Russia | Economics |
Statistics and Econometrics | Political
Theory | Philosophy | Decision theory
| Various
Russia
Why (not) use the cultural approach? Review of
Tucker, Part II
Read Part I first. In part II: Why Lenin should not be viewed as a nice and patient tutor,
some good and bad points, and conclusion. (Review, 10 February 1998) (70b)
Why (not) use the cultural approach? Review of Tucker, Part I
Tucker wants to use the cultural approach as the main approach to understand Russian
history, and I disagree with him. Used as an explanatory variable, culture is not very
reliable. Tucker then argues the concept of culture can be rescued by using it as a frame,
but I failed to understand how. (Review, 5 February 1998) (70a)
Russians about Russians - A sample of views on cultural traits
What do Russians think is typically Russian? I present some of their views, and a few
relections on the quotations. The most interesting idea being that how you get your income
(how fast and by what kind of activity) also determines how you spend your money (what
kind of goods you buy and how fast you spend your money). (Observation, 1. May 1997) (48)
True and False at the same time? Russian religiousness and
statistical theory
Are the Russians more or less religious than, say, the Norwegians? And, is it possible
that the Russians are both more religious and more anti-religious than the
Norwegians? I argue that this is possible and I base this on the difference between
external and internal negation. I then try to speculate on the implications of this (with
litte success). (Observation, 9. April 1997) (44)
Reply to Egge's Comments on my review of his book on Russian
history
I admit it was wrong of me to label Egge's book as a whole "seriously
flawed." Yet, I still disagree with him on the substantial issues (the coup vs.
revolution and the circumstances vs. ideology debates). I also object to some of his
arguments - such as the review being "unacademic" or inspired by extreme
right-wing Americans - since these are not relevant to the truth-value of the statements
we are discussing. (Review, 8. January 1997) (33)
Click here to read Egge's comments on my review of his book (note: in
Norwegian)
How (not) to explain puzzling Russian behaviour - A Review of R.
Hingley's The Russian Mind
I express my doubts on using the psychology of a nation to explain the history or the
behaviour of a people. First, I doubt whether it is possible to prove that a nation has a
certain psychological trait. Second, I doubt the link between the trait and its claimed
consequences. Six concrete examples are discussed: Disproportionate reactions, absurd
propaganda, the idealisation of the peasants and the "going to the people" in
1874, lying for amusement, the show trials, and the totalitarian state. (Review, 6.
January 1997 ) (32)
How to measure degrees of democracy and causal importance? The
case of Czechoslovakia
I was recently made aware that my knowledge of Czechoslovakia around 1938 and 1948 left
much to be desired. This is a small effort to rectify the situation. First, I present a
factual overview. Second, I discuss the causes of the collapse in 1938 (arguing that
external factors were most important). Third, I question whether it is true that
Czechoslovakia remained democratic in the inter-war period (arguing that Czechoslovakia at
least does not qualify to be labelled undemocratic). (Observation, 20. December 1996) (31)
Dynamic counterfactual correlations
Some comments on B. Caplan's "The Mensheviks' Critique of Bolshevism and the
Bolshevik State". I mainly agree with his position (that the difference between the
Mensheviks and the Bolsheviks has been exaggerated), but I question the reliability of his
counterfactual analysis of what would have happened if the Mensheviks had been in power
instead of the Bolsheviks (Review, 14. December 1996) (30)
Testing cultural differences: Four experiments
Are the Russians more concerned about justice, more extreme in their belief-formation,
more risk-averse and less trustful than the people of other countries? I present five
experiments which could be conducted to test the reliability of explanations based on
these cultural traits. (Observation, 9. December 1996) (29)
The Blaming Game: Does Gorbachev deserve praise for the peaceful
end of the Cold War?
This observation is about some of the conditions under which a person deserves blame or
credit for an action. It involves Gorbachev, a man hitting another, and Calvin &
Hobbes. It is only a few reflections, not a systematic attempt to discuss all the factors
involved in the moral evaluation of actions. (Review, 23. November 1996) (27)
A Question of Style
A review of Arne Kommisrud's State, Nation, Empire: The Habsburg Monarchy, Tsar-Russia
and the Soviet Union. I focus on criticising his style which I believe seriously
weakens the book, despite the occasionally informative content. (Review, 18. November
1996) (26)
The Cultural Approach to Russian History - How reliable?
