 The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
And now a commentary that has become an October tradition on the SJS home page: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. Every year just past the midpoint of the season I like to take a look at The Good (teams who have yet to lose), The Bad (teams who have yet to win), and The Ugly (losses by Division I-A teams to Division I-AA teams). This year there are surprisingly few Good teams to review, and more than our share of winless wonders. The order last year was reversed, with many more teams in the hunt for a perfect season than for the most imperfect season. Last year, of course, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Marshall all made it to the end of the regular slate without a loss. This year, 3 undefeated teams would be pretty remarkable, especially since either Oklahoma or Nebraska must go. On the other side of the coin, several winless teams will face each other, sparing one and making the other all the more embarassed.
The Good...
Team: Texas Christian (5-0) |
| Likelihood: Probable |
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A lot of people predicted in, and now it looks sure to come true: TCU may go undefeated. The predictors forsaw that only Northwestern was a tough game, and Northwestern was terrible. But, in fact, TCU's win over Northwestern now looks great seeing that the Wildcats are Rose Bowl-possible. The toughest game left is probably on the road against San Jose State. The Spartans have looked good this year, including a win over Stanford. The Horned Frogs are still the favorite behind LaDanian Tomlinson. After San Jose State, the debate will rage about whether TCU deserves a BCS bid. They are in if they finish in the top 6, but even at 11-0 that is no lock.
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Team: Virginia Tech (6-0) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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Who'd have thought that Virginia Tech would be so good after losing so many key players to the NFL draft? Their defense does seemed to have suffered a bit, but their offense, behind quarterback Michael Vick, hasn't missed a beat. The Hokies have a very tough test on November 4 when they play at Miami. Florida State, a team I thought was a lock to go undefeated, found out it is not so easy to win in the Orange Bowl. Whereas Michael Vick will be a lot tougher to sack than Chris Weinke, though, Miami will find it much easier to move the ball against Tech than against FSU. (Addendum, 10/20/00 - Actually this statement is misleading, as expert CoconutHead points out. Miami was not able to sack Chris Weinke.) Look for a high scoring game with the outcome in doubt until late. If they pass this test, a national championship game-- back in that same Orange Bowl-- looks good for Virginia Tech. |
Team: Oklahoma (6-0) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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Oklahoma has been tremendous. With great defensive minds at head coach and coordinator (Bobby and Mike Stoops) and one of the best arial attacks in the country behind quarterback Josh Heupel, the Sooners may be playing the best football in the country right now. Although they may be the strongest team, their road to an undefeated season is still quite treacherous. At the end of October, the Sooner play Nebraska, number one in the country. On November 11, Oklahoma gets Texas A&M, a team playing better and better football as the season wears on. Unlike earlier wins against Kansas State and Texas, however, both Nebraska and Texas A&M visit. Still, if the Sooners survive those games, they still have to win the Big Twelve Championship against Nebraska or Kansas State at a neutral site. With a better reputation and an early season loss, a one loss Oklahoma would have a strong enough resume to still play for a national championship. But a loss late in the season will surely keep them out. So an undefeated slate is a must for Oklahoma's Orange Bowl hopes. |
Team: Clemson (7-0) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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Clemson was good last year but they are great this year. Woody Dantzler has matured into a Michael Vick-like performer, and the Tigers defense is as good as any in the country. Tommy Bowden has done an amazing job now at two different schools. Unlike the Tulane situation in 1998, however, an undefeated season at Clemson means a shot at the national title. The Tigers haven't really played any stiff competition yet, and the season boils down to two games: at Florida State and home against Sout Carolina. The Tigers really should have the talent to win the in state rivalry, but probably not the Bowden-Bowden rivalry. Depending on the TCU situation and whether Notre Dame emerges at 9-2, a one loss Clemson could still make a BCS game. |
Team: Nebraska (6-0) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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The number one team in the land is, right now, my least likely to succeed. The reason: they haven't done as much to prove themselves as has Oklahoma, and they have just as tough a closing slate. The Cornhuskers still have to play at Oklahoma and at Kansas State: neither game would be a gimme at home, but on the road going 2-0 could be impossible. And if that isn't enough, a rematch with the Sooners would loom in the Big Twelve Championship. If Nebraska does run this slate undefeated, they are a lock to play for the national championship and would be favored over anybody else.
