on which I have reported in this document: i.e., 100% of the sector, less the percentage of those "ready" leaves the percentage of those "not ready." Those not ready will also not be ready at 1 January 2000. Given that any survey results are usually several months old by the time we digest them, in the case of Year 2000 I have seen that the patterns displayed by any particular survey hold true from report to report, survey to survey. At this late date in the Year 2000 issue those patterns for any group or sector under observation will continue until 2000 gets here, and beyond. |
| 1999-10-25 | Amerikanska allmänheten vilseledd |
Social Security Administration, SSA, har arbetat med att åtgärda sina system inför år 2000 i TIO års tid. TIO ÅR. Man är fortfarande inte klara. Och kommer inte att hinna klart heller. Hur stor blir skadan? Ingen vet.
Thousands of repairs are still needed in order to get Social Security checks out on time in the new year, according to recent congressional testimony. Despite ten years of preparations, the Social Security Administration is still not ready to deal with the Y2K computer glitch. The banking system is also not ready, while the major Fortune 1000 companies still face major Y2K-related disruptions, according to recent reports. "The Social Security system is now 100 percent compliant with our standards and safeguards for the year 2000," said President Bill Clinton last December. Recent testimony would indicate that the American public has been deceived. After the president's declaration there was a great deal of bragging about the agency. They were held up as a great example of what a government agency can accomplish. The SSA began work on the Y2K computer problem in 1989, long before other government agencies. President Clinton assured older Americans that they have nothing to worry about. Social Security checks would arrive on time after Jan. 1. The Y2K bug would not bite the fixed income of America's elderly, he assured the public. However, some say problems could emerge. "SSA's work is not yet complete," said Joel C. Willemssen when he testified recently before a committee of the House of Representatives. "Certain tasks integral to ensuring its overall readiness for the year 2000 must still be accomplished," he added, directly contradicting the president's statement. Willemssen is director of the Civil Agencies Information Systems Accounting and Information Management Division. His warning should not be taken lightly. His statement means parts of the system are not yet Y2K compliant, ready, fixed, or even prepared. Yet the unprepared parts of the system are critical to getting checks out on time, for the correct amounts and to the right people. One of the problems involves "data exchanges," he said. This is information sent to and received from other agencies and organizations which are known to be less than Y2K ready themselves. Willemssen also expressed concern in his testimony that contingency planning has not yet been completed. Social Security payments may not get through because of banks that have Y2K disruptions. "SSA plans to assist Treasury in developing alternative disbursement processes for problematic financial institutions," said Willemssen. |
| 1999-10-20 | Y2K orsak till vinstvarningar |
Risken finns (läs: är överhängande) att y2k krossar vinstdrömmarna år 2000. Reparationskostnaderna har kraftigt underskattats av de flesta företag.
En tredjedel av dessa har inte eller tänker inte spendera ett öre, en cent eller en penny.
De flesta amerikanska företag är idag inte 2000-säkrade, ännu mindre sluttestade. Sedan kommer det att uppstå problem med leverantörskedjor, inklusive import av exempelvis olja.
Marknaden har helt ignorerat detta. Investorer vill inte tänka på några negativa effekter på deras portföljer därför att de
inte vill se att deras liv då skulle påverkas. Marknadsteori säger att den fria marknadens kapitalmarknader hela tiden
tar hänsyn till alla nyheter. Men är det inte så att marknaden bara tar hänsyn till sådan information som människor
är emotionellt villiga att tro på? Många fondförvaltare var fortfarande barn 1974. 1929? Ingen i beslutssituation minns.
När y2k-oron har börjat få reala effekter på ekonomin, har aktiepriserna redan sjunkit. Men fondförvaltarna struntar i detta.
Ingen är så blind som den som inte vill se.
It looks like the Y2K bug still has some bite left. In the past week, phrases such as "Y2K uncertainties" have popped up in earnings warnings from Lexmark International, Xerox and Unisys. The stocks of all three companies took a shellacking: Monday, the stock of Lexmark, a printer company and former IBM division, plunged $28 to close at $65. Xerox stock dropped $3.625 to close at $23.8125, down from more than $40 two weeks ago. Unisys closed off $1.875 at $23, down from $42.25 before it reported earnings last week. All these stocks trade on the New York Stock Exchange. For all three companies, concern about the millennium bug -- the glitch that prevents some computers and software from recognizing the year 2000 -- wasn't the primary factor in revenue or earnings disappointments they announced. "But it was a factor in all three cases," says Steven Milunovich, a computer analyst and manager of tech research at Merrill Lynch. |
| 1999-10-20 | Vad Jane Garvey "glömde" säga... |
Jane Garvey är chef för Federal Aviation Administration, FAA. Alltså motsvarigheten till svenska Luftfartsverket.
Den 30 juni deklarerade hon att hennes myndighet, FAA, var 2000-säkrad. Detta var emellertid väldigt
långt ifrån sanningen. Följande är från ett tal från 14:e september av Joel Willemssen på General Accounting Office (GAO), vilket är
motsvarigheten till svenska Statskontoret - en myndighet som granskar myndigheterna. Pressen missade tydligen detta...
...AND a growing concern is that federal agencies should not think that once they are certified as "Y2K compliant", that it is over. The FAA said it was compliant June 30th, and what we sampled was all OK. But, then we found there were 967 systems changes later that were not checked, plus 200 in progress. The FAA will track these, but it is important to get the word out [[about the need to check changes]]. Another important issue is to do as much end-to-end testing as possible in the time remaining. The FAA, most of its 21 systems are not end-to-end tested yet. Ooops. |
| 1999-10-20 | "Marknaden kommer att stiga idag" | Marknaden har fortfarande inte fattat. Den länkade marknadsrapporten är från i förrgår, men kan tjäna som ett exempel bland många. Kontexten är ungefär denna: "Marknaden har gått ner några dagar nu, men nu är det dags att det stiger igen, ty rapporter om stigande vinster under kvartal 3 1999 kommer att trilla in. Köp!" Min fråga: Vad händer med vinsterna år 2000? Det är det som är intressant. 2000-problemen kommer att få genomslag på vinster, eftersom den globala y2k-recessionen kommer att drabba alla företag. Och i den länkade rapporten säger någon att marknaden är undervärderad. Ha! |
| 1999-10-20 | FCC tar y2k på största allvar |
Federal Communications Commission, FCC, i USA betonar de stora riskerna som telesektorn är utsatt för vid övergången till år 2000.
...The implications of the millennial date change problem are especially significant for the communications industry because communications rely upon the seamless interconnection of numerous disparate networks and systems. Consider hundreds of millions of users of communications services throughout the country transmit voice, data and video information through a communications infrastructure composed of wireline telephone networks, cellular and personal communications systems, satellite communication systems, broadcasting and cable television systems, and the Internet. Many critical programs, such as Federal Reserve electronic fund transfers and Medicare benefit payments, also depend upon this ubiquitous infrastructure and, consequently, could be seriously affected if the Y2K Problem interrupts telephone and data networking services. ...By no means does industry contend that they have completed their testing and validation efforts. Consequently, NRIC represented that the current focuses of major carriers and providers remain steadfastly on testing and contingency planning at all levels. In this context, the major communications providers and prominent trade organizations have commenced a dialogue on the issue of network protection and stabilization to minimize problems associated with the Year 2000 changes. ...The major communications companies have generally been working diligently during the past several years on Year 2000 remediation. Most companies have devoted tremendous amounts of executive management leadership, human resource assets, financial capital and technical expertise on both the direct and indirect effects of the problem. It has come to the Commission's attention that, in a number of instances, in both private industry and within the government, networks that were remediated, tested, and determined to be Year 2000-compliant have been disrupted by the addition of other systems, databases, and changes to networks not related to Year 2000. In effect, these changes threaten to ``undo'' Year 2000-remediation performed on networks, at a time when much work remains to be done. TA Y2K PÅ ALLVAR!!! |
| 1999-10-20 | "2000-störningar peakar i januari, men omfattande störningar kommer att bestå under många månader" | Jim Lord & Peter de Jager menar att kostnaderna för att åtgärda 2000-problem kommer att spädas på under nästa år. Få företag har riktigt förberett sig för dessa "extra" kostnader. Det kommer att märkas i företagens vinster. Det kommer att råda fortsatt brist på kvalificerad arbetskraft. 2000-problemen kommer inte att försvinna. De kommer att fortsätta poppa upp under många månader framöver. |
| 1999-10-20 | Windows 98 behöver 4 megabyte med buggfixar för att klara övergången till år 2000 |
Hur mycket behöver Windows 95? Är det ens idé att försöka uppgradera Windows 95?