This is an updated version of a previous paper. In short, it is a long (20 pages) working
paper about the cultural approach to Russian history. The approach tries to explain and
predict the course of Russian history using cultural traits as explanatory variables. For
example, it is argued that there are cultural barriers which prevents the Russians from
creating a democracy and a market economy. In the working paper I try to examine the
reliability of these explanations and predictions. (Article, 9. November 1996) (25)
Rational Irrationality? Describing and explaining the extreme
right in Russia
This paper started as a review of Walter Laqueur's book Black Hundred and ended up
as a mixture of the mentioned review and some reflections on how to explain irrational
beliefs (Review/Article, 25. October 1996).
The Cultural Approach to Russian History - How reliable?
This is a large working paper about the cultural approach to Russian history. The approach
tries to explain and predict the course of Russian history based on cultural variables.
For example, it is argued that there are cultural barriers which prevents the Russians
from creating a democracy and a market economy. In the working paper I try to examine the
reliability of these explanations and predictions. (Article, 20. October 1996)
About confusing the explanandum and the explanans: Should
behaviour be included in the definition of political culture?
A review of Stephen White's book "Political Culture and Soviet Politics". My
main criticism is that White uses a wide definition of political culture which includes
features we want to explain, not describe, using the concept of political culture.
(Review, 26. September 1996)
What can we infer from a black square?
Subtitle: Religion as a cause of the distinctiveness of the Russian culture.
A critical review of Per-Arne Bodin's book "Ryssland och Europa" ("Russia
and Europe"). My main two criticisms: Speculative over-interpretations of evidence
and lack of focus on causal connections/rival approaches. (Review, 20. September 1996)
Culture and decision making: A review of an article by F. Gaenslen
A few reflections on one of the best articles I have ever read. Basically it uses
statistical analysis of 1000 conflicts described by 272 different authors to reveal
whether the American culture is more individualistic than the cultures of Japan, China and
Russia. (Review, 4. September 1996)
Norms and capitalism: How norms of fairness may inhibit economic
growth
Some people are unwilling to buy a good (even when the trade would increase their utility)
because they think the price is unfair. I then speculate whether these norms are stronger
in some cultures (such as the Russian) and if this could be a cause of slow economic
growth. (Observation, 20. August 1996)
The Russians
I present ten cultural traits that are supposed to be typical Russian. After examining the
use of discussing such traits, I briefly question their reliability. Lastly, I present two
methods for increasing the reliability of cultural explanations. (Observation, 27. May
1996)
Interpreting history
A review of Aa. Egge's book From Alexander II to Boris Yeltsin. I focus on two
questions. First, whether October 1917 was a coup or a revolution. Second, whether the
main causal factor determining the nature of the Bolshevik regime was ideology or
circumstances. (Review, 9. May 1996)
Human Nature and 2500 years of accumulated wisdom
A Review article of R. Pipes (1994): Communism: The Vanished Spectre (Review, April
22. 1996)
Organic explanations
A review of Z. Brzezinski (1989): The Grand Failure: The Birth and Death of Communism
in the Twentieth Century (Review, April 9. 1996)
Logical Logic?
A review of M. Malia (1994): The Soviet Tragedy: A History of Socialism in Russia
(Review, April 5. 1996)
Social science as correlation between vague macro-concepts
A critical review of L. Holmes (1993): The End of Communist Power: Anti-Corruption
Campaigns and Legitimation Crisis (Review March 23. 1996)
The Soviet system and model building
This paper complements and overlaps with the paper "Sovietology: Why the totalitarian
model is the best" (Article, March 1. 1994)
Sovietology: Why the totalitarian model is the best
The title should be self-explanatory. I did quite a lot of reading and thinking for this
paper and I since I am still interested in this I would like to receive comments on it.
