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 The Bandwagon: A Riders Guide"Come on aboard/I promise you you won't hurt the horse/We feed him well, we treat him well/There's lots of room for you on the bandwagon" -REM A great man (but rather average picker) once said "You have to know when to get on and when to get off the bandwagon." This sage advice from ROBERT has bailed me out on more than a few occasions, but it is not always easy to tell how far that bandwagon is going to go before it gets derailed. With this year's college football landscape littered with upsets and crazy changes in fortune, the bandwagon road map is as discolored and convoluted as Jimi Hendrix's left arm during the Summer of '69 (sorry, I was invaded by the spirit of Dennis Miller for a moment there.) So here's a rundown of which way the wagon runs, with the signals turning red, yellow, or green: Clemson. All Aboard! The Tigers are for real, and on both sides of the ball. Their average score this year is 48-10. Woody Dantzler has turned into a reliable, even spectacular, performer, and Tommy Bowden is a miracle worker. You'll want to step off the bandwagon when it arrives at the Tallahassee station, but get right back on it when it leaves and stay on it until the BCS game. Florida State. All Aboard! Worried about Chris Weinke's ankle? Worried about Clemson, Miami, Florida? Stop your worrying and cling to this bandwagon with all of your might... cause that sucker is speeding toward the Orange Bowl and a repeat national championship. North Carolina State. Disembark. The Wolfpack are a surprising 4-0 with an offense that is scoring 38 points a game. But remember that this is the same team that upset FSU in 1998 and went on to lose to Baylor, then scored a major upset at Texas in 1999 and went on to get crushed by Wake Forest. They are the opposite of a bandwagon team... no flow. The wagon will break down eventually, and worse for us pickers, it will do so at unpredictable times. Virginia Tech. All Aboard! How can this team be so good? They lost so many players to graduation and the NFL, and the Hokie program is not noted for its depth. But the team is solid again if the defense can gel. Still, I have no advice for what to do when the bandwagon stops in Miami. If the Hurricanes can score as many points on the Hokies as Boston College did (34), then the Hurricanes win. Pittsburgh. All Aboard! (But look for your stop) The Panthers are 4-0 and looking good. Every once in awhile, they get a good offense in Pittsburgh, but this year it is the defense allowing just 10 points a game. Stay on the bandwagon. Get off of it when you know you should (Miami, Virginia Tech), but resist the urge to disembark out of reflex (Syracuse, North Carolina, West Virginia). West Virginia. Disembark. The Mountaineers are off to a 3-1 start out of the gate and looking to erase memories of last year's 4-7 debacle. Not so fast, my friend. Maryland was over-rated, and the win over Boston College was an early-season aberration. Their ground game is over-rated and the quarterback needs a lot of work. Resist the temptation to mount the wagon (Notre Dame, Syracuse, East Carolina, Pittsburgh); even Idaho may prove to be a struggle. Ohio State. All Aboard! (But look for your stop) I'm a believer. I really trashed this team in my preseason picks, because I had no faith in the Buckeyes at quarterback. But in a weaker-than-expected Big Ten, Ohio State ends up with one of the better teams. They have another great defense. Now it is true that they haven't played anybody yet, because Penn State isn't anybody this year, but don't let that comfort you. Ohio State has as good a chance as anyone of making the Rose Bowl. But there are too many bandwagon teams in the Big Ten, so you'll need to disembark now and then. Wisconsin. All Aboard! Huh? Here's a team that struggled in every game and has now dropped two in a row. But don't forget, Wisconsin comes on strong and late. And they steal conference titles after being written off. They may not have that kind of magic this year, but they do have the magic to go 7-0 or 6-1 down the stretch. Why? The defense is getting better and matches up better with the upcoming teams, Brooks Bollinger is ready to find last year's form, and Michael Bennett is a real deal running back. Northwestern. All Aboard! (But look for your stop) Wow, I'm shocked! In my preseason top 115, I intimated that Northwestern was on my 0-11 watch list. Now they look certain to reach a bowl game, and with two of their toughest opponents defeated (Wisconsin and Michigan State), they don't sound too silly talking Big Ten title. They can win or lose any game left except that they are all but certain to beat Iowa. Be cautious. Expect one more upset and two more close calls. Minnesota. All Aboard! (But look for your stop) Ditto here. Like Northwestern, the Gophers looked horrible once (TCU for Northwestern, Ohio for Minnesota), but have shown flashes. Like Northwestern, the Gophers have found a servicable quarterback, a solid defense, and a great running back. Like Northwestern, the Gophers have another upset left in them (the Badgers). The other stops are easy to make: stay on at Penn State, get off at Ohio State, back on at Indiana, Northwestern, and Iowa, and wow! another 8-3 tilt. Purdue. Disembark. Drew Brees stays in school, the Boilers have true playmakers on defense, and... get thee off that bandwagon. The Boilers can't win the close ones this year, for whatever reason, and many more close ones loom. In fact, the schedule shows no letup, and a 4-7 or 5-6 season looks possible. Michigan State. Disembark. I love T.J. Duckett. And that's all the love I have for the Spartans. State gutted out impressive wins against Marshall and Notre Dame, but these guys don't have the strength to go the distance, with a Purdue-like schedule to close out the year. There probably exists a low-tier bowl for Michigan State, but don't expect another January 1 win. Illinois. Disembark. Kurt Kittner is not Kurt Warner. If Kittner can stay healthy, Illinois will score points, but the Illini do not have the magic of 1999. Don't expect them to get upset, but don't expect any upsets