En 486:a är inte 2000-kompatibel. 20% av alla PC:ar är inte 2000-kompatibla. De som bygger sin verksamhet på äldre PC:ar är illa ute. Y2K checks yield surprises I have done more than three dozen Y2K assessments for clients ranging from small businesses to large government agencies. conducting these assessments, I discovered things about Y2K compliance that surprise most people. Here are some facts you should know -- but probably don't. Believe it or not Windows NT, Windows 98 (First Edition) and Windows 95 all come out of the box as Y2K compliant! Sure, there are fixes available, but someone to download patches from Microsoft to make these systems work properly beyond Dec. 31, 1999. I have done this for a number of customers and it's surprising how much fixing is needed. Windows 98 requires a 4MB patch, for example. To imagine what it will be like if you wait until Jan 2 to go online for the patches, picture the post office on April 15. It's the hardware, too One in five PCs that I test prove to be non-Y2K compliant, even some that were purchased as as 18 months ago. If you have a 486 or CPU, it will most likely fail because the Basic Input Output System (BIOS) on machines that old fails to recognize the four-digit year. You could have an accounting package that "ages" receivables, suddenly shows nothing past 30 days because 2000 may be read as 1900 on the computer's real-time clock. No easy answers Some people have set their Windows date to 2000 to see what happens. This will not prove anything. When the Windows date to 2000, is translated through BIOS back to the real-time clock inside the computer. The real-time clock may still only recognize dates starting with 19xx and read the 2000 date as 1900. An application, like our accounting package, may be programmed to get the date directly from the real-time clock. But this varies by application and makes testing for Y2K readiness full of surprises. Of course some people think they are not subject to the Y2K problem. I saw a handmade sign in an espresso bar that said, "This tip jar is Y2K compliant!" I used to be surprised that most of my customers said the same thing about their PC hardware and their Windows operating system. In my experience, rarely is this the case. In fact, to date, I have only had one account that passed all of hardware and software tests. |
| 1999-10-20 | Ett av tre brittiska företag har redan upplevt 2000-störningar |
90% av större brittiska företag räknar med problem med elförsörjningen och telekommunikationer och förbereder sig därefter. Oron bland företagen själva ökar i takt med att de hittar fler och fler fel. Hur mycket har de missat? Hur mycket kommer de att missa? Hur drabbas de själva? Deras kunder? Deras leverantörer? Det här är från BBC.
Almost one in three large companies has already experienced millennium bug problems, says a survey. The campaigning group Taskforce 2000 says 90% of big firms are preparing for power cuts and disruption to phone systems and computers as a result of the bug. And 31% have already experienced millennium-related failures that had already begun to occur. ...The report, published on Monday, paints a picture of growing unease about disruptions to essential services such as electricity, water and telecommunications. |
| 1999-10-17 | Ansedd ekonom förutspår amerikansk recession inom 12-18 månader |
Henry Kaufman beskrivs i den här CBS-artikeln som "a major U.S. economist with an excellent record of prediction". Han förutspår nu en recession i USA inom 12-18 månader. Följ gärna länken och läs intervjun med honom.
"The next recession will begin in 12 to 18 months." So says Henry Kaufman, head of the influential international economic consulting firm that bears his name. Attention has long been paid to Dr. Kaufman, notably since the time he was the chief economist and an executive committee member of Salomon Brothers and he predicted, early on August 17, 1982, that interest rates had reached their peaks after six years of a rising trend. Later the same day the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 39 points, or 4.9 percent -- its biggest jump in history till then -- and set off on the 17-year bull market that still continues. |
| 1999-10-16 | "Brittiska företag är så dåligt förberedda inför år 2000 att deras fortlevnad står på spel" |
Detta står att läsa i en oberoende rapport från Mercury Interactive. Hoppas svenska företag är bättre förberedda... Men å andra sidan, eftersom debatten i Sverige är närmast obefintlig, varför skulle situationen vara bättre här?
Y2K software testing in British companies is so poor that there is a serious threat to their business continuity, a report published says. The independent report, commissioned by Mercury Interactive, the automated software testing systems firm, says that thousands of companies are risking major information technology (IT) systems failures from the Y2K issue, simply because their systems software remains unchecked. The problem, the company says, is that, although many UK business have learned how to check their IT systems to solve the Y2K problem, the study found that many business-critical software applications risk failure because they have not been tested rigorously enough - or not at all. The report, entitled "The State of Software Testing in the UK," says that, despite wide recognition of the need to test business-critical software applications, four out of every ten UK businesses in the survey sample do not plan to test their IT projects before they are launched. Andy Crosby, European field market manager with the firm, said that, at a business level, as well as a technical level, the survey substantiates the case that automated testing of software and systems is no longer an option but an imperative. ..."Management, at the IT level and right through to the chief executive, should ensure that the testing of their organization's software assets is an active item on the business agenda," he said. "To ignore the messages in this survey may be likened to failing to implement an adequate insurance policy against fire and flood, but in this case it is a crucial policy that applies to IT and the major risk of system and business failure," he added. |
| 1999-10-16 | Det här är ett dokument som alla tveksamma bör läsa |
Howard Rubin från Cap Gemini beskriver i vittnesmål inför Senaten omfattningen och komplexiteten i år 2000-problemen:
More than ten months after my preparing the initial United Nations briefing document on the global aspects of the Year 2000 crisis and fifteen months after my appearance at the Senate Field Hearing in New York City, it is still virtually impossible to create an accurate worldwide picture of the Year 2000 readiness of nations, businesses, and society. This is quite an incredible statement to make and not very good "news" considering that Year 2000 readiness rating "sources" abound…. ranging from analyst prognostications to industry group reports to information posted on national web pages. In my opinion, the truly bad news relating to the Year 2000 global picture actually transcends the technical aspects of the Year 2000 problem:
Additionally, it is fairly easy to develop a complacent attitude toward the Year 2000 problem in the US and developed nations because of their large pools of technological resources and funding to apply to the problem. However, it is extremely difficult to assess the impact potential of Year 2000 on any single nation or region when the role of technology in its basic functioning is either misunderstood or not understood at all. Year 2000 risks in the world’s less developed (and even developed nations) are not primarily in the information systems which provide support to the revenue generating and profit producing systems of their key enterprises. The real risks are embedded in the basic lifeline systems of their infrastructure and are also embedded in the systems that run processing plants and transport system. Failures in any of these areas can result in loss of life, degradation of quality of life, and even perhaps environmental hazards or disasters. The sources of these risks are both invisible – we don’t even know that they are there – and "not visible" – we know that they are there but cannot find or see them. While the general "feeling" is that risks posed by malfunctioning embedded systems or chips is relatively low, the fact that the probability is low does not imply that these are not risks. From a US-centric standpoint it is hard to imagine that such risks exist at all with any degree of probabilistic significance. In the US we live in a Year 2000 information environment with abundant sector reports, hearings, and community activity. However, as I write this statement, the YES Corps team that I am part of is assisting more than 40 nations with serious concerns about their power generation and distribution systems, international telecommunications gateways, healthcare delivery mechanisms, and transport systems. Most recently concerns have arisen in the areas of process plants/refineries, water supply, defense, and even educational record systems. Yet another concern of many nations that the YES Corp assists, has to do with accuracy of the world’s perception of their Year 2000 status. There is real fear of capital flight, loss of the revenue of tourism, and other similar impacts based on improper or misleading information. ...My fundamental position on this matter is that, in the global financial markets, no institution stands alone and is immune to the effects of the disruption of business transactions as they flow around the world. The source of such disruptions may be a result of Year 2000 -related problems in the financial sector itself or may also be caused by failures in the infrastructure that supplies power, water, communications, transportation, or any of the core social or business services. Furthermore, the Year 2000 computer crisis has both direct and indirect economic consequences for society and business. The direct consequences have to do with the ability of businesses to conduct business itself as the millennium approaches and is eventually upon us, subject to the disruption sources previously mentioned. The indirect consequences are what might be considered to be "second order" effects —--- these have to do with the impact on the business of the diversion of resources to work on the Year 2000 problem itself, in this era in which technology, business, and society are all tightly intertwined. Therefore, whether or not an organization believes that Year 2000- related computer problems will impact it internally, it is imperative that, in the context of its own safety and that of the global financial network, it assess its Year 2000- related risks and act to abate any identified. However, because this problem is unique in computing/business history, organizations must be prepared to deal swiftly and decisively with 3three risk categories of risks: …. Tthe "known knowns" —– those things they know they must address about the problem; the "known unknowns" –— those things they know that they don’t know about the problem, but are prepared to face; and the "unknown unknowns" —– those issues that have not yet been identified as even issues, but must be responded to when they arise... Concluding Comments The media and even analysts have pointed out similarities between the Year 2000 problem and recent events such as Hurricane Floyd. However, don’t get fooled into thinking that these events are really similar… they are not. Quite simply, when facing a hurricane we can board up and protect our homes with plywood. We are now faced with the potential, however low, for a global hurricane/cyberstorm for which we have been given a very long range forecast. But the problem is, that because of the very nature of this potential event, we do not know what the "plywood" is. I am truly hoping that the Year 2000 crisis will be a "non-event"…. Not because it is not real or was never real as some say, but because preparedness and communication have placed us in a position of readiness such that all risks imposed have been abated or mitigated as they arise. |
| 1999-10-15 | Ännu en varning från en programmerare |
...A prime example of the confusion that exists was reinforced this week with the latest announcement from the Financial Securities Authority (FSA) which has stated that it will expect banking and financial institutions to operate business as usual come the turn of the century. This news followed the revelations that all financial institutions had now been removed from the Governments 'danger zone.' Earlier this year reports were surfacing that at least one high-street bank was heading for a calamitous Y2K, but if the FSA is being straight with us, it would appear that has now been sorted out!