(Article, October 1. 1993)
Four distinctive aspects of Soviet and Russian Military Thinking
This is not a very original paper since most of the arguments are collected from various
books. However, it represents an attempt to make this information available in a more
systematic form. (Article, September 9. 1993)
Economics
Not bad, but more popular than it deserves: A Review of
Kindleberger's "Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises"
Although this bok is informative and suggestive I felt the reasoning was slightly ad
hoc. Moreover, alternative theories of crisis were not compared and tested in a
systematic fashion. (Review, 6 October 1998) (81)
Entertaining and suggestive about the business cycle - Review of
Lars Tvede: Business Cycles: From John Law to Chaos theory
This is a good book but a bad review. The book is good because it contains a wealth of
mechanisms that might help explain economic fluctuations. The review is bad because it
does not go deep enough, it is not critical enough and the structure is flawed. (Review,
16 September 1998) (80)
Arguments searching for proofs: A Review of Galbraith's A Short
History of Financial Euphoria
This book is good in the sense that it suggests some potentially important psychological
mechanisms that create financial disasters. The verdict, however, is not only favourable
since the suggested mechanisms are not empirically proven. (Review, 9 September 1998) (79)
Explaining the appeal of protectionism: From mercantilism to
today's popular opinion
This is a follow up on "Why don't people believe free trade is good" using
historical sources to document the four psychological mechanisms that I think are
important (zero-sum bias, money fetishism, indirect links and focal points). (Article, 11
August 1998) (78)
Searching for the surprising and reliable truths: A review of
Schelling
A good argument should be non-obvious, important, and reliable. Thomas Schelling's Micromotives
and Macrobehaviour comes close to this ideal. The main focus is on how different
individual motivations interact to produce macro outcomes. (Review, 18 June 1998) (77)
Principal-agent theory: What happens when we have lazy,
risk-averse and dishonest people who know more than us?
This week I present yet another example of models in economics. After presenting the best
possible contract under symmetric and asymmetric information, I speculate whether the
results show that private property is a good thing. I am sorry if the papers the last
three weeks have been too mathematical for some of you. I will return to my regular
"verbal" presentations soon! (Observation, 19 March 1998) (74)
Cooperatives: A short model with surprising implications
As promised last week, here is another example of formal reasoning in economics. This time
the question is what happens to the optimal number of workers in a cooperative when the
price of their product increases. As last week, I will base my observation on notes from
K. O. Moene (University of Oslo). (Observation, 9 March 1998) (73)
Pay according to need or effort? About models in economics
For some time I have intended to examine the value of models in economics and the best way
of doing so - I think - is to start by presenting some models. In this review I want to
examine a model by Amarthya Sen which tries to clarify the problem of pay according to
need or effort. The model I will use is a simplified version of Sen's which was developed
by K. O. Moene. (Observation, 3 March 1998) (72)
Justifying the welfare state: Biased but useful (review of Barr)
This is a useful book since it is clear, systematic and rigorous. It is biased because it
leaves out certain arguments and are more critical of opposing arguments than arguments in
favour of the welfare state. Included in the review: A mathematical model of the
non-linear cost of taxation and an appendix with a model of the insurance market,
including the problem of adverse selection. (Draft review, 27. November 1997) (67)
The assumption of rational selfishness - How can it be justified?
When should it be rejected?
The answer depends on your aim (to explain, predict, or aid policy formation).
Justifications are: High value on parsimony and reliability when explaining; that
predictions based on "as-if" rationality are more accurate than the
alternatives; that the policy of changing the incentive strucure has a more certain and
greater effect than attempts to change attitudes. Ultimately the question of rejecting the
assumption it is an empirical matter. (Observation, 17. November 1997) (66)
What is economics? A method or a topic?
Should economists try to explain suicide and other non-economic phenomena? Should
economists worry more about norms and sociological theories in general? Who should study
the formation of beliefs and preferences - economists or psychologists? (Article (draft),
18. October 1997) (63)
Why don't people believe that free trade is good?
I discuss four mechanisms that distort our beliefs about free trade: Zero-sum bias, Money
fetishism, Concentrated costs & distributed benefits, Short run vs. Long run
confusion. (Observation, 13. September 1997) (62)
Right, Left or Meaningless
A review of Robert J. Barro's Getting it Right. I focus on three issues: Barro vs.
Krugman (on supply-side economics, monetary expansion, and inequality),
state-intervention, and meaningless quantification. (Review, 26. August 1997) (61)
Economic sense and non-sense: A review of Krugman's Peddling
Prosperity
A short reflection on three topics discussed in Paul Krugman's Peddling Prosperity:
Was Keynes right about the nature of recession? Why do bad economics appeal to
politicians? Why some common impressions about the economy are wrong. (Review, 14. July
1997) (59)
Words, Figures or Mathematics - A review of Rødseth's Consumer
Theory
As an introduction to standard neo-classical consumer theory, this is a very good book.