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Conclusion: The most likely BCS championship game is Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma if the game is a battle of undefeateds. But the road is so tough for all of these teams that Florida, Florida State, and Miami, or possibly a one-loss Big Twelve Champion, all look to have about an equal shot at this point.
...The Bad...
Back in August, I made the prediction that no teams would go winless. I also made the now laughable prediction that Northwestern had about the best chance. In reality, there are some really good possibilities from this bumber crop of winless teams.
Team: Arkansas State (0-7) |
| Likelihood: Probable |
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It is interesting to note that last year's most likely to go winless team in this space was South Carolina! The Gamecocks did, in fact, go 0-11, but this year have a fair shot at winning the SEC East. South Carolina is this year's Hawaii, from 0-11 to bowl team. The Arkansas State Indians get this year's honor. They were terrible when they were an independent and they are terrible now as a member of the soon-to-be-defunct Big West. Remaining chances are all conference games, but North Texas at home on November 11 is really the only great chance for a win. |
Team: Duke (0-6) |
| Likelihood: Probable |
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The Blue Devils come in second in our least likely to succeed. Duke's game the past couple of years has been dubbed "Air Franks" highlighting their return to their late-80s wide open style. Problem is, Air Franks is averaging less than 10 points a game. Wide open is not working. Maryland is the easiest home game left, but the Terps should be embarassed to lose it. The best chance for a win is against winless Wake Forest, but that game is on the road. So the team that lost 2 million dollars to a female place kicker couldn't do any worse with an entire team of female placekickers.
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Team: Navy (0-6) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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Navy is the one of two teams on this list lucky enough to have to hapless teams remaining: and Wake Forest and Army both visit. Also possible are games against Rutgers and Tulane. The problem is that all of those teams are truly superior to the Midshipmen. Objectively the odds are on their side to win one of the remaining games, probably Army, but Army often beats Navy even when Navy is superior. So don't count on a win from this crowd.
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Team: Army (0-6) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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What a lousy year for the academies. Army did almost beat Houston, so there is some hope. The Cadets' best hope, of course, is the game against Navy. The other C-USA cupcake is Tulane, whom Army gets at home. So there is more than a fair chance for Army to grab a win, or dare I say, even two. |
Team: Louisiana-Lafayette (0-7) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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The Ragin' Cajuns have a cool nickname. And therein ends my dissertation on what's great about Louisiana-Lafayette football. They were bad when they were SW Louisiana, and they are worse now. The Ragin Cajuns still have beatable in state rival Louisiana Monroe (these sound like high school names!) along with North Texas and Middle Tennessee State, both at home. North Texas is probably the best chance. Luckily, the Cajuns also host Jacksonville State, but having already suffered losses to Division I-AA Sam Houston State and Northwestern State, even that isn't a gimme.
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Team: Wake Forest (0-6) |
| Likelihood: Possible |
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Demon Deacons quarterback C.J. Leak got more press as an ACC recruit than anybody since Ronald Curry... and, well, Leak's Wake Forest team has been even more disappointing than Curry's Tar Heels. And now that C.J. Leak is out for the season with a knee injury, the Deacons' fortunes look very dim indeed. The bright spot in their apperance on my The Bad list is that they appear last, and therefore are dubbed my least likely to finish undefeated. Why? They have two winless rivals on their schedule: Duke and at Navy. One or both will be a win. The Deacons also have an outside shot at beating Maryland, but the game there is in College Park so they are more likely to pick up the win elsewhere.
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Conclusion: I could still be right that no one will finish without a win, but more likely Arkansas State and or Navy will steal the honor. The biggest upset is that no MAC team is on the danger list, unlike last year. Kent, Buffalo, Bowling Green, and Ball State all picked up wins. And so, we should add, did UConn.
...And The Ugly
Here is a list of Division I-AA wins against Division I-A opponents, from most to least
surprising:
| Portland State 45, Hawaii 20. |
| Montana 45, Idaho 38 |
| SW Texas State 27, Louisiana-Monroe 0 |
| Appalachian State 20, Wake Forest 16 |
| Western Illinois 24, Ball State 14 |
| Stephen F. Austin 34, Louisiana Tech 31 |
| Youngstown State 26, Kent 20 |
| Richmond 30, Arkansas State 27 |
| Northeastern 35, UConn 27 |
| Northwestern State 23, Louisiana Lafayette 21 |
| Sam Houston State 21, Louisiana Lafayette 16 |
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