Studies from the US aren't exactly helping us come to any definite conclusions on the state of the world's Y2K efforts either. One day we are being told everyone's going to die, and the next that everyone is going to prosper from the expected Y2K economic boom! None of which is true you understand. Anyway the latest study from Weiss Ratings in the US reckons that a large proportion of sizeable companies are not sufficiently prepared for the date change. These claims are based on an analysis of Y2K budgets and precisely what portion of these budgets have been spent, in comparison to what should have been spent by this late time - so it is probably fairly accurate. The other problem however, is the number of companies that are finding their systems reinfected with date problems after Y2K remedial work has been completed. We haven't come across any studies to highlight this trend, and nor do we have any conclusive evidence to suggest that it is, but reports being fed to us suggest that a number of companies are suffering from a badly implemented Y2K policy. This isn't pure scaremongering, there is a real threat from re-infection and we are increasingly hearing reports of such occurrences. Not on a massive scale admittedly, but some companies that have gone back and checked their systems, after they had been corrected, have found bugs. Let's just hope this remains in isolated cases. |
| 1999-10-15 | Amerikanska Senatens skrämmande 44-sidiga y2k-rapport finns nu ute på nätet |
Rubriken lyder: Institutional Banking and Y2K.
Du behöver Acrobat Reader för att läsa dokumentet. |
| 1999-10-15 | CIA varnar: Ryssland och Kina bland de mest riskutsatta länderna i världen |
WASHINGTON (AP) - Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia are among the countries likely to suffer the greatest Y2K-related disruptions, but even well-prepared countries could import computer problems from other nations, a CIA official said today.
Lawrence Gershwin, the CIA's national intelligence officer for science and technology, told the Senate special Y2K panel that the United States will see few direct effects from Y2K problems abroad.
But computer crises overseas ``have the potential to involve U.S. military and civilian components in humanitarian relief, environmental disaster recovery or evacuations.''
Another leading Y2K expert, Bruce McConnell of the International Y2K Cooperation Center, warned that in many ill-prepared countries the real danger is not a sudden breakdown in power or phone service on Jan. 1, 2000, but a slow deterioration of services across the economic spectrum.
``What is likely in countries with numerous Y2K failures is a growing slowdown in commerce'' resulting in both degraded infrastructure performance and shaky consumer confidence, said McConnell, whose organization was founded under United Nations auspices and funded by the World Bank.
Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., who heads the Senate Y2K panel with Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, said that ``in the spirit of self-preservation, we are chiefly concerned with the potential for cascading failures which could land on American shores.''
The United States is thought to be leading the world in fixing problems caused by computers that read only the last two digits of a year and could confuse the year 2000, or ``00,'' for 1900. On the other end, many developing countries lack the money and technology to ensure that their basic computer systems will continue to function after the new year.
Gershwin, in a rundown, said Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia are among those facing considerable risk. Countries in Western Europe are better prepared, although there is a chance of significant failures in Italy, he said.
Areas of greatest risk in Russia and Ukraine are strategic warning and command and control, nuclear power plants, the gas industry and the electric power grid.
In the Americas, disruptions in basic public services including utilities, telecommunications, public health and social welfare are likely.
Oil and banking companies in the Middle East and North Africa have recognized the problem and are working to fix it, but government institutions, small businesses, the health sector and some public utilities are vulnerable, Gershwin said.
Gershwin said the United States is unlikely to experience a significant disruption in oil deliveries. The situation is somewhat more serious in Europe, which relies heavily on gas deliveries from Russia's Gazprom. Locally severe gas shortages may occur in Russia, Ukraine and in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, he said.
Och så här skriver Computer Sweden: CIA: Tyskland i riskzonen inför år 2000 (1999-10-14 17:09)
- Ryssland, Ukraina, Kina och Indonesien kommer troligtvis att erfara betydande år 2000-problem. Tyskland och Japan startade sina år 2000-förberedelser sent och befinner sig också i riskzonen, sade Gershwin. Kostnaden: 1 100 miljoner dollar
|
| 1999-10-15 | Bönder varnas för y2k-problem, men varningarna tas inte på allvar |
The Y2K bug also could hamper farmers and ranchers who use computers to keep their books.
``We are seeing the medium-size smaller operations that do have the older machines that would need to get up to speed,'' Adelaine said. Hansen said earlier workshops on Y2K have not drawn many farmers. ``We don't know if it's because they don't think it's a problem or if it's because they feel like they've fixed everything already,'' he said. He does not believe Y2K will cause the devastating problems, but said there's reason to prepare. ``There will be some problems,'' he said. ``We know that for a fact. It's just a matter of how severe they are.'' |
| 1999-10-15 | Ännu en ekonom förutspår global recession |
... och att delar av världen drabbas av depression. Aktiemarknaden i USA går ner minst 50%.
The U.S. economy is headed for a Y2K recession, and much of the world could face a depression, according to one economic expert. John F. Mauldin, investment analyst for ProFutures Fund Management and author of a book on Y2K investment strategies, is expecting a major recession in the U.S. and a depression in many other countries. He goes so far as to predict 20 percent unemployment in the U.S. after the first of the year and a drop of 50 percent in the stock market. Companies in many foreign countries are building large inventories of parts and supplies in anticipation of Y2K computer bug-related shortages at the start of the new year. The impact of laying in those inventories may cause layoffs, a recession in the U.S. and a depression in other parts of the world. The economic prosperity bubble is very fragile and doesn't need much pressure to pop. |
| 1999-10-12 | Oro för millennieskiftet driver upp norska räntor |
Marknadsräntorna har stigit 0.5 procentenheter på kort tid. Ursprungsartikeln på norska finns här.
Uncertainties as to whether chaos will usher in the new millennium are driving market rates up sharply. Money market rates in Norway have recently risen nearly one half percentage point, and one prominent reason is the Y2K spectre. “Mortgage rates may take a bit longer to subside,” says senior analyst Eirik Larsen of DnB Markets. (Verdens Gang) |
| 1999-10-12 | USA Today: Undersökning visar att företagens oro STIGER inför årsskiftet |
Det borde vara realistiskt att anta att i takt med att företagen arbetar med säkringen av sina system så minskar oron. Men så är det tydligen inte. Företagen blir tvärtom mer pessimistiska inför årsskiftet. Spricker bubblan nu?