However, it also exemplifies the problems of this approach: its excessive emphasis on
mathematics, and the consequent focus on technical as opposed to substantive issues.
Included in this review: A worked example of Cobb-Douglas preferences. (Review, 12. May
1997) (51)
Pushkin or Baumol - Poets, Economists and Contestable Markets
The poet Pushkin knew about contestable markets long before the economist Baumol.
Moreover, Pushkin's description of contestable markets fits the real world more than
Baumol's theory. (Observation, 5. May 1997) (49)
Visual econometrics - A review of Wonnacott and Wonnacott
This is a good book which deserves a new edition to cover some recent developments. I give
a detailed critique of their treatment of autocorrelation, and I speculate on whether MAD
estimators - Minimization of Absolute Deviations - are better than OLS? (Review, 25. April
1997) (47)
About reviewing econometric textbooks
In short: clarity of explanation, rigour, completeness, honesty about the limitations of
econometrics, and style. (Observation, 25. April 1997) (46)
Non-utopian utopians? John Roemer's Coupon System
The second version of a review of John Roemer's A Future for Socialism. I try to
criticise his plan for reforming society by pointing to some weaknesses concerning
efficiency, liberty and risk. I also discuss some insights such as the concepts of
social-republican property and psychologically stable systems. Thanks to Steven Jay
Blatt for interesting comments on the first draft of this review (Review, 8. April
1997) (43)
Profit maximizing publishing - A review of Coase's Essays on
Economics and Economists
Coase is an economists I admire, but this book failed to live up to my expectations. The
topic of several papers were rather uninteresting, and some of the other essays contained
arguments that are (too?) well known. (27. March 1997) (42)
Why (dis)belive rational expectations? A review of Sheffrin's Rational
Expectations
Sheffrin is good at summarizing material, but I am less convinced by his arguments in
favour of rational expectations. In addition I try to play the role of the devil's
advocate to find some weak points. (7. March 1997) (41)
Investments and Psychology: Why not all profitable investments
are exploited right away
In short, because people are irrational and want to see a few changes every year instead
of one year with many improvements and then none the next years (Observation, 23. August
1996).
A Good Monopoly: An anecdote about lukewarm showers and market
structures
I use Hirschman's arguments from his book "Exit, Voice and Loyalty" to
illustrate a concrete example in which a monopoly gives better results than a duopoly
(Observation, 23. August 1996)
Norms and capitalism: How norms of fairness may inhibit economic
growth
Some people are unwilling to buy a good (even when the trade would increase their utility)
because they think the price is unfair. I then speculate whether these norms are stronger
in some cultures (such as the Russian) and if this could be a cause of the slow economic
growth. (Observation, 20. August 1996)
Inflation: An overview of theories and solutions (Article)
This paper is best suited for undergraduates who want a short, non-technical overview of
theories of, and solutions to, inflation.
Unemployment: Micro- or Macro-theories? (Article)
This paper is not the best I have ever written and it should not be read as
a general overview of unemployment theories and their weaknesses. The reason why I have
published it here is that it includes an attempt to distinguish between micro- and macro-
theories which I still think is valuable.
Statistics and Econometrics
Visual presentation of non-linear correlation in n-dimensions: A
speculation
Is is possible to visualize more than three dimensions, and would this be useful?
(Observation, 19 February 1998) (71)
Advanced Econometrics for beginners - A review of Maddala
Introduction to Econometrics is a comprehensive and critical treatment of standard
and modern econometrics. Its main strength is the presentation of recent developments in
econometrics in terms accessible to advanced undergraduates (cointegration, exogeneity,
model selection). However, it is too advanced to be used as a book for beginners.