from them, either. Northwestern and Minnesota are your lower division Big Ten teams with chances for upsets, not Illinois and Michigan State. Texas Tech. Disembark. A lot of people were looking at former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Mike Leach to come in and bring offensive fireworks to Texas Tech. After a 4-0 start, many more were jumping on that bandwagon. The Webmaestro knew better. (Hey, when you are picking 59%, you crow about your successes.) Tech has played a Kansas State schedule and has only averaged 23 points per game over their first five. The Red Raiders perennially overacheive, but expect them to live up to expectations and no better this season. But keep this bandwagon in mind; Leach will bring good football to Lubbock in time. Kansas State. All Aboard! Kansas State has also played a Kansas State schedule, but their average score is 51-10. How does Bill Snyder recruit to Manhattan, Kansas? His run may be one of the most remarkable in NCAA history... this program is historically the worst in Division I-A, prior to Snyder's arrival. I'm not quite ready to say this bandwagon will be parked outside of Joe Robby Stadium in January, but I'm almost there. They have everything you could want, and Nebraska might be overhyped. And the Cats have a two game regular season: at College Station and home versus Nebraska. Iowa State. Disembark. Look who's 4-0. Look who plays Nebraska next. Look who Iowa State has played. The Cyclones are definitely better these last three years, and they've certainly gotten the upper hand in-state, but don't expect them to tear down any goalposts this year. Texas. Disembark. This is not a bandwagon, this is a sinking ship. The Captain doesn't seem to have his faculties in order; he keeps letting the cabin boy steer the ship. When will the mutiny occur? Probably after Oklahoma sends a cannon ball through the hull this week. If only the Captain knew he's outranked by a Major, the story would be different. Did Mack Brown promise Chris Simms the chance to be a 4-year starter as part of a recruiting sweet-talk? If so, then the state of Texas hasn't seen that kind of irresponsibe recruiting since Southern Methodist made Craig James' recruiting weekend look like a cast party Jack Horner might have thrown in Boogie Nights. (There's Dennis Miller again). Oregon. All Aboard! The Ducks are in the middle of a brutal 3-game stretch, and they've won the first two. Joey Harrington is a good quarterback, and the defense found an answer for shifty Washington quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo. The Quack Attack is by no means done. They probably should have scored a win over Wisconsin; that game suggests you may not want to take this bandwagon on the road (both Washington and UCLA were in Eugene). But the green and gold may be the surprise best team on the left coast. Oregon State. All Aboard! (But look for your stop) The Beavers had me worried when they struggled with New Mexico in the opener, but New Mexico may be an upper-division Mountain West team this year, and running back Kenny Simonton looks like the best back in the Pac Ten. Oregon State is not done surprising teams, but they aren't going to win the conference either. Stay vigilant and be ready to get off. The time might be just as the bandwagon picks up steam. That's what ROBERT meant by his esoteric advice. Southern Cal. Disembark. No schools generate more undue excitement than Notre Dame and Southern Cal. The Trojans skied in the polls after a 3-0 start, but much of the bandwagon's momentum was thanks to the Penn State push. The kinetic energy from that thrust has certainly disippated into more heat than light now. (That sentence is Pulitzer-Prize worthy to a chemist.) Unfortunately for the Trojan faithful, expect another fumble finish. Maybe a mid-tier bowl, but that at best. Florida. Disembark. It's time to remove UF from the lock category. In fact, given the surprising losses of Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia, it is pretty clear that there is parity in the Southeastern conference this year. Every game for Florida will be a test. The Gators are lucky to get LSU at home (Tennessee lost there on the road), but that may not help when Auburn comes to town. The Tigers were the first SEC foe to win in the Swamp in the Spurrier era. Georgia, Florida State, and even South Carolina will be tough games to win. Don't get me wrong, the Gators will not fold their tents and go home, but there aren't going to be any easy answers to their defensive struggles. It is time to win shootouts. That, at least, they are still capable of. South Carolina. All Aboard! (But look for your stop) The Gamecocks are really in the same boat as Florida, with the difference that no one will bat an eye if UF beats Georgia, but if South Carolina rolls over Tennessee, some may be surprised. But the Lou Holtz bandwagon may indeed be headed that way. Don't let South Carolina's loss last week cause you to jump ship too quickly... they have another surprise left in them. It may even be my poor Gators. Georgia. Disembark. Not that the Bulldogs are going to fumble their way through the season, just let me caution you not to read to much into their pasting of Arkansas (at Arkansas, a very tough place to win). Don't think that Florida and Tennessee have left the door wide open for Georgia to slam. Look for Georgia to reach the door, fumble for their keys, check the address and find they're at the wrong house. (Dennis Miller on a very bad night?) Auburn. All Aboard! Slam! That was the sound of Rudi Johnson and Auburn slamming the door that Ole Miss and Alabama left open. Or maybe Auburn is the big bad wolf, and Mississippi has a house of sticks and the Tide a house of straw. Auburn will not pull a 1993, in which they surprisingly went 11-0, but they may pull a 1997, where they overacheived and made the SEC championship. TCU. All Aboard! Here's the thing about TCU. The bandwagon is trotting at a leisurely pace down the middle lane of an 15-lane highway with absolutely no traffic. They would have to really do some ungodly bad driving to get derailed! |
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