Corporate Y2K fears rise Companies are less optimistic about possible glitches By M. J. Zuckerman, USA TODAY Corporate America is exhibiting nervous ticks and twitches as the year 2000 nears. For almost two years, companies made mostly rosy predictions about their ability to handle the Y2K computer glitch. But now, some of the nation's largest corporations are expressing reservations in quarterly Y2K status reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. There is near-universal acknowledgement that no one can identify every weakness that could cripple a computer system and, perhaps, a company, according to a USA TODAY review of SEC filings. The biggest fear: Problems that by themselves would be minor could trigger a domino effect with serious consequences. EDS, for example, says it is ready. But, the information technology firm adds, "There is a significant likelihood that non-EDS related Y2K problems will cause interruptions of the 'extended' networks utilized by EDS and other third parties." Simply put: A local phone line fails, and EDS starts losing clients. ..."These filings are neither basis for panic nor reason to be reassured," says Steve Hock, of Triaxsys Research, a consulting firm that analyzed SEC filings. Common themes Hock identifies five trends in the latest SEC disclosures, which reflect work completed through June 30: Domino effect. Companies are recognizing that there are likely to be failures resulting from the complex relationships of systems. Mobil Oil, for instance, says the failure of one or more systems that individually are minor could "trigger a cascade of other failures for year 2000 reasons, the combination of which could have a material adverse effect on Mobil's operations, liquidity and/or financial condition." Embedded systems. These are microchips contained in millions, perhaps billions, of products that may have some time-sensitive qualities. If they fail, they could trigger the domino effect. Enron, one of the world's largest suppliers of energy, admits that it, its suppliers and other firms on which it depends won't be able to find and fix all its embedded chips. The company warns: "Some of the embedded chips that fail to operate or that produce anomalous results may create system disruptions or failures. Some of these disruptions or failures may spread from the systems in which they are located to other systems in a cascade. These cascading failures may have adverse effects upon Enron's ability to maintain safe operations and may also have adverse effects upon Enron's ability to serve its customers." Supply-chain problems. The failure of a smaller provider to fix its Y2K problems could cripple a larger company. Philip Morris reports that it considers 700 of its 6,000 "key business partners" likely to suffer some Y2K failures. Upshot: "The possible consequences of these disruptions include temporary plant closings, delays in the delivery of products, delays in the receipt of supplies, invoice and collection errors, and inventory and supply obsolescence. Depending on the number and severity of disruptions, it is possible that the business and its operating subsidiaries could be materially adversely affected." Stockpiling. Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, for example, "has made the decision to increase inventories of certain key products in order to have additional finished stock in the event excessive consumer purchasing occurs in late 1999." Such stockpiling by companies could skew economic statistics and create the illusion of rapid economic growth. Replacing old systems. Hock says about 25% of companies are installing new systems rather than upgrading old ones. Those firms are "at terrible risk," he says. "Historically, 80% of technology projects that ultimately fail to make deadline are reported to be on time and trouble free just three months prior to" deadline. Reebok International has been overhauling its information technology worldwide and told the SEC it was relying on that conversion to protect it from Y2K. But in its most recent SEC filing, Reebok says that because of technical difficulties, it has decided to delay full implementation until after January 2000. The firm will address Y2K by modifying its existing software, a project it expects to have done this fall. But, Reebok warns, "There can be no assurance that its contingency plans will be sufficient to mitigate the impact of any potential failures." Time's running out Many companies also are saying there's more work than time remaining before the new year. The nation's 1,000 biggest companies, as ranked by Fortune magazine, report spending 77% of what they say it's going to cost to make them Y2K ready, Triaxsys says. "I'm not bothered by the company that reports it's 97% complete," says Hock. "But there are some chemical companies, for instance, that report spending as little as 33% of their Y2K budgets. Those are the ones I worry about." |
| 1999-10-11 | Många stora amerikanska telebolag ligger efter i 2000-förberedelser |
Weiss Ratings ger bl a MCI Worldcom, Bell Atlantic, Motorola och SBC Communications dåliga betyg. Fortfarande lugn inför årsskiftet?
PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 11, 1999--Many large companies in vital U.S. industries, including telecommunications, pipelines, and airlines, have received Y2K ratings of "low" or "below average," based on a study of their publicly disclosed Y2K budgets and expenditures by Weiss Ratings, Inc., the only provider of Y2K readiness ratings. -- In the telecommunications industry, 73.3% of the 19 rated companies were in one of these two categories, including MCI WorldCom (rated below average), Bell Atlantic Corp. (below average), and Comcast Corp. (low). |
| 1999-10-11 | Paraguay paralyseras år 2000? |
Det här är från Washington Post. Under hur lång tid kommer infrastrukturen i Paraguay att vara paralyserad? Om landet inte har hunnit förbereda sig till 1 januari, vad talar för att de lyckas åtgärda de problem som uppstår på bara några dagar? Totalt haveri i Paraguay kommer att spridas till grannländerna och sedan är den globala finansiella härdsmältan ett faktum. Och Paraguays situation är ingalunda unik.
First the computers will crash, bringing down the electrical grid, the water system and the telephone network. Then, nearly 200,000 government workers will discover the state-run bank that prints their paychecks has been crippled by technological glitches. Finally, a day or two later, crowds will riot and loot, forcing the government to declare martial law. To Walter Schafer Paoli, the Paraguayan government's year 2000 generalissimo, this is no science-fiction plot. Such bedlam, he says, is quite possible during the first days of January in this poor, landlocked South American country sandwiched between Argentina and Brazil. His manifest fear stems from a simple, alarming fact: The government has been woefully late in tackling the Y2K computer glitch. Most government agencies here only recently began the often-protracted chore of fixing their systems. And to make matters worse, members of a presidential commission set up in the spring to coordinate the repair efforts quit en masse last month, complaining that they were never given offices, a budget or payment for their services. Paraguay is just one of many developing countries that have been tardy in dealing with the Y2K bug. From sub-Saharan Africa to Central America, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, many nations have only just started to vigorously address the glitch, raising the possibility of disruptions in basic services. "It will not be possible for us to fix everything before January," said Schafer, a former computer magazine publisher who was tapped three weeks ago to replace the disbanded commission. "We need to prepare for problems throughout the country – with the telephones, electricity, water and other services our government provides." |
| 1999-10-10 | Yardeni ser fortfarande 70% sannolikhet för global recession med anledning av år 2000-problem | Dr. Edward Yardeni's senaste Y2K Reporter från den 11 oktober innehåller hans uppdaterade syn på de ekonomiska implikationerna av y2k. Samtidigt som han går från att vara en "Y2K alarmist" till att vara en "Y2K sceptic", som han säger, vidhåller han fortfarande att chansen eller risken för en global recession är 70%. Han ställer frågan till de som kallat honom för "doomsayer": "Since when has a recession been doomsday?" (Obs! Du behöver Acrobat Reader för att läsa dokumentet.) |
| 1999-10-10 | Var ska San Francisco-invånarna ta vägen? |
Det här är från stadens egen y2k-sida. Staden kommer att ha mellan en och två miljoner människor som deltar i millenniefirandet. Staden hoppas att den är klar med att åtgärda sina system inför årsskiftet. Oro uttrycks för vattenförsörjningen.
Whether the City would pursue a failure for an existing building under Y2K circumstances may be a case by case determination that would depend on the extent and duration of the failure. It is likely that the Fire Department would likely have other priorities in a large scale water supply failure in the short term. On the other hand, in the event of water supply failures it would certainly be prudent for building owners and tenants to evacuate a building that had no fire protection systems. Var ska dessa människor evakueras i så fall? Skulle avloppssystemet slås ut kan invånarna bara spola sina toaletter EN gång. Sedan måste lägenheter evakueras av sanitetsskäl: The Department of Public Health (DPH) also has enforcement authority where building sanitation systems are non-functional. DPH representatives have stated that their enforcement priorities would be food establishments, which could mitigate the problem with some contingency planning such as using disposable utensils; and residential buildings, which could mitigate potential problems through the use of Port-a-Potties. In the event of a water supply failure, there would be sufficient water in the plumbing in most cases for one last flush. After that, DPH has found that the need to evacuate a building for sanitary reasons is self-enforcing. Var ska i så fall dessa människor ta vägen? |
| 1999-10-08 | Ingen amerikansk hamn är ännu 2000-säker |
"The Great Depression", 1930-38, hade två huvudorsaker: deflation och handelshinder. Ändå var USA långt mindre beroende av utrikeshandel än vad landet är idag.