(Included in the review: An example of error correction models.) (Review, 19. May 1997)
(52)
Critical Statistics - A Review of "Statistical Concepts and
Methods" by Bhattachryya and Johnson
The authors' extensive use of real-life examples, and the excellent exercises, makes this
a very good book for an introductory course in statistics. On the negative side, I
emphasise its somewhat over-detailed explanations of basic concepts - which in turn makes
this a rather long book. I also criticised the book for not being good enough at fostering
a critical attitude toward statistical methods. (Review, 7. May 1997) (50)
Visual econometrics - A review of Wonnacott and Wonnacott
This is a good book which deserves a new edition to cover some recent developments. I give
a detailed critique of their treatment of autocorrelation, and I speculate on whether MAD
estimators - Minimization of Absolute Deviations - are better than OLS? (Review, 25. April
1997) (47)
About reviewing econometric textbooks
In short: clarity of explanation, rigour, completeness, honesty about the limitations of
econometrics, and style. (Observation, 25. April 1997) (46)
More on internal and external negation. A follow up
What is the opposite (the negation) of "I am a Christian?" Is it "I am an
atheist", "I am an agnostic" or "I am a Satanist"? Moreover, what
is the practical importance of making the distinctions (or failing to do so)? Can we use
this to explain and maybe cure some psychiatric problems like paranoia? (Observation, 19.
April 1997) (45)
True and False at the same time? Russian religiousness and
statistical theory
Are the Russians more or less religious than, say, the Norwegians? And, is it possible
that the Russians are both more religious and more anti-religious than the
Norwegians? I argue that this is possible and I base this on the difference between
external and internal negation. I then try to speculate on the implications of this (with
litte success). (Observation, 9. April 1997) (44)
What should we believe? A reflection on the flawed use of
traditional hypothesis-testing
I argue against the distinction between significant and insignificant in statistics using
two concrete examples. First, whether the Americans have different attitudes than the
Russians. Second, if you should believe in rational expectations. (Observation, 1.
February 1997) (37)
Three statistical examples: Boeing, sex and education
This is a follow up on last week's How many examples do you need to make
generalizations. I give three more examples involving Boeing airplanes, sex among
Christians and how educational achievement is related to the number of books in your
family. (Observation, 27. January 1997) (36)
Bees, marbles and generalizations based on one example: A
reflection on the concept of statistical significance
How many examples do we need before we can make a reliable generalization? I give two
examples - involving bees and marbles - which point to different conclusions. This makes
me conclude that the answer depends on the context i.e. our background beliefs about how
things are causally related. (Observation, 17. January 1997) (35)
Against correlation (Article, 15.04.96)
I try to categorize the problems of using statistical correlations as the basis of belief
formation.
Political Theory
Is ethnic conflict the outcome of individually
rational actions?
A critical examination of three "big" theories that have been used to explain
why people cooperate in groups (selective incentives, reputation in dynamic games of
incomplete information and a preference for cooperating) and two small mechanisms supposed
to explain ethnic violence (uncertain balance of power and the impossibility of making
credible promises to minorities). Conclusion: Rational choice alone does not explain
ethnic violence. (Article, 22 May 1998) (76)
Twisting the concept of rationality to fit collective action in
ethnic conflicts
This is the draft of a review of a book that I regret spending so much time on. In short,
I felt that Russell Hardin's book One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict was both
confusing and often wrong. Two major criticisms are: A too wide definition of rational
behaviour and not enough attention to emotional factors (Review, 2 April 1998) (75)
How vague may a theory of justice be?
This is a reflection on the criteria for a good theory of justice using Rawls as a
starting point. I want a theory of justice to give clear and concrete answers to the
question "What is just?" in as many situations as possible. Second, these
answers must be good, defined here as intuitive, feasible and stable. Measured aganst this
I find Rawls theory restricted, vague, sometimes counter-intuitive, demanding too much too
be feasible and unstable since people may well break the contract as soon as they know
their own position in society (Review, 5. November 1997) (65)
Nationalism: Is it definable, important and worthy of attention?
A review of Walker Connor's Ethnonationalism: The Quest for Understanding. I find
nationalism both roughly definable and important, but I am less certain about the
reliability of explanations based on nationalism and even more so of the utility of
stydying nationalism to find good and feasible policy recommendations (Review, 10.
December 1997) (68)
Lessons from History: The collapse of Communism and the end of the
Cold War
This is a revised version of a lecture I gave at the Red Cross Nordic United World
College. Somewhat over-ambitiously, I try to provide a few interesting points on four very
big questions: Capitalism vs. Socialism, Democracy vs. Authoritarianism, Free vs. Managed
trade, and Realpolitik vs. Idealpolitik. I also discuss whether it is possible to
"learn" from history. (Lecture, 18. August 1997) (60)
Economic sense and non-sense: A review of Krugman's Peddling
Prosperity
A short reflection on three topics discussed in Paul Krugman's Peddling Prosperity:
Was Keynes right about the nature of recession? Why do bad economics appeal to
politicians? Why some common impressions about the economy are wrong. (Review, 14. July
1997) (59)
The pros and cons of state intervention
I review Robert Skidelsky's book The World After Communism. The book deals mainly
with two issues. First, why did people believe in the idea of state intervention (or
collectivism, as Skidelsky calls it). Second, is state intervention good or bad. I argue
that the first part is better than the second. (Review, 30. June 1997) (57)
A Neutral State?
