 The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Last season, a particularly bad loss by a I-A team to a I-AA team prompted me to write a commentary called "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly," in which I analyzed the good (undefeated) teams, the bad (winless) teams, and the ugly games (losses by I-A teams to I-AA teams). My job is considerably easier this year, since last season's commentary came in early October, when there were still 16 teams without a loss and 10 without a win. Also, despite the extra weeks, we only have 6 games to highlight in the ugly column, though of course there were plenty of ugly losses (Wisconsin vs. Cincinnati being the prime example) that don't fit the definition of ugly for this piece.
The Good...
At the beginning of the year, I forecast that 3 teams would go undefeated, and at this point, I think that number is looking very, very good. And unlike my picks for a perfect regular season last year, this time I even have one opportunity to be right (Florida State). My other guesses, Arizona and Miami, OH, will finish a handful of losses below my forecast. From most likely to least likely, here's the teams that can finish unbeaten in 1999:
Team: Virginia Tech (7-0) |
| Likelihood: Probable |
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In a year when the national media is bemoaning the lack of a dominant team, the Hokies may be overly praised for the ease with which they have dispatched their foes. Virginia Tech's average win this year is 41.4 to 9.3, extremely comfortable. And with big time performers like quarterback Michael Vick and lineman Corey Moore, it isn't too hard to think of the Hokies as top 5 material. At 7-0, Virginia Tech faces four more games: at West Virginia, home against Miami, at Temple, and home against Boston College. Sure, the Canes and the Eagles are the toughest tests the Big East has, and Morgantown is not an easy venue, but it is fair to say that Tech will be the prohibitive favorties in each contest. As bad as their schedule is, the two teams above them in the polls both face difficult end games, so a championship game birth is about an even odds proposition right now. If Virginia Tech gets that opportunity, then the weakness of their schedule won't matter, and we'll see how they measure up against the traditional powers.
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Team: Marshall (8-0) |
| Likelihood: Probable |
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Marshall's road isn't as easy as you might think. The Thundering Herd have easy games at Kent and home against the Ohio Bobcats, but the sandwich game is at Western Michigan. The Broncos have a terrific offense; it is fair to say Marshall's defense, while very good, hasn't really faced an aerial attack the likes of which Gary Darnell's team will bring. Further complicating matters for the Herd is the MAC championship game, which will very likely place them in a rematch with those very same Broncos. I don't believe college football has ever seen a rematch game so close in time before, so the psychology of that situation is unprecedented. Still, Marshall has handled its two toughest tests: on the road against Clemson (where Florida State found it difficult to play) and the intra-divisional game against talented Miami of Ohio. Marshall's average win is 39.4 to 8.5. Bob Pruett has his team in great shape for an undefeated season, a fitting end to Chad Pennington's college carreer. I say it is probable.
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Team: Penn State (9-0) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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The Nittany Lions have looked dominant some weeks and pedestrian on others. The team would be a lot better off if they had one clearly good quarterback; but unlike other schools using two quarterbacks (Michigan, Ohio State), one of their signal callers always seems to step up on any given day. Plus, the Lions may be the team in the country most able to win even when their quarterback doesn't have a good day. Whenever their backs have been against the wall, against Miami, Purdue, and Pittsburgh, the Nittany Lions seem to pull through. The local media is so enamored with this 1998 Tennessee-like escape artistry that they've been dubbed the Team of Destiny. More opportunities loom for them to need a great escape with a game against Michigan and on the road at Michigan State, but the mid-season fumbling of these Michigan schools tips the scales in the Lions favor. Joe Paterno has no end of great play makers, on both offense and defense, and despite perhaps the game against Pitt, his team has always looked ready to play.
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Team: Florida State (9-0) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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The Seminoles have two games left: a home game against Maryland and a road game against Florida. Objectively speaking, they should be favored in both of those games. The Florida match up, the more dangerous of the two, may even look less threatening given the fact that the home win streak is over, and the Gators have looked pretty unremarkable in recent wins against Auburn, LSU, and Georgia. Objectively speaking, though, the Noles should have won in Gainesville in 1997 and 1991 too. And the Gators should have won in Tallahassee in 1994 and 1996. What should happen doesn't always happen, for many reasons. For one, the game almost always means something. The players and coaches hold nothing back. And besides that, they are both such talented teams that there is never really that big a gap in talent. This year, the Noles come in having played poorly on defense in some games (though usually not in the second half), and poorly on offense in several. People in Gainesville keep waiting for the Gators to finally fire on all cylinders; people in Tallahassee are waiting for the same thing from the Noles. If we are lucky, we'll be treated to that game in November, a game that will rival 1997 for good play and excitement. A blow out-- on either side-- is possible, and sadly, a game marred by penalties, turnovers, and sloppy play is also possible. In other words, anything, including the Noles' chance to go 11-0, must be graded as "Possible".