Idag importerar USA hälften av sitt oljebehov.
Vi står inte inför handelshinder. Vi står inför en situation där utrikeshandeln kraftigt hämmas eller helt upphör. Investerare bryr sig inte. Fondförvaltare tar inte med detta faktum i sina datorsimulerade prognoser om framtiden. Politikerna bara sitter där och stirrar. Ingenting händer. Det är bisarrt. Följande är från ett Senatsförhör från 28 september, 1999. ...We also share the Committee’s concern about international readiness. Over the past year, we raised concerns about Year-2000 readiness in the context of international air travel. With only 93 days to go, there is little time left to obtain credible information about Year-2000 readiness in the international arena. A major issue now facing FAA is what action, if any, it will take when a foreign country does not provide sufficient information for independent assessment. ...Port operations, such as crane movement and cargo transfers, are highly automated. There are over 300 U.S. ports, of which about 100 are managed by port authorities. The American Association of Port Authorities--an association of port authorities in North and South America--surveyed its members’ readiness, including 83 U.S. port authorities. Thirty-three U.S. port authorities reported they are making good progress. However, there was insufficient information as to when their work will be completed and how much traffic they handle for U.S. maritime commerce. The remaining 50 U.S. port authorities did not respond. Coast Guard also surveyed readiness of marine facilities located at U.S. ports. The response rate was 36 percent. More information about ports’ readiness, both large and small, is needed. |
| 1999-10-08 | Lager av kol byggs upp i Asien inför årsskiftet |
SYDNEY, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Huge industries across Asia are beginning to build stocks of imported coal to guard against Y2K computer problems blacking out cities and closing down production of everything from cars to electronics across the region.
...with all the major industrial centres of Asia apart from China dependent on imported coal, drawn mainly from Australia but also from Indonesia, South Africa, Canada and the United States, nobody is taking any chances... |
| 1999-10-08 | Är Japan verkligen starkt riskutsatt? |
Denna fråga tacklar japanen Hiro Ochi i en krönika på Year2000.com.
A most aggravating fact in Japan is that the prime minister, his cabinet members, all politicians, the governmental bureaucrats, the local governmental bureaucrats, so-called business leaders, etc., consider that their job is completed as soon as they issue a notice to prepare for Y2K to someone or they create a Y2K project team. They do not take any responsibility for the project at all. Nobody takes any responsibility for the Y2K problem. For instance, the Y2K advisory council under the Prime Minister does not have any authority nor does any member of this group need to take any responsibility for their opinion. In other words, there is no responsibility, authority nor accountability in this critical problem in Japan similar to any other situation. Can you believe that there is no ownership of a system in a large organization? Yes, you can, in Japan. There is no CIO in a Japanese firm. |
| 1999-10-07 | Myndigheter i USA skjuter deadlines framför sig |
Myndigheterna i USA spelar ett högt spel inför årsskiftet. "Människoliv står på spel," säger Senator. Och vad jag förstått av Statskontorets rapporter om framstegen i de svenska myndigheterna är situationen inte mycket bättre här hemma. Det här är förmedlat av Associated Press (AP):
Some states pushing up against the deadline 10/6/99 WASHINGTON -- With less than three months to go, several states are pushing up against the Jan. 1 deadline in their scramble to ensure Y2K computer problems do not disrupt basic public services, officials said at a House hearing Wednesday. The officials stressed that states generally have done a good job in either fixing computers or installing backup systems to prevent interruptions in such services as food stamps, Medicaid payments, unemployment benefits and child nutrition programs. "But some state completion dates are so close to the turn of the century that the risk of disruption to their programs is substantially increased," said Joel Willemssen of the General Accounting Office, the investigative wing of Congress. "Millions of American lives will be harshly disrupted if these vital programs fail," said Rep. Steve Horn, R-Calif., chairman of the House Government Reform subcommittee that has followed the Y2K problem. |
| 1999-10-07 | IT-folk och ledningspersoner skall ta ut pengar, enligt enkät | ORLANDO, Fl., Oct. 6 /PRNewswire/ -- A new CIO KnowPulse(SM) poll, conducted by IDG's CIO magazine, shows chief information officers (CIOs) and other business executives are planning to have significant amounts of cash handy on January 1, 2000. The majority (65%) of the 191 respondents plan to have more than $500 on hand, with 34% indicating they will have more than $1,000 and 8% indicating they will have more than $5,000. Further, 84% of respondents plan to have this amount in cash. "CIOs are closer to the realities of Y2K than any other group of people,"says Abbie Lundberg, Editor in Chief of CIO magazine. "While many of them have completed Y2K remediation for their companies and are confident of a Y2K fix, the fact that they are planning to accumulate cash shows there is still a level of doubt or concern." The poll of CIOs and other business executives was deployed October 3,1999, at a CIO Perspectives conference in Orlando, Florida. In addition to personal finance plans for Y2K, results also show overwhelming support (74%) for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to ground all air carriers that failed to respond to an FAA survey on Y2K readiness by October 5, 1999. (Lastweek, Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT), vice-chairman of the United States Senate's Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, proposed that these non-responsive air carriers should be grounded.) |
| 1999-10-07 | Mer matematik | Författaren till den här hemsidan laborerar med tanken att 1% av alla system kraschar som en följd av millennieproblematiken. Läsvärd uppsats! |
| 1999-10-07 |
Mörk bild av sjöfarten målas upp i Senatsförhör med industrirepresentant
Hur illa kommer egentligen världshandeln att drabbas??? |
Några nyckelord och fraser ur vittnesmålet:
1. significant potential for business disruption 2. action plans 3. identifying the potential problems 4. "Chain of Responsibility" 5. particular concern 6. good organization practices 7. untold hours 8. new and different relationships with vendors 9. members have cooperated 10. I believe these issues are well appreciated 11. enormously expensive 12. very concerned 13. there will be no partial victories 14. We will only succeed if everyone in every sector succeeds. 15. the matter is receiving attention at the highest level 16. We are truly all in this together. |
| 1999-10-07 | Y2K-matematik |
Om Företag A har 200 affärskritiska system och varje system har 3% sannolikhet att krascha av egen kraft, vad är sannolikheten för
att hela företagets verksamhet avstannar? A) 6%, B) 9%, C) 60% eller D) 100%?
Följ länken så får du svaret, samt möjlighet att laborera med sannolikhetssiffror. |
| 1999-10-07 | Illikvida marknader befaras 4:e kvartalet 1999 |
Volatila och illikvida marknader är inte att leka med...