A political party in Norway recently called for reduced support of private schools.
However, when the delegates discovered that their "own" private schools would be
hurt, they wanted to change the resolution so it would only apply to the schools they
disliked. I was greatly provoced, but more reflection revealed the complexities of
demanding state neutrality. (Observation, 26. May 1997) (53)
Non-utopian utopians? John Roemer's Coupon System
A review of John Roemer's A Future for Socialism. I try to criticise his plan for
reforming society by pointing to some weaknesses concerning efficiency, liberty and risk.
Despite this, I belive this is a book worth recommending and I also discuss some insights
such as the concepts of social-republican property and psychologically stable systems.
(Review, 20. February 1997) (39)
Social engineering and rational choice theory
I discuss how Jon Elster's proof that it is sometimes impossible to act rationally (even
when we want to) affects the argument that predictable social engineering is possible.
(Observation, 10. June 1996)
Should historians make ethical judgements?
I discuss a fundamental disagreement between historians (such as Edward H. Carr and
Richard Pipes) on how to approach history: the dispassionate and the ethical approach. I
argue in favour of the ethical approach. (Observation, 3. June 1996)
A review of Reviews: Making Sense of Marx (Review, 06.05.96)
I try to review Jon Elster's book Making Sense of Marx. There is little new here
for the "expert", but the review might be of value for an undergraduate who
wants a short introduction and critique of Marx (especially his theory of history and
critique of capitalism).
Philosophical Papers
More on internal and external negation. A follow up
What is the opposite (the negation) of "I am a Christian?" Is it "I am an
atheist", "I am an agnostic" or "I am a Satanist"? Moreover, what
is the practical importance of making the distinctions (or failing to do so)? Can we use
this to explain and maybe cure some psychiatric problems like paranoia? (Observation, 19.
April 1997) (45)
Why unfalsifiable theories are also worth considering (Observation)
In short because they may still (sometimes) be judged more or less probable
Two approaches to explanation: Verstehen or Correlation?
(Article)
This paper contains a sympathetic and critical discussion of Jon Elster's discussion of
functionalism. The reader should be warned that this was one of the first serious papers I
wrote on methodology. Both my views and the quality of my arguments have changed,
hopefully to the better, since then.
Three arguments about rational choice theory in sociology
(Article)
This essay does not present any new and revolutionary ideas. It is probably best suited
for undergraduates who simply want to read a short paper about rational choice in
sociology.
Decision Theory
General Introduction
The questions I intend to explore in these papers
How bureaucracies waste resources - And how it could be avoided
A short piece starting with a news-story of a patient who received more in compensation
for travelling expenses to a far-away hospital than it would cost to buy the dialysis
machine he needed. (Observation, 10. February 1997) (38)
Culture and decision making: A review of an article by F. Gaenslen
(Review, 4. September 1996)
A few reflections on one of the best articles I have ever read. Basically it uses
statistical analysis of 1000 conflicts described by 272 different authors to reveal
whether the American culture is more individualistic than the cultures of Japan, China and
Russia.
Social engineering and rational choice theory
I discuss how Jon Elster's proof that it is sometimes impossible to act rationally (even
when we want to) affects the argument that predictable social engineering is possible.
(Observation, 10. June 1996)
The fallacy of black and white arguments
I start with the question of how much a person should get in compensation after being
fired (for invalid reasons). I conclude that some arguments are fallacious because they
fail to consider marginal effects. I have to admit that this is rather obvious,
hence I do not think this is a paper worth spending too much time on. (Observation, 20.
May 1996)
Externalities, bureaucracies and tradable budgets
(Observation, 29.04.96)
Bureaucratic structures create externalities, thus there is a need to integrate them. Here
is an example.
Counterproductive (Observation)
Why do many plans turn out to have the opposite of the intended effects?
The information required for perfect prediction (Article)
I identify eleven categories of information required for perfect predictions in the social
sciences.