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Team: Kansas State (8-0) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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If Kansas State's schedule weren't so damn pitiful, we'd be talking about the Wildcats as one of the great stories of 1999. Instead, they've been all but ignored, because no one seems to know what to make of them. David Allen still makes big plays, quarterback Beasley has stepped in for a departed superstar without a hitch, and the defense looks true to Wildcat form. Even though Kansas State has pounded opponents 332-89, their only good win was against Texas, a team capable of playing very well or very poorly. The Cats play an uneven Colorado team, on the road against an offensively punchless Nebraska, and finish the year against Missouri, which, like the Wildcats themselves, have been resilient in the face of key graduations. All the games are winnable, as is the Big Twelve Championship game, which would likely be a rematch against Texas. But given the doubts about Kansas State, it is also not a stretch to see them lose any one of those games. The jury is more out on Kansas State than any other undefeated team in the land.
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Team: Mississippi State (7-0) |
| Likelihood: Unthinkable |
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Florida State and Penn State have looked less than dominant, and Kansas State, Virginia Tech, and Marshall haven't played big time competition, but Mississippi State has been the most fortunate of all. Needing some referee mistakes and lucky comebacks, football fans keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. Maybe it won't, like it didn't for Tennessee last year, but State looks to all the world like Arkansas or UCLA last year. Not to say that the Bulldogs aren't a solid SEC team. They are. But heres the remaining slate: against Kentucky, at Alabama, at Arkansas, and home against Mississippi. Every game is against teams with a similar talent level except Alabama, which, if Alexander and Zow are healthy, is clearly superior. And if by some miracle State can run the gamut, they would face another more talented team in Florida in the SEC championship. It would appear to be just too tough a road.
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Conclusion: The most likely BCS championship game is Penn State vs. Virginia Tech, but if Florida State can beat Florida, they should get the Sugar Bowl bid over the Hokies. Tech and Marshall seem to be a lock to go undefeated, though stranger things have happened, of course.
...The Bad...
Back in August, I made the prediction that two teams would finish the season without winning a single game: North Texas and Eastern Michigan. Neither pick was correct; North Texas even scored a much-ballyhooed upset against Texas Tech. But three schools could make that dream come true. Here are those teams, along with their chance to go winless:
Team: Rutgers (0-8) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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The Knights have had injury problems, true, but mostly they have talent problems. With games against Syracuse and Miami of FL left, they would need a minor miracle to finish 2-9. The chance to go 1-10 looks to be just less than 50-50, with a game upcoming against the Naval Academy. True, the Middies played Notre Dame tough last week, but just two weeks ago gave up three fourth quarter touchdowns to lose to Akron. Rutgers likely doesn't have the comeback power of Notre Dame or even Akron, but if the Knights can somehow get an early lead on Navy, a win might just be in the cards. |
Team: Buffalo (0-8) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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Most people's preseason number 114, I gave this first year I-A school a little love in forecasting a 2-9 mark. I thought the Bulls could split their two games against Division I-AA teams and pick up a conference win against Northern Illinois. Well, the Huskies blew them out, like most teams have done (Buffalo is 96-313 in points for and against). The first I-AA opponent on their schedule, UConn, blew them out as well (23-0). That game was on the road. The Bulls finish the year at Virginia and at Miami of Ohio, games that call for an upset of miraculous proportions. But there is one hope: I-AA Hofstra visits Buffalo. Don't scedule the victory parade yet, though; Hofstra is 7-1 and is probably the better team. But it might always snow.
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Team: South Carolina (0-9) |
| Likelihood: Probable |
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Lou Holtz came to Columbus to do the unthinkable: turn the Gamecocks into a winner. Well, he looks to be a lock to do the unthinkable: no SEC team has ever gone 0-11. But when South Carolina lost to Vanderbilt 11-10 in October, the prospect of an 0-11 finish moved from possible to probable. South Carolina and Vanderbilt seem to have switched personalities. Vandy typically has had a solid defense, no offense, and finished 6th in the SEC East. Carolina had a good offense, no defense, and finished 5th. Now the Gamecocks can play D but can't score to save their lives. And 6th is assured. And 0-11 is assured, unless they can beat Florida, in the Swamp, or Clemson, at Death Valley. Ouch.
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Conclusion:South Carolina is almost a mortal lock to go winless, and both Rutgers and Buffalo are on the side of likely.
...And The Ugly
Here is a list of Division I-AA wins against Division I-A opponents, from most to least
surprising:
| Furman 28, North Carolina |
| Troy State 31, Cincinnati 24 |
| Northern Iowa 36, Ohio 21 |
| Western Illinois 27, Northern Illinois 21 |
| Troy State 48, Middle Tennessee State 31 |
| Connecticut 23, Buffalo 0 |
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