Funds brace for volatile, illiquid Q4 after FOMC LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Global fund managers said on Wednesday they are bracing themselves for a volatile fourth quarter as Y2K wary financial markets now fear the U.S. Fed could raise interest rates again before the end of the year. The Fed said on Tuesday it had moved to a tightening bias, undermining hopes that the absence of a rate rise in October would mean rates were on hold until after the millennium, and its depressing effect on market liquidity, were out of the way. ``This is a signal to the market saying 'don't assume there is nothing going to happen until February,'' said Paul Griffiths, head of international fixed income with $10.5 billion under management for Invesco in London. ``That means uncertainty and the moment you have illiquidity and uncertainty the markets can go one way or another quite aggressively.'' With the markets being drained of much liquidity as investors turn cautious in the runup to the millennium, the additional uncertainty of Fed policy and timing could spark choppy trading on the world's bourses, fund managers said. LOW LIQUIDITY+FED UNCERTAINTY = VOLATILE MARKETS Many market strategists had hoped that no change in rates by the Fed in October would clear the way for moderate market gains in the fourth quarter, but now the outlook is far less clear. ``Liquidity conditions in the credit and fixed interest market are going to get increasingly difficult over the next three months and similarly in equities,'' Tim Wilson, global strategist at Newton Fund Management which has $27 billion under management. While low levels of liquidity are not inherently bad for stocks or bonds, it does lead to exaggerated price moves which could be magnified if investors become spooked by the spectre of Fed action. Fund managers said they see ``soggy'' trading in global equities for the rest of 1999, with many major players effectively sidelined. Already the interest rates banks charge each other are flagging a possible end of year liquidity squeeze, with investors placing a premium on cash to avoid possible market upsets. Three-month dollar London Interbank Offered Rates (LIBOR), which come due just after the turn of the millennium, are being offered at an interest rate of 6.16 percent, 66 basis points higher than two-month loans due in early December and seven basis points higher than four month rates due early in February. This puts the Fed in the uncomfortable position of having less control than usual over market interest rates. ``The market has changed the price of money in view of the risks of Y2K and the Fed will have less control over that now,'' said Bryan Allworthy, European equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. FED MAY STILL HOLD RATES 2000 While a Reuters poll found Wall Street firms were almost evenly divided about what the Fed would do at its November meeting, some fund managers see a pre-Y2K rate rise as still out of the question. Though a series of strong U.S. economic indicators could upset the balance and force its hand, the Fed may be satisfied to let higher U.S. long bond rates slow the economy for it and not seek to tread heavily on markets before the millennium. ``The market is saying it is concerned and the Fed is going to have to do its utmost to calm these markets,'' said Michael Lenhoff, global strategist at fund manager Capel-Cure Sharpe. |
| 1999-10-07 | RRV: Myndigheterna har dålig koll |
Det här är från IDG:
Oklar 2000-styrning i myndigheter (1999-10-06 16:02) Myndigheternas verksamhetsledningar har dålig koll på hur 2000-anpassningen går, anser RRV. Ledningarnas styrning och organisation av 2000-arbetet har stora brister. Det anser Riksrevisionsverket, RRV, som granskat hur 51 myndigheter bedriver arbetet med att säkra sin verksamhet inför millennieskiftet. RRVs granskning visar att hos mindre än hälften av myndigheterna har ledningen tagit del av någon form av dokumenterad projektplan. Beslut tas på fel nivå
- Myndighetsledningarna är ytterst ansvariga för att överblicka risker i verksamheterna och vidta åtgärder och därför har vi valt att granska ledningarnas engagemang i 2000-arbetet. Vår bedömning är att arbetet inte styrs på rätt nivå, säger Frank Lantz, ansvarig för granskningen på RRV. Han påpekar dock att granskningen inte gäller kvaliteten på 2000-arbete och RRV inte uttalat sig om enskilda myndigheters möjlighet att klara 2000-övergången. |
| 1999-10-06 | Ansedda programmeraren Roleigh Martin: Omfattande systemfel kommer att uppstå efter hand |
Y2K kommer inte att vara över på en dag eller två. Effekterna av övergången till år 2000 kommer att fortsätta i veckor och månader. Fel kommer att ackumulera. Det säger Roleigh Martin, en brittisk expert på inbäddade system.
Följande är från hans site på internet:
. . . The realisation that Y2K will not happen on 1.1.2000 is now beginning to concern many organisations. It is clear that the really major impacts (initial strike) may have already happened (ie decision to stockpile by many Pharmaceutical Companies); but that the consequence (harm or damage) will not be felt for several weeks or months. I expect to see an increase in Business failures in parallel to an increase in acquisitions and take-overs in November this will have an initial impact but resulting consequences on job and prices will not be felt until well into 2000. Some date related errors will have an impact and a consequence in January 2000. Many many errors will have an impact but only manifest themselves much later on in the year. The software date bug introducing a data error which may not surface for many weeks or even months. The recovery from many of these hidden date errors will be very costly and may result in many business failures during 2000. Organisations will see an increase in problems at day end, week end, month end and quarter end and when closing for the year end. Software applications run only occasional will be more prone to failure than those run daily. Some database and file recoveries will themselves fail. One might think the exception to all of this is the Embedded Systems problem. Well you could be right, however, here again many Real Time control systems may fail and cause production to halt or to cause errors in the production process. The most damaging failure from an Embedded System date related error might be the loss of a minor recording facility or alarm. We have seen several instances where monitoring fails on roll over to 1.1.2000 but with no noticeable consequence. For instance we have seen an example where an H2S sensor stops working this is only a problem when H2S escapes and is then not detected .... until much later. It is my guess that many embedded systems will fail silently with only negligible initial impact the later consequences might however be very serious indeed. Only a very few Embedded Systems are expected to fail the correction of these may take many weeks and may even require systems to be replaced rather than repaired. Again a delayed consequence will result whilst stocks are used up. Then there is the leap year -- where the only other notable date related major industrial loss had an initial impact on 29.2.96 but the consequences were not felt until 31.12.1996! Do not ignore history. . . . I have already made both the UK and US governments aware of my concerns not with the big bang failure of major safety systems but with the real and much more likely risk of minor Y2K failures in some instances causing a loss of a "systems" safety integrity. . . . |
| 1999-10-06 | Marknadsanalytiker funderar över investerarpsykologi, regeringarnas roll, banker, större globala spekulerare i dagens aktiemarknader och vad som kan hända med anledning av 2000-problemet | Läsvärt! |
| 1999-10-06 | Ologiskt |
80% av affärsmän anser inte att deras företag är 2000-säkrade ännu, men 90% tror att allt kommer gå bra. Hmm...
De har i en del fall jobbat med problemet i 4 år. Men det kommer att fixa sig ändå. Trots att omfattande tester uteblir under de sista tre månaderna. Hmm... Ironically, the polled experts' optimism extends to their vendors and suppliers. The experts believe that only 25per cent of their vendors are not ready for Y2K but they are taking it on trust - 69 per cent of large global companies simply sent questionnaires to suppliers and only 13per cent bothered to conduct on-site inspections. HMMM.... Det här är från The Age. Most of the world's top computer experts plan to stockpile food, water and cash before the Y2K bug bites. But they are putting everyone else off-guard, lulling people into a false sense of security with their complacency and slackness. Says who? The world's top computer experts, that's who. With less than 90 days to go until the clocks tick over to zeros, their "ill-preparedness, complacency and misplaced trust in suppliers" could be about to plunge business and consumers around the world into serious problems, according to the organisers of a global Y2K experts poll. Even though 81 per cent of the experts admit their organisations still are not ready for the date rollover, 91 per cent are still optimistic in their overall assessment of Y2K and, say the poll's organisers, the experts' complacency may be compounding broader complacency. Only executives involved in Y2K preparations took part in the poll and the results left the organisers in an unusual predicament when the outcome was revealed at a New York press conference yesterday. The experts' overall view is extremely optimistic even though their answers to subsidiary questions suggest they should be feeling the opposite because many of their organisations are not ready for Y2K, others are falling behind in readiness efforts, many have not made or tested contingency plans and most have not really checked on their suppliers' Y2K readiness. The results of the poll, conducted by CIO magazine, the Y2K Centre of Dr Ed Yardeni, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, and the Information Systems Audit and Control Association (ISACA) - a global information technology organisation with more than 20,000 members in 100 countries - almost left its organisers speechless. Dr Yardeni, one of America's foremost Y2K experts, said he was puzzled that IT professionals were so optimistic about the impact of Y2K on their organisations. "Many of them are not ready yet. They are clearly expecting a victorious outcome, which may be raising complacency levels so high that people will not prepare for any possible malfunctions and failures," said Dr Yardeni. Organisers admitted that the poll of 989 organisations around the world (including 26 in Australia and New Zealand) might have been skewed towards optimism because it was skewed to the United States (61 per cent of participants) as well as skewed to large organisations with more than 1000 employees (56.5 per cent) and the finance sector (23.4 per cent). But despite this, and results that looked promising at first glance because 74 per cent said they were between 76 per cent and 99 per cent ready for Y2K, said Dr Yardeni, ''the real shocker is that many organisations are falling behind schedule''. ''When the first poll was conducted in June, 52 per cent expected to be done by now and 16 per cent said they would need the fourth-quarter to become compliant. ''Now, 43 per cent say they will not be finished until the last three months so they're cutting it very close. It suggests there is significant