Backward Induction, the false counterfactual and terrorism
(Observation)
What should a person who always believe he is wrong believe?
Various Papers
Using popularity as a judge of quality - The year in review 1997
Here is a list of the twelve most popular papers, a list of some papers that I though were
OK (not always the same as the most popular papers), some thoughts on why the two lists
diverge, and reflections on this page in general (Observation, 22. December 1997) (69)
The criteria for good academic work - 1996: My aim and the year in
review
A good piece of work should be surprising, convincing, important, honest and well written.
In expanding on these labels, I shall also try to comment on some of my own works from
1996 in order to see where I can improve. (3. March 1997) (40)
Evolution or Creationism: Does science and religion compete in the
same arena?
I venture into the unknown to review Richard Dawkins' book River out of Eden: A
Darwinian View of Life. I was pleasantly surprised to find a well written book which
destroyed some of my somewhat unconscious beliefs, but I also found Dawkins anti-religious
emotions a bit too strong and - closely related - his scientific optimism slightly
exaggerated.
The themes
Economics fluctuations
• Explanation, benchmarks, Bayes rule and logical impossibility:
Notes related to economic fluctuations
• Psychology and economic fluctuations: Pigou, Mill and Keynes
• More popular than it deserves: A Review of Kindleberger's
"Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises"
• Entertaining and suggestive about the business cycle - Review
of Lars Tvede: Business Cycles: From John Law to Chaos theory
• Arguments searching for proofs: A Review of Galbraith's A
Short History of Financial Euphoria
Formalism in economics: Models
• Rent seeking, social waste and economic models
• Principal-agent theory: What happens when we have lazy,
risk-averse and dishonest people who know more than us?
• Cooperatives: A short model with surprising implications
• Pay according to need or effort? About models in economics
Words, Figures or Mathematics - A review of Rødseth's Consumer
Theory
Rationality, decision-making
• The assumption of rational selfishness - How can it be
justified? When should it be rejected?
Politics:
State-intervention, justice, rights, paternalism
• How vague may a theory of justice be?
• The pros and cons of state intervention
• Anti-Justice: Cold, No exclusive priority, Self-defeating
• A Neutral State?
• Non-utopian utopians? John Roemer's Coupon System
• Justifying the welfare state: Biased but useful (review of
Barr)
Economics, General
• Definitions of economics: A short and uncritical introduction
• Explaining the appeal of protectionism: From mercantilism to
today's popular opinion
• Searching for surprising and reliable truths: A review of
Schelling
• Justifying the welfare state: Biased but useful (review of
Barr)
• What is economics? A method or a topic?
• Right, Left or Meaningless: Barro (1996)
• Economic sense and non-sense: A review of Krugman's Peddling
Prosperity
• Five short ideas: Nurses, Keynes, Hirschman, Popper and
Akerlof
• Pushkin or Baumol - Poets, Economists and Contestable Markets
• Non-utopian utopians? John Roemer's Coupon System
• Profit maximizing publishing - A review of Coase's Essays
on Economics and Economists
• Why (dis)belive rational expectations? A review of Sheffrin's Rational
Expectations
• How bureaucracies waste resources - And how it could be
avoided
• The NAIRU approach to unemployment: An application for a Nobel
Prize?
• Investments and Psychology: Why not all profitable
investments are exploited right away
• A Good Monopoly: An anecdote about lukewarm showers and market
structures
• Norms and capitalism: How norms of fairness may inhibit
economic growth
• Externalities, bureaucracies and tradable budgets
• Inflation: An overview of theories and solutions
• Unemployment: Micro- or Macro-theories?
What is economics?
• Definitions of economics: A short and uncritical introduction
• What is economics? A method or a topic?
• Searching for surprising and reliable truths: A review of
Schelling
• Profit maximizing publishing - A review of Coase's Essays
on Economics and Economists
Economics and psychology
• Why don't people believe that free trade is good?
• Pushkin or Baumol - Poets, Economists and Contestable Markets
• Investments and Psychology: Why not all profitable
investments are exploited right away
• A Good Monopoly: An anecdote about lukewarm showers and market
structures
• Norms and capitalism: How norms of fairness may inhibit
economic growth
Rationality, Decision-making, infinite regress
• Critical reflections on Elster's arguments about the
impossibility of rational collection of information: Infinite regress and problems of
estimation
• How much information should you collect before making a
decision?
