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 Rewriting HistoryIn 2003, the NCAA will put a stop to the preseason football games. It actually appears to be a decision for the good of college football as a sport, and for the good of the already-overworked athletes who are the sport's bread and butter. In other words, it was the first decision made that might affect negatively the NCAA and its member intitutions' bottom lines negatively. Of course, it doesn't help the fans much. I'm all for more, more, more. I can't wait for the seasons when 12 games will be allowed, so that we can renew the Florida-Miami series again. That series was put on hold, tantalizingly for Hurricane fans, with UF leading the series by one game and the Canes entering their most successful period in their history. But for a little while, the preseason games are with us. But what would this season be like if the preseason games weren't with us? Often, our impressions of certain teams are colored by what happens early in the season, even if some teams (I'm looking at you, Tennessee) always seem to benefit from early-season amnesia. Other teams aren't so fortunate. Here's a look at some of the teams that would be most affected if the August football games had never taken place:
So Texas stands at 6-2, drifting in the polls between 10 and 20, effectively out of the national championship picture and an afterthought in the minds of college football fans and commentators. Rewrite history, erase August, and you've got a 6-1 club with an outside shot of beating Kansas State in the championship game rematch, and playing itself back into the national championship picture. The miscue in the opener, in fact, is reminicent of the Texas A&M-Florida State preseason game last year, without which the Aggies would have been a possible championship-eligible club themselves.
But look how much perspective is shaped by the game in August, over an Ohio State team that is certainly good but is, at the same time, hardly great. Erase August for a moment. Pretend preseason games are illegal. Here's the schedule: Miami wins, at home, over Division I-AA FAMU. They choke at the end of the Penn State game in a stadium where it used to be you could forget about beating Miami in the fourth quater. The Canes then bring choking to a new level by getting drubbed by East Carolina in the second half. Sure, East Carolina has a good club this year, but they are a Conference USA team, after all. After a week off, the Hurricanes then get their annual spanking from Florida State, even without Peter Warrick. Finally the Canes beat a I-A team, but it is lowly Boston College, and they are thoroughly dominated for 3 quarters. That would make the Hurricanes 2-3, with their only wins against Boston College and FAMU. In the Canes case, I think they deserve to be considered a pretty solid team. But without that first week, the perception might be that of a team that will be lucky to go to a bowl game, rather than a good team in difficult circumstances.
But it certainly wouldn't be so bleak without that preseason competition. Here's history as rewritten: Arizona survives a scare from TCU, but it is their first game and it is on the road, so it is forgivable. With a 2-0 record, the Cats get shocked by Stanford. But Stanford eventually turns out to be the probable Pac Ten champ, so maybe that's forgivable too. Another winning streak, and Arizona is 5-1, facing a game against Oregon. That contest, for the second year in a row, turns out to be a Pac Ten classic, and though Arizona ends up on the short end of the stick, it was a valiant 44-41 fight. True, at 5-2, the Wildcats would still be considered a bust, but with their high preseason ranking, I'm betting they would be ranked about #16 or #17. Instead, they are 5-3 without a single qualtiy win outside of Southern Cal at home, and are held up as the most disappointing team in the game.
But strip away that opening game, and the picture is not so optimistic. The Pack would then be 4-3, needing 3 wins in their remaining schedule (at Georgia Tech, vs. Maryland, at North Carolina, at East Carolina) to become bowl-eligible. North Carolina State's four wins would be against William & Mary, Clemson, and Duke (a struggle), and South Carolina, and none of their losses were close (42-11 vs. FSU, 31-7 vs. Wake Forest, 47-26 vs. Virginia). Instead of being a 5-3 giant killer on the fringes of a top 25 birth, they would be a 4-3 disappointment heading towards their worst year in recent memory.
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Texas was stunned at home in August, 23-20, by North Carolina State. Here's what has happened since then: Major Applewhite has become one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the nation, the Texas defense has tightened up, the Horns have found a ground game, and a trip to the Big Twelve Championship Game now appears likely. In September, the Longhorns were 4-0, trouncing likely Pac Ten champ Stanford, 69-17 and winning three easy contests against Rutgers, Rice, and Baylor. In October, the Longhorns battled Kansas State early before losing decisively 35-17; but remember, Kansas State looks like the class of the North and is in the national title hunt. Texas then blew out an Oklahoma team that has since blown out Texas A&M in a 38-28 win, and then beat #3 Nebraska in a tight grudge match, 24-20.
Miami embarassed Ohio State 23-12 at the Meadowlands and effectively kicked off its Return To Prominence Tour, 1999. The Hurricanes are viewed by fans and media alike as a gritty, talented team that has been victimized by a horrendously difficult schedule (with losses at the hands of the current #1 and #2 team in the country) and bad luck (injuries to key personnel and a hurricane-induced rainout of an easy victory vs. Temple). The 'Canes were still in the poll last week with a 2-3 record, and were lauded this week on the SJS College Football Extravaganza for their come from behind win on the road.
Here's a case where the preseason game didn't jackass a team so much as revealed them for what they are. You have to think it woldn't have been so bad later in the season, and it wouldn't have been so awful at a neutral site, but the 41-7 loss to Penn State in week 1 was one of the most memorable butt-whippings in 1990s college football. Arizona now stands as an embarassment to yours truly, and hardly top 25-worthy.
We return to the 23-20 North Carolina State win over Texas to see how the other half has progressed from that preseason upset. The Wolfpack are 5-3, and it would not surprise me to see them edge their way back into some people's top 25s. A bowl bid, despite the disappointing season, is a strong possibility (but 6-6 will not do it due to a I-AA win). Furthermore, their reputation as giant-killers is firmly intact, with wins over Syracuse, Florida State, and now Texas in the past three seasons.
Florida State opened the season against Louisiana Tech, and beat them pretty handily. What's interesting about this game, though, is it wasn't supposed to take place. Florida State had been scheduled to play Auburn, but Tommy Tuberville and Auburn University backed out after the firing of Terry Bowden. Auburn is playing better football this year than expected, but Florida State would have beat them into the ground badly. With Kansas State, Virginia Tech, and Penn State all looking to go undefeated, every BCS point counts. And I'm betting a Seminole win over Auburn would help a lot more than a win over Louisiana Tech. We shall see.