falling behind and a lot of organisations are playing it very close to the deadline ... yet there is more optimism than there was in June,'' said Dr Yardeni. ''We're also disturbed to see more than one in five are still waiting for mission-critical software that is Y2K compliant and remember, programs still have to be installed and tested as well as delivered.'' That aspect in itself prompts worry, according to ISACA's Mr Michael Cangemi (who also is executive vice-president and chief financial officer of the Etieene Aigner Group). ''The industry knows that 78 per cent of the time, software is delivered late,'' said Mr Cangemi, ''so we're pointing out the experts' over-optimism without knowing why it exists.'' He's also really bothered by the poll's findings that one in three either are still formulating a contingency plan or do not have one, and a further 16 per cent have not implemented a plan that is ready. ''It's amazing that so few companies have contingency plans at this stage even though all of us share a concern that there will be some surprise problems that pop up at the end for which you cannot prepare contingency plans,'' said Mr Cangemi. His thoughts are echoed by CIO's editor-in-chief, Ms Abbie Lundberg, who is widely regarded as a leading expert on major technology and business issues and believes that even companies optimistic about their own preparedness should be contingency planning for problems with suppliers. ''Chrysler has 8000 outside suppliers and 2000 are mission-critical,'' said Ms Lundberg. ''General Motors closed 25 of its 29 assembly plants last year because there were strikes at two suppliers. That shows why people should be more involved in planning. ''Companies should be organising SWAT teams running scenarios and drills for contingencies because there's a large number of people who won't be completed by December 31st and our society is so interconnected it's inconceivable that there won't be interruptions to the flow of goods and services.'' Ironically, the polled experts' optimism extends to their vendors and suppliers. The experts believe that only 25per cent of their vendors are not ready for Y2K but they are taking it on trust - 69 per cent of large global companies simply sent questionnaires to suppliers and only 13 per cent bothered to conduct on-site inspections. Michael Cangemi says he is concerned that more companies are not verifying Y2K readiness. ''We (Etienne Aigner) are a vendor supplying approximately 70 major retailers and 1000 small retailers. I can tell you that the majority of our customers sent us questionnaires by mail. Only one major customer called to follow up on the information.'' Meanwhile, despite the optimism, the prospects for problems seem to be growing. A significant 30per cent of companies still have not completed their Y2K projects and are behind schedule, 12 per cent now do not expect to finish until after the date change and 27 per cent plan to finish their readiness in the next three months. Ms Lundberg says she is ''alarmed at the number of companies that do not expect to complete their Y2K work before the end of the year. Of those that do expect to finish in time, entirely too many expect to do so at the eleventh hour. Given the business world's abysmal track record for technology project delivery, this does not bode well''. Moreover, 40 per cent of companies believe between one and 10 per cent of their mission-critical systems might fail or malfunction as a result of Y2K and a small number think they will face failure of a large number of mission-critical systems. The bottom line for Dr Yardeni, who has long-worried about a Y2K-induced recession, is that ''I can't moderate my forecast after the latest poll results, though I was hoping to do so but I'm hoping the next and final poll (in November/December) will be supported by a fast dash to the finish line''. ''We're all hoping the experts' optimism is justified but this is a race we all have to win together, not individually.'' The bottom line for the experts might be a little different. The poll results show that their office optimism is mixed with some home realism. Only a small number expect the power to go off and the telephone to be out of order but well over half admit they plan to stockpile extra food and cash at home. |
| 1999-10-06 | Många företag har redan upplevt stora problem med y2k-omställning |
Den här informationen är ingenting som media bryr sig om att rapportera om tydligen. Cap Gemini står bakom denna rapport.
A chilling new survey reveals that not only are systems at most of the nation's largest corporations already failing due to Y2K glitches, but that few companies are optimistic they'll be ready in time for the century rollover. The survey, conducted by Cap Gemini America Inc. (New York), finds that 75 percent of the largest U.S. companies have already experienced a Year 2000-related date failure in their systems. Only about half of these companies (48 percent) expect to have all their critical systems ready when the Year 2000 hits, so they're preparing for the worst. |
| 1999-10-06 | Rysslands atomsäkerhet åter ifrågasatt |
Senator i tal till Senatens y2k kommitté: "Många tror att Rysslands åldersdigna reaktorer inte påverkas av övergången till år 2000. Det är fel".
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: The potential threats emanating from Y2K problems in Soviet-designed nuclear reactors is a third area of concern. Historically, safety mechanisms and procedures at these reactors are poor. The reactors suffer from deficiencies in design, operator training, and safety procedures. Reactor operators and support staff face low and erratic pay, training shortfalls, and deficiencies in safety procedures. Unfortunately, these problems are compounded by a very late start in preparing for the transition to thenew millennium by the states of the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe. Although neither a melt-down or a failure ofprimary safety systems is likely, it is in our interests to continue to work to prevent these potential threats. Many believe that Soviet-designed reactors are immune to Y2K-generated problems because they utilize older analog systems. This is incorrect. Digital overlays were installed to improve performance, monitoring,and safety response and are susceptible to Y2K problems. If these systems were to malfunction, operators could be blind to some reactor functions or receive erroneous data that could lead to improper actions. In U.S. reactors, this would not pose a problem because of built-in redundancy of our systems. Unfortunately, redundancy is notpresent in most Soviet-designed plants.Reviews of Soviet-designed reactor susceptibility to Y2K-induced problems revealed that host countries lacked the resources to conduct threat evaluations and significant safety issues were at stake.Officials of the Department of Energy worked closely with their counterparts to develop assessment guidelines in order to determine potential problems that might arise during the millennium transition.U.S. expert assistance was crucial in overturning initial complacencyexpressed by these nations. The Department of Energy played an important role in completing the detailed risk assessments of thevarious Soviet-designed reactors and providing assistance to begin remediation of hardware and software problems. It is clear that without the Department of Energy's efforts, the risks of an accident would have been much higher. Given the existing time frame, it is too late to fix every Russian system. Our efforts must continue to concentrate on reactor safety systems, contingency planning, and engagement with the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy on these subjects. Transparency and consultation in these areas are in U.S. interests. Furthermore, I believe our country must make every effort to warn Americans abroad, living or working near these reactors, of the problems they may face as a result of Y2K. |
| 1999-10-03 | Bundesbank trycker upp extra pengar - skyller på allmänhetens paranoia inför årsskiftet |
Y2K är inget problem för bankerna, säger den tyska centralbanken, Bundesbank. "Nope, no problem at all!" Det är allmänheten det är fel på, säger man. Det kan inte vara så att bankerna själva inte riktigt lyckats övertyga allmänheten om att deras system är helt säkra? Nej då, det är vårt fel. Ditt och mitt.
FRANKFURT, Germany (Reuters) - Bundesbank council member Edgar Meister on Thursday said that the greatest risks posed by the Y2K problem were psychological, now that the financial sector has completed a large number of tests and preparations. To help reassure the German public, the Bundesbank has enough cash reserves on-hand so that every German resident could withdraw an additional 3,000 marks around the end of the year, Meister said. "The remaining risk concerning the changeover into the year 2000 is in my opinion mostly psychological in nature," Meister said in the text of a speech. "Cash reserves at the Bundesbank now exceed the amount of cash currently in circulation," he said. He said financial institutions should not fear that the European Central Bank is unprepared for potential Y2K problems, Meister said. "Neither are there any liquidity bottlenecks to be expected in the refinancing facilities of the European Central Bank, due to the high reserves held in collateral that are available to German financial institutions," he said. |
| 1999-10-03 | Varning för kumulativ effekt! |
Det här är en krönika från PC-gurun Karl Feilder i Computer Weekly.
Varför är det så att folk tror att 2000-problemet försvinner så fort vi har passerat 1 januari? Varför tror folk att om företag har spenderat tre år eller mer på att förbereda sina system inför år 2000, att om/när problemen verkligen uppstår efter årsskiftet så kan de lösa problemen direkt eller på högst några dagar? Det verkar inte vara någon skillnad på Tre år eller Tre dagar... All over by New Year's Day? Don't kid yourself. You'll still be shell-shocked, dodging Y2K shrapnel, well into 2000 ... ...I received an e-mail. The US President has this week had his first face-to-face meeting with his head of Y2K. They have decided to create another Presidential Commission - this time their purpose is to man the telephones on 31 December and help people who have failed to do enough to prepare for the big one. And this week the Japanese, too, have set up their own midnight watchdog team. I mean, really, guys. Are you stark raving bonkers? Do you not understand this year 2000 problem at all? Obviously not. I met some of the sad IBM people who have been told to work shifts over the millennium. I advised them to take some drinks, turkey sandwiches and a television. I hope you see why I'm so irritated by this. Many companies - particularly those with mainframes - have been working on Y2K for three or more years. They have put in a mammoth effort to ensure that their code has been corrected. Just what can anyone do at Magic Midnight if they missed something during those three years? The answer is: nothing. Absolutely sweet FA. But worse is the implied logic, once again, that Y2K is
going to be all over on 1 January. This past week I met
Y2K action team members from two of the most
proactive governments in the world - and heard, with
total horror, that some of them think it will all be over
during the first week of January. They honestly think
that this problem is a discrete event.