• Decision making and infinite regress: More complicated than I
thought is was!
• Is it logically possible to make a rational decision? Optimal
collection of information and "as-if" arguments
Yearly Reviews
• 1998: The year in review: Which questions are worth asking and
answering?
• Using popularity as a judge of quality - The year in review
1997
• The criteria for good academic work - 1996: My aim and the
year in review
Ethnic conflict and violence,
nationalism
• Is ethnic conflict the outcome of individually rational
actions?
• Twisting the concept of rationality to fit collective action
in ethnic conflicts (Review of Hardin)
• Nationalism: Is it definable, important and worthy of
attention?
General, various
• Lessons from History: The collapse of Communism and the end of
the Cold War
• The value of fictional literature for the social sciences - A
case study of Gogol's Dead Souls
• Five short ideas: Nurses, Keynes, Hirschman, Popper and
Akerlof
• Evolution or Creationism: Does science and religion compete in
the same arena?
• How to measure degrees of democracy and causal importance? The
case of Czechoslovakia
• A Question of Style
• Should historians make ethical judgements?
• A review of reviews: Making Sense of Marx
Philosophy of science, methodology
• Why unfalsifiable theories are also worth considering
• Two approaches to explanation: Verstehen or Correlation?
• Three arguments about rational choice theory in sociology
Elster
• Critical reflections on Elster's arguments about the
impossibility of rational collection of information: Infinite regress and problems of
estimation
• A review of reviews: Making Sense of Marx
Statistics: Review of textbooks
• Advanced Econometrics for beginners - A review of Maddala
• Critical Statistics - A Review of "Statistical Concepts
and Methods" by Bhattachryya and Johnson
• Visual econometrics - A review of Wonnacott and Wonnacott
• About reviewing econometric textbooks
Russia, reviews
• Interpreting history: review of Aa. Egge
Russia, general
• Reply to Egge's Comments on my review of his book on Russian
history
• Dynamic counterfactual correlations
• The Blaming Game: Does Gorbachev deserve praise for the
peaceful end of the Cold War?
• Rational Irrationality? Describing and explaining the extreme
right in Russia
• Should historians make ethical judgements?
• Interpreting history: review of Aa. Egge
• Four distinctive aspects of Soviet and Russian Military
Thinking
Russia: Political Culture
• Political culture as an explanatory variable - A (very) brief
historical overview
• Why (not) use the cultural approach? Review of Tucker, Part II
• Why (not) use the cultural approach? Review of Tucker, Part I
• Why culture should not be treated as a residual: Positive
proof vs. Proofs by default
• The value of fictional literature for the social sciences - A
case study of Gogol's Dead Souls
• Culture - An explanatory variable or an interpretive approach?
• Russians about Russians - A sample of views on cultural traits
• True and False at the same time? Russian religiousness and
statistical theory
• How (not) to explain puzzling Russian behaviour - A Review of
R. Hingley's The Russian Mind
• Testing cultural differences: Four experiments
• The Cultural Approach to Russian History - How reliable?
• About confusing the explanandum and the explanans: Should
behaviour be included in the definition of political culture?
• What can we infer from a black square? Religion as a cause of
the distinctiveness of the Russian culture
• Culture and decision making: A review of an article by F.
Gaenslen
• The Russians: Ten cultural traits
• Four distinctive aspects of Soviet and Russian Military
Thinking
Russia, Collapse, Models
• Human Nature and 2500 years of accumulated wisdom
• Organic explanations: Review of Z. Brzezinski
• Logical Logic?
• Social science as correlation between vague macro-concepts
• The information required for perfect prediction
• The Soviet system and model building
• Sovietology: Why the totalitarian model is the best
Decision-theory, Statistics, Formation of beliefs, Spurious
correlation, Probability
• More on internal and external negation. A follow up
• The fallacy of black and white arguments
• Counterproductive
• Backward Induction, the false counterfactual and terrorism
• Why unfalsifiable theories are also worth considering
• True and False at the same time?
Russian religiousness and statistical theory
• What should we believe? A reflection on the flawed use of
traditional hypothesis-testing
• Three statistical examples: Boeing, sex and education
• Bees, marbles and generalizations based on one example: A
reflection on the concept of statistical significance
• Against correlation
• The information required for perfect prediction