Click! The clock ticks over to a new year.
Clunk! The computers either work or they all stop.
After all the information we have provided, after all the
assistance we have given - even these people have
failed to understand.
So, in case your company asks you to work over
millennium midnight, just tell them a few home truths.
* this problem will not occur at midnight. It is a
systemic failure which will only really cause
problems as the cumulative effects build up
* there is absolutely no point in you being in the
office at midnight
* your energy and tolerance as a skilled person
will really be put to the test in the weeks and
months following Magic Midnight, when users
become increasingly aware that they cannot
trust the output of their computers any more
|
| 1999-10-03 | Rysk naturgasproducent talar om att 3300 av 9000 ej 2000-säkrade system skall bytas ut inför årsskiftet. De övriga 5700 då? |
Gazprom. En av världens största naturgasproducenter.
Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom said Thursday that 9,000 of its 28,000 computers were not ready for the Year 2000 computer problem. Gazprom plans to replace 3,300 of the 9,000 computers by October, and to modify others that might cause problems in the new year, Gazprom said in a statement. . . . As many as 30 percent of Russia's power stations are gas-fired, all of them dependent on Gazprom, according to economist Denis Rodinov at the Moscow brokerage Brunswick Warburg. |
| 1999-10-03 | Sannolikt att ryska kärnkraftverk tvingas stänga vid årsskiftet |
Vintern är kall i Ryssland. I månader har vi fått höra att allt är bra och att inga 2000-problem finns i de ryska kärnkraftverken. Detta har vi fått höra av företrädare för kärnkraftverken själva. Självrapporterade uppgifter. Ingen kan riktigt verifiera. Den här nyheten visar att mjukvaran som kontrollerar härden i många fall inte är 2000-säkrad. Och sedan har vi Ukraina... De ska uppgradera sina system i november... Snacka om att spela rysk roulette!
All Soviet designed reactors have radiation monitoring systems that are known to be vulnerable to the Y2K bug. Also vulnerable are the plants’ security access systems and core monitoring software. If any of these systems fail, affected reactors would have to be shut down. If these problems are not fixed, Baker said, they could result in the simultaneous shut down of several nuclear plants, causing major disruptions of power supplies in the middle of winter. In 1997, the nuclear power plants in Russia produced 14 percent of the nation's electricity. In the far western parts of Russia, the share was nearly 25 percent. The Kola, Leningrad, and Smolensk nuclear power plants supply half of northwest Russia's electricity requirements. In 1997, Ukrainian nuclear power plants produced 47 percent of that nation's electricity. Dependence on nuclear power could put pressure on plant workers, utilities and government officials to keep the plants running, even without the plant process or other monitoring computers, which would create safety problems. In addition, if Y2K issues cause shutdowns in offsite power distribution systems, they could lead to reactor shutdowns even if the plant itself is working fine. Unless emergency batteries and diesel backup systems are working and have sufficient fuel, they might not be able to keep plant safety systems functioning after a loss of offsite power. |
| 1999-10-01 | "Herstatt Risk" |
Det här är ett dokument som nog bör tas på allvar. Framförallt av banker.
Multi-trillion dollar threat posed by Herstatt risk Recent research highlights the largest Y2K risk threatening institutional banks at the international level. The threat could be on the order of trillions of dollars. Most large banks have addressed Y2K compliance and feel secure about their internal systems and controls. There are, however, significant Y2K threats posed to institutional banking outside of the normal operational control of banks. Retail threats such as deposit runs are already being handled by national central banks regulatory authorities to varying degrees. Institutional banking and trading face different threats. ...Herstatt risk is rare, indeed, so rare that most bankers don’t know the term. The term, is derived from a single event, occurring in 1974, which after the closure of a German bank. This piece of economic trivia could become relevant in the coming months. Our estimates indicate Herstatt risk may be the most significant Y2K risk faced by the international banking system......... ...........there is a risk of financial gridlock due to Y2K related instability in these networks and deal flows. The chart, below, indicates the current institutional banking risk environment. Darker regions on the chart indicate greater threats. The most significant risk increase is seen in the multiple forms of operational risk. Moreover, because banks are closely intertwined financially with
each other through lending to and borrowing from each other, holding
deposit balances with each other, and the payments clearing system, a
failure of any one bank is believed to be more likely to spill over to
other banks and to do so more quickly. Default by one bank on an
obligation to another bank may adversely affect that bank's ability
to meet its obligations to other banks and so on down the chain of
banks and beyond. These cascading failures if unstopped put the
current global economic system at risk (p. 29).
Y2K will most likely shift many forms of institutional banking risk. The potential for financial gridlock due to Herstatt risk could involve trillions of dollars being stuck in systemic gridlock.
The potential for a situation similar to Bankhaus Herstatt in 1974 poses the most significant risk to the international monetary system seen to date.
Unfortunately, neither the BIS, IMF, Global 2000 Working Group, or The Worldbank has a fully international co-ordinated response policy for such situations.
Här är en nyhetsartikel som snappat upp ovanstående, med titeln "Y2K ett hot mot bankerna"...
|
| 1999-10-01 | Hälften av brittiska storföretag skippar tester |
Varför testa något som kanske (eller rent av sannolikt) kommer att påverka företagets överlevnad? Det kostar för mycket....
Nearly half of large UK corporates do not undertake any form of software testing when implementing new applications or changing existing ones, leaving them vulnerable to bugs. In research published today, market research firm Benchmark Research found that of 210 UK companies - more than half with an annual IT spend of over £1 million - only 51 per cent of them used testing procedures. Of those, 82 per cent still did all their testing manually, rather than using automated software tools. ...But it not just new systems that need to be tested the slightest alteration to existing systems, such as rewriting dates for the Year 2000 date change, also need to be tested. "We are telling our customers that they must test their systems," said Graham Titterington, senior analyst, at analyst group Ovum, "It is highly likely that Y2K work will have caused other bugs." |
| 1999-10-01 | "Whither the Dow" | Tog med den här länken för att det här var ett konstruktivt inlägg på ett diskussionsforum. |
| 1999-10-01 | Enkät avslöjar oförbereddhet och likgiltighet bland USA:s storföretag inför årsskiftet |
81% av större, globala företag är inte "y2k ready" ännu. Ändå är 91% av dessa företag optimistiska... Hmmm...
Y2K Experts Poll Exposes Incompletion and Complacency NEW YORK, Sept. 30 /PRNewswire/ -- The results from the second Y2K Experts Poll conducted by IDG's CIO magazine, ISACA and Dr. Ed Yardeni's Y2K Center exposes corporate ill-preparedness, complacency and misplaced vendor trust. Eighty-one percent of large, global companies polled are not Y2K ready at this time. In addition, 43% now predict project completion dates will move from the third to the fourth quarter of 1999, a significant increase of 27% since the first poll in June. In spite of the fact that 81% admit their organizations are not ready for the date rollover today, when asked about their overall assessment of Y2K compared to three months ago, 91% were still optimistic. According to Ed Yardeni, noted economic forecaster and Y2K expert, ``I am puzzled that information technology professionals are so optimistic about the impact of Y2K on their organizations. Many of them are not ready yet. They are clearly expecting a victorious outcome, which may be raising complacency levels so high that people will not prepare for any possible malfunctions and failures.'' The Y2K Experts Poll is a real-time snapshot of Y2K readiness among global, large firms with an average of 1,360 suppliers. The poll is developed and deployed by an informal public-interest coalition of CIO magazine, the Information Systems Audit and Control Association (ISACA), and Dr. Ed Yardeni's Y2K Center. The coalition members conduct the poll among Y2K experts in an effort to help the public and their policy officials assess the Year 2000 readiness of organizations around the world. The first Y2K Experts Poll was conducted in June 1999 and the results of the first poll and the current poll are compared in this release. ...Abbie Lundberg, Editor in Chief of CIO magazine, says she is ``''alarmed at the number of companies that do not expect to complete their Y2K work before the end of the year. Of those that do expect to finish in time, entirely too many expect to do so at the eleventh hour. Given the business world's abysmal track record for technology project delivery, this does not bode well.`` |